Land Reform, Poverty Reduction, and Growth: Evidence from India*

Anjana Yadav

Land acquisition cases in Indonesia New Order era could not be released from 1965 tragedy, which was always linking to Indonesia Communist Party (PKI/Partai Komunis Indonesia). One of thousand land conflict cases is that happened to hundreds land tiller in Soge village, Indramayu district in West Java. Legally, they were prioritized as beneficiaries of land reform program in around 1960-1964, during the Old Order era with its populist policy in order to reach Indonesia economic development. However, they immediately lost their land rights and even until now. Various intimidation acts and manipulation such of information were experienced thus they have been in difficult situation to take back their land rights. 1965 was a peak of impossibility for them to plant and manage land they needed, and it has continued until the regimes changed to New Order regime. Various effort has kept doing, either individually or collective, but it is always failed because it is always faced with 'magic word' (mantra) of the new order regime. The mantra is considering being a PKI member or di PKI-kan. This paper explains how a number of parties, including ruling-elites in village level, have been using the 1965 tragedy in order to enrich themselves and to maintain their position in political arena at that time. They have also used the new order regime's 'mantra' to muffle people who were willing to demand their land rights. The data used in this paper generated from data collecting process in 2000 through oral history method. A number of people who still alive and as a victims of land eviction in Soge Village become main sources in a whole explanation of this paper, especially to describe how difficult to separate the two related things, land reform program and PKI label for land tiller. Besides 'PKI' word as the new order regime's magic words for whom demanding their land rights, it becomes an instrument for public knowledge built by the regime that PKI and land reform 1960 is taboo, especially during the New Order Regime.

Land degradation is the loss of soil functions as a source of water and nutrients for the plant, as the root of the plant place, as well as water and nutrient elements added. Due to further degradation process, will become unproductive land and it is called as critical land. Land degradation can be caused by the loss of items nutrient and organic matter from the rooting, inhibit salt or compound toxic to plants in the area of rooting, soil saturation by water (water logging), and erosion. Surface flow that happens to be a trigger for the onset of erosion result in land degradation. Land degradation can give impact on the level of poverty in Indonesia. Degradation resulted the poverty rate increases and the nation loss of revenue of Jayapura district as much as Rp 1.942.866.894.272,- consisting of loss of timber as much as Rp 1.941.855.537.720, and loss potential was Rp 465.211.270,

Indonesia adalah negara yang sebagian besar masyarakatnya bermata pencaharian sebagai petani. Tanah merupakan hal yang terpenting bagi masyarakat tani untuk bercocok tanam. Namun sering terjadi permasalahan terkait penguasaan tanah dimana masyarakat tani sering menggarap lahan yang bukan miliknya sendiri, sehingga terjadi ketimpangan baik penguasaan tanah, pendapatan ekonomi maupun masalah – masalah sosial. Dalam permasalahan tersebut salah satu pemecahannya adalah Landreform. Landreform dianggap mampu memecahkan masalah agraria yang ada. Landreform berasal dari bahasa Inggris yaitu “land” dan “reform”. Land artinya tanah, sedang reform artinya perombakan atau perubahan untuk membangun atau membentuk atau menata kembali struktur pertanian baru. Sedangkan landreform dalam arti sempit adalah penataan ulang struktur penguasaan dan pemilikan tanah, merupakan bagian pokok dalam konsep reform agraria (agraria reform). Landreform meliputi perombakan mengenai pemilikan dan penguasaan tanah serta hubungan - hubungan hukum yang bersangkutan dengan penguasaan tanah. Salah satu tujuan landreform adalah untuk mengakhiri sistem tuan-tanah dan menghapuskan pemilikan dan penguasaan tanah secara besarbesaran dengan tidak terbatas dengan menyelenggarakan batas maksimum dan batas minimum untuk tiap keluarga. Didalam pasal 17 UUPA menyatakan dalam ayat 1 dan 2, “ bahwa dalam waktu yang singkat perlu diatur luas maksimum tanah yang boleh dipunyai dengan sesuatu hak oleh satu keluarga atau badan hukum ”. Selanjutnya ditetapkan dalam ayat 3 “ bahwa tanah – tanah yang merupakan kelebihan dari batas maksimum tersebut akan diambil oleh pemerintah dengan ganti kerugian untuk selanjutnya dibagikan kepada rakyat yang membutuhkan “. Atas dasar pasal 17 UUPA tersebut diterbitkanlah undang – undang no 56 Prp 1960 yang bertujuan untuk memeratakan penguasaan atas tanah, mengadakan penataan penguasaan tanah dan meningkatan pendapatan serta kesejahteraan untuk rakyat khususnya para petani kecil secara adil dan merata, sehingga terbuka kesempatan untuk mengembangkan diri mencapai kemakmuran sebagai bagian dari pembangunan nasional untuk mewujudkan masyarakat yang adil dan makmur bedasarkan Pancasila. Namun, pada kenyataannya banyak tujuan yang berjalan tidak sebagaimana mestinya, masyarakat khususnya petani, tidak merasakan kemakmuran di bumi Indonesia. Masih banyak petani yang menggarap tanah yang bukan miliknya sendiri. Sangat miris melihatnya pada dasarnya bumi Indonesia merupakan Negara agraris yang mempunyai lahan yang luas, subur dan seharusya diperuntukkan, diolah dan digarap oleh para petani Indonesia. Ketimpangan pemilikan dan penguasaan tanah di Indonesia sebagaimana halnya ketimpangan ekonomi/tingkat pendapatan penduduknya adalah sangat tajam dan ironis. Disatu sisi banyak orang kaya yang memiliki tanah secara absentee dan menjadikan sebagai asset atau investasi, tetapi di sisi lain lebih banyak petani banyak petani yang hanya mempunyai sebidang tanah yang tidak cukup menghidupi keluarganya atau bahkan tidak mempunyai satu meter pun tanah digarapnya. Dengan tujuan pemerataan dan untuk mencapai keadilan dalam perolehan pemanfaatan tanah maka program landreform haruslah dimaksimalkan sebaik mungkin.

