How does Brazil plan to navigate a Third World War?

Brazil might appear to be far distant from any genuinely global wars, but the most powerful nation in South America is currently at a turning point that may place it in the sights of either the US or China in a third world war.

In the event of a third world war, how does Brazil intend to navigate it and whose side will it support?

Brazil ended up being involved in both world wars despite South America's seeming distance from Europe and lack of significant participation. Brazil assisted in policing the waterways of the south Atlantic and dispatched a small expeditionary force to the western front toward the conclusion of World War I, but in World War II it found itself taking on a more significant role. Most people might have believed that Brazil would once again support the allies when the war began, but in the two decades after the First World War, Brazil had seen enormous changes. It was now the ninth-largest economic partner of Germany and had a sizable German community who were all actively seeking to move Brazilian politics closer to a pro-German agenda.

Brazil kept its distance from the conflict and conducted business with both sides. Brazil would, nevertheless, gradually sway in the direction of the Allies, most notably with the establishment of the Joint Brazil-US Defense Commission, which was primarily concerned with preventing the Axis powers from using Brazil as a naval base of operations to attack US shipping lanes in the Atlantic. The Pan American States Conference was established in Rio de Janeiro by the US following the Japanese assault on Pearl Harbour and the US declaration of war against the Axis powers. There, the US proposed a trade: support us in exchange for breaking ties with the axis.

Brazil immediately severed connections with Germany, Japan, and Italy after agreeing. Brazil let the US to build air bases in the north of the nation in exchange for assistance in building its steel industry, with one of those stations growing to become the largest US installation outside the country. In order to strike enemy submarines and commerce ships, it also permitted the US Navy to post US Task Force 3 off its coast. With the US and China at odds over Taiwan and the security of the South Pacific, a third big conflict is now in the making, and Brazil could wind up having a lesser but crucial part. Brazil would probably attempt to maintain its neutral stance once more but inevitably pressure from China and the US would mount for Brazil to choose a side. Due to Brazil's extensive connections to both prospective adversaries, this could be more challenging than it was in either World War.

Brazil's largest commercial partner now, accounting for 31% of exports and over 23% of imports, is China. In contrast, the US exports 11% and buys nearly 18% of what it imports. Brazil is a major supplier of minerals to China, whose booming economy and enormous building boom have used up a considerable portion of the world's iron and steel. But because China's economic boom cannot remain indefinitely, the country's rate of building has drastically decreased and is predicted to continue decreasing. As a result, exports to China are probably also expected to decline. Brazil had a key role in the establishment of BRICS, a global trade organization made up of the developing nations of Brazil, Russia, India, and China, in 2001. South Africa would join the group in 2010, and together, by concentrating on the growth of developing economies, the organization's mission was to create an alternative to the western, US-dominated global economic system.

Although the BRICS organization is currently on uncertain ground, Brazil nonetheless remains loyal to it. Brazil is being compelled to reconsider its continuous alliance with these two countries as a result of Russia's catastrophic conflict in Ukraine and China's more belligerent threats towards Taiwan and its neighbours. At a time when its competitors anticipated western nations to primarily pursue their own self-serving agendas, the globe saw that the west could actually be united via the strengthening of the western position against Russia, an unexpected development from both the west and Russia. Emerging rivalries inside the organization itself are contributing to the stress.

Since decades, Sino-Indian ties have been slowly worsening with scores of deaths occurring in full-fledged border conflicts between forces using clubs and riot shields. Even India took the historic step of coming closer to a formal cooperation with the US and its Pacific allies as a result of the threat of a military confrontation with China. The informal group comprising the US, Japan, India and Australia known as "the Quad" has been gathering more frequently lately to address a range of Asian security issues with China being the main one on everyone's mind.

Despite Russia's boasts of a "no limits partnership," China has swiftly rectified this assertion a year later by asserting unequivocally that their relationship did, in fact, have clear limitations. Russia and China are also finding their relationship to be under increasing strain. Although it might seem like a natural fit given that China and Russia share many of the same international rivalries and see the liberal west as a threat to their own existence or at the very least the existence of their authoritarian leaders, China and Russia each have a number of problems that would make a partnership between them unfavourable. Russia's underlying weakness has been exposed by the conflict in Ukraine, and China has sensed an opportunity to impose its own influence over central Asian governments in order to secure supply of minerals from former Soviet republics and leverage Russia's dwindling power. Russia sees this as a direct threat to its own authority since it considers countries like Kazakhstan to be firmly inside its own sphere of influence. However, Russia is still trapped in the Soviet era and as a result, it is currently unsure of its ability to maintain its own republics.

At the same time as ethnic Russians are progressively leaving the region, Chinese businesses are investing more and more in the Russian Far East, and there is also an increase in both legal and illegal Chinese immigration. The Russian Far East, which is resource-rich will be significantly more Chinese than Russian in a few years, which might lead China to consider annexation plans. Brazil is also at danger from negative public opinion caused by China's Belt and Road Initiative. Chinese lending to nations it knows won't be able to repay them is referred to as "debt trap diplomacy." The key transportation systems in those nations are only granted to China legal ownership rights as payment for some of the debt and in the future, Chinese ships and troops may use these seaports and trains to transport themselves. Brazil may have originally viewed BRICS as a rival to the western financial order, but in today's highly polarised globe, BRICS may be more of a burden than a gain and its relationship with the United States may suffer as a result.

