Welcome to Edition 6.21 of the Rocket Report!
Someone is always watching, and it's more difficult than ever to hide bad news. This is one of my mantras as a reporter who will always come down on the side of transparency. We've seen space companies and government agencies in the United States try to downplay setbacks, which, let's face it, are inevitable in the space business. In China, it looks like a recent test-firing of a rocket motor didn't go well. Unsurprisingly, Chinese officials haven't said a thing.
As always, we welcome reader submissions, and if you don't want to miss an issue, please subscribe using the box below (the form will not appear on AMP-enabled versions of the site). Each report will include information on small-, medium-, and heavy-lift rockets, as well as a quick look ahead at the next three launches on the calendar.
Something exploded at a Chinese spaceport. A Chinese launch vehicle maker appears to have suffered an explosion at a test site at Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center, Space News reports. Satellite images show what are likely test stand facilities and the apparent aftermath of an exhaust plume from a hot fire test on the desert surface. Charred debris can be seen scattered across the surrounding area. The images were published on the social media platform X by Harry Stranger, who uses satellite imagery to track space industry developments. The facility is likely operated by the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corp. (CASIC), a state-owned enterprise that builds the solid-fueled Kuaizhou rocket.
Sleuthing for evidence ... Stranger posted about the explosion on X and used satellite images from several sources to pinpoint the time of the explosion to sometime on November 21 or 22. A similar explosion on the same test stand at Jiuquan occurred in October 2021. We can presume the explosion was likely related to a ground test of solid-fueled motors for the Kuaizhou 1A or Kuaizhou 11 rocket, which can haul payloads of several hundred kilograms to a metric ton into low-Earth orbit. The Kuaizhou rocket family is one of several small Chinese rockets in this lift class. Chinese officials haven't acknowledged the explosion. It goes to show that you can't hide an incident of this size. (submitted by Ken the Bin and martialartstechie)
The world's spaceports are busier than ever. Led by SpaceX and China, the world's launch providers have put more rockets and payloads into orbit so far in 2023 than in any prior year, continuing an upward trend in launch activity over the last five years, Ars reports. The flight of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral, Florida, on November 22 was the 180th launch of 2023 to put its payload into orbit, eclipsing the mark of 179 successful orbital launches from last year. Global launch activity stagnated after the end of the Cold War, when Russia, and to a lesser extent the United States, cut back on their military space programs. For nearly 30 years, the record number of orbital launches in a calendar year stood at 129, a tally from 1984. In 2005, only 52 rockets made their way into orbit.
No turning back? ... SpaceX has launched 89 times so far this year, with 87 successful flights to reach orbit. Chinese rockets are 53-for-54. At this rate, SpaceX is on track for around 100 launches this year, with about 200 orbital missions worldwide. You can bet on more than 200 launches in 2024 if SpaceX achieves its goal of flying 12 times per month, which would give the company 144 launches during the course of the year. China's launch tally next year will likely be similar to this year's number.
New money for rocket propulsion startup Ursa Major. At a time when economic conditions are making it harder for startups to raise money, Ursa Major's announcement this week of $138 million in fundraising got our attention. Ars discussed the plans for this Colorado-based company in last week's Rocket Report, when Ursa Major's CEO said the startup sees an opportunity to use 3D printing to disrupt the industry that produces solid rocket motors for military and spaceflight applications. Since then, Ursa Major revealed Series D and D-1 fundraising rounds that brought in $138 million from venture capital firms and institutional investors.
Funding Lynx ... Ursa Major says this new funding will go toward the company's Lynx solid rocket motor program, which will use advanced manufacturing techniques to produce rocket motors ranging in size from 2 inches to 22.5 inches in diameter. Rocket motors of this size can be used in a variety of military missiles, such as air defense units and Stingers, that currently face bottlenecks in production and struggle to meet demand from the US military and allies. Ursa Major is also working on the 50,000-pound-thrust Ripley engine for sale to developers of small commercial launch vehicles, and Draper, a storable liquid engine designed to defend against hypersonic weapons. (submitted by Ken the Bin)
Firefly's fourth launch scheduled for December. Firefly Aerospace is preparing to launch its fourth Alpha rocket in December from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. This mission, which Firefly calls FLTA004, or "Fly the Lightning," will carry into orbit a small technology demonstration satellite for Lockheed Martin. The payload, named Tantrum and funded by Lockheed Martin, will test a new wideband Electronically Steerable Antenna design to demonstrate "faster on-orbit sensor calibration to deliver rapid capabilities" for the US military.
