Abstract
The objective of this study was to propose bioclimatic zoning to classify human thermal comfort and discomfort in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil; both historical and future scenarios are considered. Thus, historical series (1961 to 2017) of the effective temperature index as a function of the wind (ETW) were obtained as a function of the monthly average values of the minimum, mean, and maximum dry-bulb air temperatures (tdb,min, tdb,mean, and tdb,max, respectively), in addition to the mean relative humidity (\({\text{RH}}\), %) and mean wind speed (\({\text{V}}\), m s −1). The data were obtained from 34 weather stations and subjected to trend analysis by using the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test, thus enabling the simulation of future scenarios (for 2028 and 2038). Then, to define the thermal ranges of the bioclimatic zoning, maps of ETWmin, ETWmean, and ETWmax were created from geostatistical analysis. Overall, the results show warming trends for the upcoming years in Minas Gerais municipalities. All climatic seasons showed an increase in the frequency of new classifications in the upper adjacent classes, which indicates climate warming. Therefore, when considering future scenarios for the autumn and winter seasons, attention should be given to changes in predicted thermal sensation, especially in the Central Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte Metropolitan, South/Southwest Minas, Campo das Vertentes, and Zona da Mata.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
The data presented in the current study are available on request from the corresponding author.
References
Ahmad I, Tang D, Wang T, Wang M, Wagan B (2015) Precipitation trends over time using Mann-Kendall and spearman’s rho tests in swat river basin. Pak Adv Meteorol 2015:431860. https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/431860
Alvares CA, Sentelhas PC, Dias HB (2022) Southeastern Brazil inland tropicalization: Köppen system applied for detecting climate change throughout 100 years of meteorological observed data. Theoret Appl Climatol 149(3):1431–1450. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04122-4
Amaro AL, Yanagi Junior T, Yanagi SDN, Ferraz GAS, Campos AT (2018) Climate change and rural workers thermal comfort: historical and future impacts. Engenharia Agrícola 38:173–179. https://doi.org/10.1590/1809-4430-Eng.Agric.v38n2p173-179/2018
Aparecido LEDO, Rolim GDS, Moraes JRDSCD, Rocha HG, Lense GHE, Souza PS (2017) Agroclimatic zoning for urucum crops in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Bragantia 77:193–200. https://doi.org/10.1590/1678-4499.2016527
Ávila LF, Mello CRD, Yanagi SDNM, Sacramento Neto OB (2014) Tendências de temperaturas mínimas e máximas do ar no Estado de Minas Gerais. Pesq Agrop Brasileira 49:247–256. https://doi.org/10.1590/S0100-204X2014000400002
Avila-Diaz A, Benezoli V, Justino F, Torres R, Wilson A (2020) Assessing current and future trends of climate extremes across Brazil based on reanalyses and earth system model projections. Clim Dyn 55(5–6):1403–1426. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05333-z
Borges VCAL, Callejas IJA, Durante LC (2020) Thermal sensation in outdoor urban spaces: a study in a Tropical Savannah climate. Brazil Int J Biometeorol 64(3):533–545. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-019-01830-x
Cândido C, Dear RJ, Lamberts R, Bittencourt L (2010) Air movement acceptability limits and thermal comfort in Brazil’s hot humid climate zone. Build Environ 45:222–229. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2009.06.005
Chandel SS, Sharma V, Marwah BM (2016) Review of energy efficient features in vernacular architecture for improving indoor thermal comfort conditions. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 65:459–477. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.07.038
Chattopadhyay G, Chakraborthy P, Chattopadhyay S (2012) Mann-Kendall trend analysis of tropospheric ozone and its modeling using ARIMA. Theoret Appl Climatol 110(3):321–328. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0617-y
Coêlho MSZS, Gonçalves LTF, Latorre MRDO (2010) Statistical analysis aiming at predicting respiratory tract disease hospital admissions from environmental variables in the city of São Paulo. J Environ Public Health 2010:209270. https://doi.org/10.1155/2010/209270
Conceição RS, Silveira GDSP, Veiga AJP, Matta JMB (2015) A temperatura do ar e sua relação com algumas doenças respiratórias em Vitória da Conquista–BA. Revista Geoaraguaia 5:2
