Abstract
Warming climate and thawing permafrost have profound impacts on groundwater flow regimes in cold regions because of the shrinkage or disappearance of the confining unit formed by the permafrost layers and improving hydraulic connections. Numerical simulations of coupled groundwater flow and heat transfer are often used to characterize the changing permafrost hydrogeology. In this study, a number of scenarios for different hydraulic gradients and lake-water depths have been used to simulate the concordant permafrost evolution and groundwater movement using a two-dimensional cylindrical coordinate model at time scales of decades to centuries in response to a warming climate. The model is applied to a representative headwater catchment in the south-central headwater area of the Yellow River on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China. The results show that the presence and movement of groundwater and the deeper subpermafrost aquifer can substantially accelerate permafrost degradation, and the disappearance of residual permafrost at depth can result in the sudden establishment of deep groundwater flow paths. All hydrological impacts will become evident after the stabilization of the hydrothermal and flow fields at 100–200 years. The stable discharge rate of groundwater flow varies from 8.0 to 12.4 m3 s−1, and the stable velocity of groundwater flow varies from 1.6 × 10−7 to 4.4 × 10−7 m s−1 under different scenarios within the model domain. The modeling results also demonstrate that flow velocity and discharge rate in local groundwater flow systems can be enhanced by an increased hydraulic conductivity, leading to an accelerated degradation of isolated permafrost bodies.
Résumé
Le réchauffement climatique et la fonte du pergélisol ont des impacts en profondeur sur le régime d’écoulement des eaux souterraines dans les régions froides, en raison de la diminution ou de la disparition de l’unité de confinement formée par les couches du pergélisol et de l’amélioration des connexions hydrauliques. Les simulations numériques couplées de l’écoulement des eaux souterraines et du transfert de chaleur sont souvent utilisées pour caractériser les changements de l’hydrogéologie du pergélisol. Dans la présente étude, plusieurs scénarios, correspondant à différents gradients hydrauliques et niveaux du lac, ont été utilisés pour simuler l’évolution concomitante du pergélisol et du mouvement des eaux souterraines, à l’aide d’un modèle bi-dimensionnel en coordonnées cylindriques, à des échelles de temps allant de plusieurs décennies à plusieurs siècles, en réponse à un réchauffement climatique. Le modèle est appliqué à un bassin amont représentatif situé dans la région centre-sud amont du Fleuve Jaune, sur le Plateau du Qinghai-Tibet, en Chine. Les résultats montrent que la présence et le mouvement des eaux souterraines et l’aquifère profond sous-jacent au pergélisol peuvent accélérer substantiellement la dégradation du pergélisol et que la disparition du pergélisol résiduel en profondeur peut entrainer l’instauration brutale de chemins d’écoulement souterrain profonds. L’ensemble des impacts hydrologiques deviendront manifestes après la stabilisation des champs hydrothermaux et hydrodynamiques dans 100 à 200 années. Le débit stabilisé de la décharge de l’écoulement souterrain varie de 8.0 à 12.4 m3s−1 et la vitesse stabilisée de l’écoulement souterrain varie de 1.6 × 10−7 à 4.4 × 10−7 ms−1 pour les différents scénarios à l’intérieur du domaine modélisé. Les résultats de la modélisation montrent également que la vitesse d’écoulement et le taux de décharge des systèmes locaux d’écoulement d’eau souterraine peuvent augmentés par une conductivité hydraulique plus élevée, ce qui conduit à une dégradation accélérée des corps isolés de pergélisol.
Resumen
El calentamiento global y el deshielo del permafrost tienen profundas repercusiones en los regímenes de flujo de las aguas subterráneas de las regiones frías, debido a la contracción o desaparición de la unidad de confinamiento formada por las capas de permafrost y a la mejora de las conexiones hidráulicas. Para caracterizar la hidrogeología de los cambios en el permafrost se suelen utilizar simulaciones numéricas del flujo acoplado de aguas subterráneas y de la transferencia de calor. En este estudio, se han utilizado varios escenarios para diferentes gradientes hídricos y niveles lacustres con el fin de simular la evolución concordante del permafrost y el movimiento de las aguas subterráneas utilizando un modelo bidimensional de coordenadas cilíndricas a escalas temporales de décadas a siglos en respuesta a un calentamiento global. El modelo se aplica a una cuenca representativa de la cabecera sur-central del río Amarillo (HAYR) en el noreste de la meseta Qinghai-Tíbet (QTP), China. Los resultados muestran que la presencia y el movimiento de las aguas subterráneas y del acuífero subpermafrost más profundo pueden acelerar sustancialmente la degradación del permafrost, y la desaparición del permafrost residual en profundidad puede dar lugar al repentino surgimiento de vías de flujo de aguas subterráneas profundas. Todos los impactos hidrológicos se harán evidentes tras la estabilización de los campos hidrotermales y de flujo a los 100–200 años. La tasa de descarga estable del flujo de agua subterránea varía de 8.0 a 12.4 m3 s−1, y la velocidad estable del flujo de agua subterránea varía de 1.6 × 10−7 a 4.4 × 10−7 m s−1 bajo diferentes escenarios dentro del dominio del modelo. Los resultados de la modelización también demuestran que la velocidad del flujo y la tasa de descarga en los sistemas de flujo de aguas subterráneas locales pueden aumentar debido a una mayor conductividad hidráulica, lo que conduce a una degradación acelerada de los cuerpos aislados de permafrost.