Another responsive launch ... Firefly and Lockheed Martin announced the launch contract for the Tantrum mission in June, about six months before the scheduled launch. Firefly's previous Alpha launch in September was part of a US Space Force responsive launch demonstration, in which the company proved it could integrate a small satellite payload with its Alpha rocket and launch it within 27 hours of receiving launch orders. Firefly says a secondary objective for the next Alpha launch will be to reduce the "total working hours" required from payload arrival at the launch site until launch readiness. "During the final launch operations, the mission team will encapsulate and mate the payload to Firefly’s Alpha rocket using a similar responsive timeline," Firefly said. This matches what Firefly's CEO, Bill Weber, said following the launch in September. At that time, Weber said Firefly would make its responsive launch capability a standard offering for future missions. (submitted by Ken the Bin)
Astra stays alive with $2.7 million in fundraising. Amid its struggle to stay afloat facing dwindling cash reserves and an unfriendly public market, Astra secured an additional $2.7 million from investors, Payload reports. The company will still need to secure long-term financing. This is the latest saga for Astra, which has seen its fundraising spigot dry up after its first orbital-class launcher, Rocket 3, failed to become a viable vehicle. Astra has pivoted to focus on producing small electric engines for satellites and announced mass layoffs earlier this year in a bid to right the ship. Most recently, the company's cofounders, Chris Kemp and Adam London, offered to take the company private. Astra went public
during the SPAC boom of 2021, when the company boasted a valuation of more than $2 billion.
Separating the wheat from the chaff ... Astra is fighting to avoid going the way of Virgin Orbit, which went bankrupt in May. Work on Astra's new launch vehicle, Rocket 4, has slowed to a crawl. Astra's spacecraft engines business, which it acquired when it bought Apollo Fusion in 2021, appears to be on more solid footing with demand from satellite constellation manufacturers. More news on Astra is sure to come soon because the company just doesn't have much financial runway in front of it. (submitted by Ken the Bin)
Ariane 6 finally has a launch schedule. One of the most common questions for European Space Agency officials this year has been "when will Europe's new Ariane 6 rocket launch for the first time?" It's running four years late, and its long-term future is up in the air after ESA recently announced the agency will open some of its launches to other rockets developed by European startups. Josef Aschbacher, ESA's director general, was unwavering in his refusal to be more specific than "2024" each time a reporter asked about the Ariane 6 launch schedule. Now, with a recent Ariane 6 hot fire test successfully complete, ESA announced Thursday that the first Ariane 6 rocket is on track for launch between June 15 and July 31 of next year.
A seven-minute engine test cleared the way ... The seven-minute test-firing on November 23 of an Ariane 6 rocket on its launch pad in French Guiana was the most significant test remaining on the rocket's road to liftoff, Ars reports. The test lasted 426 seconds while a full-size test model of the Ariane 6 rocket remained on its launch pad. For the rocket to actually take off, it would need to light its four strap-on solid-fueled boosters. That was not part of the plan for last week's test. The hot fire test lasted about a minute less than its planned duration, which officials from ESA and ArianeGroup blamed on a bad sensor and not a problem with the rocket or its main engine.
Firefly's Miranda engine ignites for the first time. For the first time, Firefly Aerospace has hot-fired the new Miranda engine it is developing to power two new medium-lift rockets being co-developed with Northrop Grumman. The Miranda engine burns kerosene and liquid oxygen but is significantly more powerful than the Reaver engine that Firefly uses on its smaller Alpha rocket. "The turbopump-fed engine test further validates the design of Miranda’s startup sequence, transient conditions, and tap-off engine architecture at a larger scale," Firefly said in a statement. Working at Firefly's test site in Central Texas, engineers will build up to a full-duration, 206-second Miranda hot fire test to fully qualify the Miranda engine for flight.