Costa RL, Baptista GM, Gomes HB, Silva FD, Rocha Júnior RL, Nedel AS (2021) Analysis of future climate scenarios for northeastern Brazil and implications for human thermal comfort. An Acad Bras Ciênc 93(1):e20190651. https://doi.org/10.1590/0001-3765202120190651
Damasceno FA, Ferraz GAS, Oliveira CEA, Osorio-Saraz JA, Brandão LF (2018) Study the spatial variability of the noise levels inside two commercial poultry housing with different adiabatic evaporative cooling systems. Dyna 85(207):9–15. https://doi.org/10.15446/dyna.v85n207.59724
Dobbert LY, Prata-Shimomura AR, Mendes FH (2015) Avaliação da interferência da cobertura arbórea no desempenho térmico por meio de simulação computacional. IN: XIII Encontro Nacional e IX Encontro Latinoamericano de Conforto no Ambiente Construído. Anais... Rio de Janeiro
Dunn RJH, Alexander LV, Donat MG, Zhang X, Bador M, Herold N, Lippmann T, Allan R, Aguilar E, Barry AA, Brunet M, Caesar J, Chagnaud G, Cheng V, Cinco T, Durre I, Guzman R, Htay TM, Wan Ibadullah WM, Bin Ibrahim MKI, Khoshkam M, Kruger A, Kubota H, Leng TW, Lim G, Li-Sha L, Marengo J, Mbatha S, McGree S, Menne M, de los Milagros Skansi M, Ngwenya S, Nkrumah F, Oonariya C, Pabon-Caicedo JD, Panthou G, Pham C, Rahimzadeh F, Ramos A, Salgado E, Salinger J, Sané Y, Sopaheluwakan A, Srivastava A, Sun Y, Timbal B, Trachow N, Trewin B, van der Schrier G, Vazquez-Aguirre J, Vasquez R, Villarroel C, Vincent L, Vischel T, Vose R, Bin Hj Yussof MNA (2020) Development of an updated global land in situ-based data set of temperature and precipitation extremes: HadEX3. J Geophys Res-Atmos 125(16):1–39. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032263
Franco LB, Silva SDA (2016) Interpolation methods for the description of the spatial dependence of the leaf chlorophyll content in cocoa trees. Agrotrópica (Brazil) 28:13–22. https://doi.org/10.21757/0103-3816.2016
Garcia SR, Santos DF, Martins FB, Torres RR (2018) Aspectos climatológicos associados ao cultivo da oliveira (Olea europaea L.) em Minas Gerais. Revista Brasileira De Climatologia 22:188–209. https://doi.org/10.5380/abclima.v22i0.56825
Gasparrini A, Guo Y, Hashizume M, Lavigne E, Zanobetti A, Schwartz J, Armstrong B (2015) Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study. The Lancet 386(9991):369–375. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(14)62114-0
Geirinhas JL, Trigo RM, Libonati R, Coelho CAS, Palmeira AC (2018) Climatic and synoptic characterization of heat waves in Brazil. Int J Climatol 38(4):1760–1776. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5294
Geirinhas JL, Trigo RM, Libonati R, Castro LC, Sousa PM, Coelho CA, Avelar FMM (2019) Characterizing the atmospheric conditions during the 2010 heatwave in Rio de Janeiro marked by excessive mortality rates. Sci Total Environ 650:796–808. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.060
Gobo JPA, Galvani E (2012) Aplicação do Índice de temperatura efetiva com vento (TEV) nos estudos de conforto térmico para o estado do Rio Grande do Sul. Revista Geonorte 3(8):403–413
Gobo JPA, Borges DC, Baratto J, Silveira TS, Onça DS, Faria MR, Galvani E (2017) Avaliação da percepção climática de homens e mulheres e do conforto térmico em Santa Maria–RS. Boletim Paulista De Geografia 96:31–50
Hajat S, Vardoulakis S, Heaviside C, Eggen B (2014) Climate change effects on human health: projections of temperature-related mortality for the UK during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. J Epidemiol Community Health 68(7):641–648. https://doi.org/10.1136/jech-2013-202449
Huber JH, Childs ML, Caldwell JM, Mordecai EA (2018) Seasonal temperature variation influences climate suitability for dengue, chikungunya, and Zika transmission. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 1(5):e0006451. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0006451
Hyrkäs-Palmu H, Ikäheimo TM, Laatikainen T, Jousilahti P, Jaakkola MS, Jaakkola JJ (2018) Cold weather increases respiratory symptoms and functional disability especially among patients with asthma and allergic rhinitis. Sci Rep 8(1):1–8. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-28466-y
IBGE (2022) Dados sobre o Estado de Minas Gerais. https://cidades.ibge.gov.br/brasil/mg/panorama (Accessed 25 October 2022).
INMET (2022) Normais Climatológicas do Brasil – Período: 1991–2020. https://portal.inmet.gov.br/normais# (Accessed 28 October 2022).
INMET (2023) Banco de dados meteorologicos. https://bdmep.inmet.gov.br/ (Accessed 07 August 2023).