摘要
由于冻土层形成的隔水层的减薄或消失以及水力联系的改善,气候变暖和冻土融化对寒区地下水流态产生了深远的影响。地下水流动与热传导耦合的数值模拟常用于表征冻土水文地质的变化。本研究针对不同的水力梯度和湖泊水位,采用二维柱坐标模型,在几十年至几个世纪的时间尺度上,模拟了在气候变暖响应下的冻土演变和地下水运动。将模型应用于青藏高原东北部黄河源区中南部 (HAYR)的一个代表性流域。结果显示,地下水和位于永久冻土之下的更深的含水层的存在和运动可以显著加速多年冻土的退化,深部残留冻土的消失会导致深层地下水流动路径的突然形成。在100–200年水热场和流场稳定后,所有的水文效应都将更加显著。模拟区域内不同情景下地下水稳定排泄速率变化范围为8.0 ~ 12.4 m3 s−1,地下水稳定流速变化范围为1.6 × 10−7 ~ 4.4 × 10−7 m s−1。模拟结果还表明,局部地下水流动系统中的流速和流量可以通过增加渗透系数来增强,导致孤立的冻土体加速退化。
Resumo
O aquecimento do clima e o degelo de pergelissolos têm impactos profundos nos regimes de fluxo das águas subterrâneas em regiões frias devido ao encolhimento ou desaparecimento da unidade confinante formada pelas camadas do pergelissolo e à melhoria das conexões hidráulicas. Simulações numéricas de fluxo de águas subterrâneas acoplados e transferência de calor são frequentemente usadas para caracterizar a mudança hidrogeológica do pergelissolo. Neste estudo, vários cenários para diferentes gradientes hidráulicos e níveis de lago foram usados para simular a evolução concordante do pergelissolo e o movimento das águas subterrâneas usando um modelo bidimensional de coordenadas cilíndricas em escalas de tempo de décadas à séculos em resposta a um aquecimento climático. O modelo é aplicado a uma bacia hidrográfica representativa na área de nascente centro-sul do Rio Amarelo (ANRA) no nordeste do Planalto Qinghai-Tibet (PQT), China. Os resultados mostram que a presença e o movimento das águas subterrâneas e do aquífero subpergelissolo mais profundo podem acelerar substancialmente a degradação do pergelissolo, e o desaparecimento do pergelissolo residual em profundidade pode resultar no estabelecimento súbito de caminhos de fluxo de águas subterrâneas profundas. Todos os impactos hidrológicos se tornarão evidentes após a estabilização dos campos hidrotermais e de fluxo em 100–200 anos. A taxa de descarga estável do fluxo de água subterrânea varia de 8.0 a 12.4 m3 s−1, e a velocidade estável do fluxo de água subterrânea varia de 1.6 × 10−7 a 4.4 × 10−7 m s−1 em diferentes cenários dentro do domínio do modelo. Os resultados da modelagem também demonstram que a velocidade do fluxo e a taxa de descarga nos sistemas locais de fluxo de águas subterrâneas podem ser aprimoradas por um aumento da condutividade hidráulica, levando a uma degradação acelerada de corpos isolados de pergelissolos.
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Acknowledgements
We thank the editorial office manager Susanne Schemann, the editors Martin Appold and Sarah G. Evans, and two anonymous reviewers for their assistance and insightful comments on the manuscript.
Funding
This work was supported by the Youth Science Fund Project of Science and Technology Plan of Gansu Province (Grand Nos. 20JR10RA240, 20JR10RA215 and 21JR7RA325); and the Young Scholars Science Foundation of Lanzhou Jiaotong University (Grand No. 2020046); and the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Strategic Priority Research Program “Changing permafrost hydrology in the Qilian Mountains and the Source Area of the Yellow River and its impacts on water supplies and security” (Grant No. XDA20100103).
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Gao, S., Jin, H., Wu, Q. et al. Analysis of groundwater flow through low-latitude alpine permafrost by model simulation: a case study in the headwater area of Yellow River on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China. Hydrogeol J 31, 789–811 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-023-02597-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-023-02597-7