The power source for two new rockets ... Seven of these 230,000-pound-thrust engines will power the first stage of the Antares 330 rocket Firefly and Northrop Grumman are developing to replace the Antares 230, which launched for the final time in August. The Antares rocket family has exclusively been used to launch Northrop Grumman's Cygnus cargo ships on resupply flights to the International Space Station. The Antares 230 used Russian engines on its first stage, and Northrop Grumman no longer has access to these engines after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The next three Cygnus cargo ships will launch on SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets, and the Antares 330 is due to resume launching Cygnus missions in 2025. After the Antares 330, Northrop Grumman and Firefly are partnering on a Medium Launch Vehicle (MLV) to compete for a broader range of launch contracts with NASA, the US military, and commercial customers. Seven Miranda engines will also power the first stage of the MLV, along with a vacuum variant of Miranda on the second stage. (submitted by Ken the Bin)
A Chinese company is developing a stainless steel rocket. Chinese launch startup LandSpace has unveiled plans to develop a reusable stainless steel rocket, Space News reports. The Zhuque-3 (Vermillion Bird 3) rocket will use stainless propellant tanks and clusters of Tianque methane-liquid oxygen propellant rocket engines, according to a presentation by LandSpace's CEO last week. The two-stage launcher will have a payload capacity of 20 metric tons to low-Earth orbit (LEO) when expendable. Recovery of the first stage downrange will allow 16.5 tons to LEO, while a landing back at the launch site will offer a capacity of 11 tons to LEO. A render of the rocket shows grid fins and deployable landing legs on the first stage.
Following the lead ... Talk of a reusable stainless steel rocket with methane-fueled engines immediately makes one think of SpaceX's Starship. LandSpace seems to be a leader among the crop of Chinese commercial startups that are developing rockets outside the bounds of the country's traditional roster of state-owned enterprises. In July, LandSpace launched its expendable Zhuque 2 rocket, which became the first methane-fueled launcher to successfully achieve orbit, beating a bevy of US rockets to the milestone. Methane is favored for reusable rockets because it leaves less residue inside engines than kerosene fuel. Another Chinese launch company, Space Pioneer, is developing a Falcon 9-class medium to heavy lift kerosene-fueled rocket that could fly next year. LandSpace has not disclosed a tentative test launch date and the dimensions of its planned Zhuque 3 rocket, suggesting the plan is at a very early stage, according to Space News. (submitted by Ken the Bin and EllPeaTea)
China is making progress on a Raptor-like engine. China is progressing with a program to develop full-flow staged-combustion-cycle methane engines to power its reusable Long March 9 super heavy-lift launcher, Space News reports. These engines are similar in design to SpaceX's Raptor, which powers the Super Heavy booster and Starship rocket. The Long March 9 itself appears similar in design and capability to Starship, and China says it will eventually have reusable boosters and upper stages. There are 33 Raptors on SpaceX's Super Heavy, and the Long March 9, planned for a debut in 2033, will have 26 of China's new methalox engines.
Design and test ... The most recent update on the development of China's new methalox engine comes from a paper published by authors from the Xi’an Aerospace Propulsion Institute, a liquid propulsion design unit of the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corp., China's largest government-owned aerospace contractor. The authors said China's foundations for developing a full-flow staged-combustion-cycle methalox engine are relatively weak, but this is a focus area for China's space program. Chinese rocket designers unveiled the new architecture for the Long March 9 in 2022 and 2023, after previously planning an expendable super heavy lift rocket based on kerosene/liquid oxygen engines. (submitted by Ken the Bin and Tfargo04)
Starship V2 in the works. With just two Starship integrated test flights under its belt, SpaceX announced last week that it is already working on a major overhaul of its second-stage Starship vehicle, Payload reports. The design changes will be significant enough to speciate the ship, giving it the title of Version 2. SpaceX plans to finish and launch four or five additional Starship V1 prototypes before transitioning to its V2 product line, Elon Musk said on X. Insights gained from the upcoming flights will be integrated into the next-gen rocket.
What will be on V2?… Musk didn't detail what would be incorporated on Starship V2, but we can expect it will fly with upgraded versions of SpaceX's Raptor engines, called Raptor 3. It may also include nine Raptor engines rather than the six flying on the current iteration of Starship. Musk has previously discussed the possibility of enlarging the propellant tanks on future Starships, increasing the rocket's payload lift capability. These stretched tanks would allow more methane and liquid oxygen to fit onto the rocket. (submitted by Ken the Bin)
Next three launches
December 1: Falcon 9 | 425 Project & Rideshares | Vandenberg Space Force Base, California | 18:19 UTC
December 2: Falcon 9 | Starlink 6-31 | Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida | 04:01 UTC
December 4: Long March 2C | Unknown Payload | Jiuquan, China | 04:10 UTC
Dec. 1, 2023: This story was updated after the liftoff of the Progress MS-25 mission to update the list of upcoming launches, and to correct the name of Firefly's next launch.
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