Kendall MG (1975) Rank correlation methods. Charles Griffin, London
Kjellstrom T, Briggs D, Freyberg C, Lemke B, Otto M, Hyatt O (2016) Heat, human performance, and occupational health: a key issue for the assessment of global climate change impacts. Annu Rev Public Health 37:97–112. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-publhealth-032315-021740
Koeppen W (1948) Climatologia: Con un estudio de los climas de la tierra, 3rd edn. Fondo de Cultura Economica, Mexico, p 478
Krishnamurthy M, Ramalingam P, Perumal K, Kamalakannan LP, Chinnadurai J, Shanmugam R, Srinivasan K, Venugopal V (2017) Occupational heat stress impacts on health and productivity in a steel industry in Southern India. Saf Health Work 8:99–104. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.shaw.2016.08.005
Krüger EL, Drach P, Bröde P (2015) Implications of air-conditioning use on thermal perception in open spaces: a field study in downtown Rio de Janeiro. Build Environ 94:417–425. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2015.07.024
Krüger EL, Gobo JPA, Nedel AS, Gonçalves FLT, Lucio PS, Tejas GT, Piacenti-Silva M (2022) A first approach to human biometeorology research in Brazil: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Int J Biometeorol 66:1297–1315. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-022-02288-0
Labdaoui K, Mazouz S, Reiter S, Teller J (2021) Thermal perception in outdoor urban spaces under the Mediterranean climate of Annaba. Algeria Urban Climate 39:100970. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2021.100970
Li T, Ban J, Horton RM, Bader DA, Huang G, Sun Q, Kinney PL (2015) Heat-related mortality projections for cardiovascular and respiratory disease under the changing climate in Beijing. China Scientific Reports 5:11441. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep11441
Lima JSS, Souza GSD, Silva SDA (2013) Distribuição espacial da matéria orgânica, grau de floculação e argila dispersa em água em área de vegetação natural em regeneração e pastagem. Revista Árvore 37:539–546. https://doi.org/10.1590/S0100-67622013000300017
Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica J Econ Soc 13(3):245–259. https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187
Matos R, Ferreira RN (2017) Brasil em crise e o emprego formal no Sudeste. Caminhos De Geografia 18(61):150–164
Missenard A (1937) L'Homme et le climat. Biblioteca Plon, Paris
Natividade UA, Garcia SR, Torres RR (2017) Trend of observed and projected extreme climate indices in Minas Gerais state. Revista Brasileira De Meteorologia 32(4):600–614. https://doi.org/10.1590/0102-7786324008
Nedel AS, Gonçalves FLT, Macedo Junior C, Cardoso MRA (2015) Climatology of the human thermal comfort on São Paulo metropolitan area, Brazil: indoors and outdoors. Braz J Geophys 33(2):185–204. https://doi.org/10.22564/rbgf.v33i2.713
Nedel AS, Alonso MF, Freitas RAP, Trassante FC, Silva HN, Bortolli E, Vianna JCT (2021) Analysis of indoor human thermal comfort in Pelotas municipality, extreme southern Brazil. Int J Biometeorol 65(3):419–428. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-020-02015-7
Nick LM, Nedel AS, Alonso MF, Marques JQ, Freitas RAP (2022) Relationship between meteorological variables and pneumonia in children in the Metropolitan Region of Porto Alegre, Brazil. Int J Biometeorol 66:2301–3230. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-022-02357-4
Pallotta M, Herdies DL, Gonçalves LGGD (2015) Estudo das condições de tempo e conforto térmico no desempenho esportivo aplicado à maratona da cidade do Rio de Janeiro. Revista Brasileira De Meteorologia 30:223–240. https://doi.org/10.1590/0102-778620140052
Pantavou K, Santamouris M, Asimakopoulos D, Theoharatos G (2014) Empirical calibration of thermal indices in an urban outdoor Mediterranean environment. Build Environ 80:283–292. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2014.06.001
Panziera AG, Calil VS, Amaral FD, Swarowsky A (2015) Desempenho de diferentes tipos de telhado verde no conforto térmico urbano na cidade de Santa Maria, RS. Disciplinarum Sci Naturaise Tecnológicas 16(3):445–457
Pasquill F (1949) Eddy diffusion of water vapour and heat near the ground Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series A Math Phys Sci 198(1052):116–140. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.1949.0090
Phung D, Guo Y, Thai P, Rutherford S, Wang X, Nguyen M, Alam N, Chu C (2016) The effects of high temperature on cardiovascular admissions in the most populous tropical city in Vietnam. Environ Pollut 208:33–39. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2015.06.004