Despite Brazil's membership in BRICS, ties between the US and Brazil are now positive. Brazil joined the US as a non-NATO ally in 2019, and the US and Brazilian militaries often train together. The US directly supports Brazil's anti-drug operations and environmental programs aimed at assisting Brazil in safeguarding the biodiversity of its vast jungles. However, the military connection is what matters most, and in this area, the two countries have a close working partnership that includes collaborative research and development initiatives. The US and Brazil joined forces to develop unified civil governance for space exploration in 2021 after Brazil signed the Artemis agreements, allowing the US to launch space assets from its Alcantara Space Center. The US-Brazil relationship has recently seen some bumps, despite this. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the new president of Brazil, has come under fire for accusing the US and the west for arming Ukraine in order to incite Russia to invade that country. Additionally, he has drawn criticism for his advocacy of peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine at a time when those negotiations would logically favour Russia.

Russia commended the president of Brazil in return, and when you receive Russian appreciation, you truly need to consider your role in history. Lula was received with increasing derision when he urged that the west completely stop arming Ukraine. This would inevitably result in the total collapse of the Ukrainian military. The US's response was to say that he is only repeating Russian and Chinese propaganda. With such words, it is necessary to wonder which side of the war Brazil really supports and how much longer the US and Brazil will be friends.

It is no secret that China has sought to bolster its influence in South America in an effort to complicate the US geopolitical situation. To say that America is taking this lightly would be an understatement. However, if China could sway Brazil away from the US, it would be a significant political victory, particularly if it could secure basing rights for its navy and military inside of Brazil.]

So what would Brazil's strategy be for a third world war?

Possibly, depending on whose side of the fight South America's dominant military force was on. Brazil is strategically significant since it is located beside some of the world's greatest commerce routes. From Brazil's shores, a combined naval and air force could significantly hamper the south Atlantic trade for either side. China, however, could be able to relocate its air and naval resources out of the South China Sea and into the Atlantic from where they might obstruct US trade if it collaborates with Brazil. Chinese H-6 bombers operating out of Brazil may target US oil facilities in the Gulf of Mexico and possibly undertake stand-off strikes against the American mainland, which hasn't happened since the War of 1812.

Right now, America's capacity to keep any foe at a distance is its greatest asset in any fight. A military force whose fundamental infrastructure or even global trade is essentially impenetrable, like the US, might be challenging to overthrow. The US is the boxer with the longest arms in the world. A close Brazilian-Chinese partnership could change all of that and put the US on the defensive for the first time in two centuries. China may be able to sink much of the US Pacific Fleet, but it cannot affect US shipyards building new ships, nor can it project power far enough to cut off US global trade. However, Brazil would be taking a significant risk for very little reward by actively supporting China in the event of a world war. The last thing Brazil wants is to go in conflict with its much larger and more powerful northern neighbour who even if diverted by a Pacific War would still have enough firepower to make Brazil regret its choice.

The Brazilian navy is a sizable force with over 120 warships although it functions best for extending its influence locally. It possesses six diesel submarines but they aren't strong enough to help its present partner, the United States, in any Pacific-based confrontation. Eight big surface combat ships, six of which are frigates and two corvettes are also more equipped for regional operations than for assisting an expeditionary force but it wouldn't be the first time Brazilian ships have travelled far from home ports. As a result of the retirement of its lone aircraft carrier, Brazil is no longer able to launch missions far from home, but it may still contribute significantly to its ally's efforts to stop Chinese trade in the South Atlantic by using its great naval might. Travelling closer to Africa's western coast may be more advantageous given that the Suez Canal is turning into a choke point where Chinese ships may be easily caught after leaving for the Mediterranean routes and here is where Brazil's navy may be useful. Chinese ships would undoubtedly try to evade sanctions by flying under false flags or employing other shady techniques, no doubt learning from Russia's extensive experience in sanction busting. Brazilian ships assigned to the task of sniffing out these sanction busting ships would free up the US Navy for the kinetic battle in the Pacific and Indian oceans. The Brazilian air force is also inadequate for anything more than limited defense operations.

42 American F-5 jets, a light fighter best suited for defense, are now in its fleet. Its 46 AMX attack planes are great at providing close air support over open skies, but they lack the endurance to support a US-led operation against invading Chinese soldiers in Taiwan and would probably be destroyed if they came up against the Chinese air force. A similar defensive than offensive aircraft with a short payload and restricted range, its small fleet of five Swedish Grippens—with 27 more on order—would be useless in a Pacific-region conflict. Although Brazil has a sizable military, soldiers fighting for the US will engage in very little ground combat against China. Simply said, it would be impossible to deploy coalition forces to Taiwan without completely destroying the Chinese navy and air force. At that point, there would be no need for ground forces since American naval and air power would shut off invaders from resupply and pound them relentlessly from above and away.

Brazil would now serve as a regional security guarantor in a third world war and barring a significant shift in the US-Brazil relationship, Brazil would be best utilized for aiding in the interdiction of Chinese ships in the south Atlantic. All of this, however, might drastically alter if Brazil were to entirely join the Chinese side and let Chinese military to be based on its own land, but that would need such a radical shift in the present that it would almost seem like pure fantasy. Though there is little possibility the US would permit a sizable Chinese military presence in its own neighbourhood, Brazil's ground troops may be used if it were to come to pass. The US has a reputation for being generous to its allies but utterly ruthless towards anyone who poses a danger to the security of the country within its own hemisphere.