Qiu H, Sun S, Tang R, Chan KP, Tian L (2016) Pneumonia hospitalization risk in the elderly attributable to cold and hot temperatures in Hong Kong. China Am J Epidemiol 184(8):570–578. https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kww041
Quadro MF, Satyamurty P, Rodrigues TS, Herdies D, Gonçalves LG, Nascimento EL, Pallotta M (2021) Meteorological conditions and thermal comfort during the athletic events of the olympic games in Rio de Janeiro in 2016. An Acad Bras Ciênc 93(1):e20191113. https://doi.org/10.1590/0001-3765202120191113
Reboita MS, Rodrigues M, Silva LF, Alves MA (2015) Aspectos climáticos do estado de Minas Gerais. Revista Brasileira De Climatologia 17:206–226. https://doi.org/10.5380/abclima.v17i0.41493
Regoto P, Dereczynski C, Chou SC, Bazzanela AC (2021) Observed changes in air temperature and precipitation extremes over Brazil. Int J Climatol 41(11):5125–5142. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7119
Ribeiro H, Pesquero CR, Coelho MDSZS (2016) Clima urbano e saúde: uma revisão sistematizada da literatura recente. Estudos Avançados 30:67–82. https://doi.org/10.1590/S0103-40142016.00100005
Ribeiro Junior PJ, Diggle PJ (2001) GeoR: a package for geostatistical analysis. R-News, New York 1(2):14–18
Salviano MF, Groppo JD, Pellegrino GQ (2016) Análise de tendências em dados de precipitação e temperatura no Brasil. Revista Brasileira De Meteorologia 31:64–73. https://doi.org/10.1590/0102-778620150003
Santos JB, Amorim RF, Cavalcante LP (2014) Análise do conforto térmico humano no município de Arapiraca-Alagoas, utilizando software Matlab. Revista Brasileira De Geografia Fisica 7:939–948
Shang L, Liao J, Xie S, Tu Z, Liao H, Zhong K (2022) Dynamic changes in the thermal growing season and their association with atmospheric circulation in China. Int J Biometeorol 66(3):545–558. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-021-02215-9
Silva IR, Nedel AS, Marques JRQ, Nolasco Júnior LR (2019) Excess of children’s outpatient consultations due to asthma and bronchitis and the association between meteorological variables in Canoas City, Southern Brazil. Int J Biometeorol 63(11):1517–1524. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-018-1650-z
Silva VC, Nascimento RS, Neto JPL, Lopes FFM, Miranda JR, Furtado DA (2022a) Animal thermal comfort index for the state of Paraíba, Brazil: trend, influencing factors, and mitigating measures. Theoret Appl Climatol 147(1):523–534. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03849-w
Silva RS, Silva RM, Freitas AF, Santos JS, Santos CAG, Lima ERV (2022b) Thermal comfort conditions at microclimate scale and surface urban heat island in a tropical city: a study on João Pessoa city. Braz Int J Biometeorol 66(6):1079–1093. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-022-02260-y
Skansi MM, Brunet M, Sigró J, Aguilar E, Groening JAA, Bentancur OJ, Castellón Geier YR, Amaya RLC, Jácome H, Ramos AM, Rojas CO, Pasten AM, Mitro SS, Jiménez CV, Martínez R, Alexander LV, Jones PD (2013) Warming and wetting signals emerging from analysis of changes in climate extreme indices over South America. Global Planet Change 100:295–307. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.11.004
Sneyers R (1975) Sur l’analyse statistique des séries d’observations. O.M.M., Note Technique No 143, Gencve, Suisse
Souza DM, Nery JT (2013) O conforto térmico na perspectiva da climatologia geográfica. Geografia (londrina) 21(2):65–83
Suping Z, Guanglin M, Yanwen W, Ji L (1992) Study of the relationships between weather conditions and the marathon race, and of meteorotropic effects on distance runners. Int J Biometeorol 36(2):63–68. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01208915
Van Wyk H (2016) The common cold and influenza: colds & flu. SA Pharmacist's Assist 16(1):7–10. https://doi.org/10.10520/EJC187306
Veiga MM, Almeida R, Duarte F (2016) O desconforto térmico provocado pelos equipamentos de proteção individual (EPI) utilizados na aplicação de agrotóxicos. Laboreal 12:2. https://doi.org/10.4000/laboreal.2540
Zivin JG, Shrader J (2016) Temperature extremes, health, and human capital. Future Child 26:31–50
Funding
This study was partially supported by the Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel, Brazil (CAPES), Financial Code 001. The authors are grateful for the financial support for this research.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Oliveira, L.R., Yanagi Junior, T., Ferraz, G.A.e. et al. Spatiotemporal variability in human thermal comfort perception in open-air spaces: application to the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Int J Biometeorol 68, 479–494 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-023-02606-0
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-023-02606-0