LAND REFORM, POVERTY REDUCTION AND GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM INDIA BY TIMOTHY BESLEY AND ROBIN BURGESS* London School of Economics Houghton Street London WC2A 2AE This Draft: September 1998 DEDPS No. 13 October 1998 * The Development Economics Discussion Paper Series The Suntory Centre Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines London School of Economics Houghton Street London WC2A 2AE Tel: 0171 955 6698 The authors are grateful to Ahbijit Banerjee, Pranab Bardhan, Clive Bell, Francois Bourguignon, Jean Dreze, Michael Lipton, Rohini Pande, Martin Ravallion and a number of seminar participants for helpful comments. Timo Henckel and Cecilia Testa provided able research assistance. We also thank STICERD for invaluable financial support. LAND REFORM, POVERTY REDUCTION AND GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM INDIA BY TIMOTHY BESLEY AND ROBIN BURGESS London School of Economics Houghton Street London WC2A 2AE This Draft: September 1998 ABSTRACT In recent times there has been a renewed interest in relationships between redistribution, growth and welfare. Land reforms have been central to strategies to improve the asset base of the poor in developing countries thought their effectiveness has been hindered by political constraints on implementation. In this paper we use panel data on the sixteen main Indian states from 1958 to 1992 to consider whether the large volume of land reforms as have been legislated have had an appreciable impact on growth and poverty. The evidence presented suggests that land reforms do appear to be associated with poverty reduction. Keywords: land reform, political economy, poverty, growth, India JEL Classification: D60, H11 O11, Q15, R11 © by Timothy Besley and Robin Burgess. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. Odqg Uhirup/ Sryhuw| Uhgxfwlrq dqg Jurzwk= Hylghqfh iurp Lqgld Wlprwk| Ehvoh| dqg Urelq Exujhvv Orqgrq Vfkrro ri Hfrqrplfv Krxjkwrq Vwuhhw Orqgrq ZF5D 5DH Wklv Gudiw= Vhswhpehu 4<<; Devwudfw Lq uhfhqw wlphv wkhuh kdv ehhq d uhqhzhg lqwhuhvw lq uhodwlrqvklsv eh0 wzhhq uhglvwulexwlrq/ jurzwk dqg zhoiduh1 Odqg uhirupv kdyh ehhq fhqwudo wr vwudwhjlhv wr lpsuryh wkh dvvhw edvh ri wkh srru lq ghyhorslqj frxqwulhv wkrxjk wkhlu hhfwlyhqhvv kdv ehhq klqghuhg e| srolwlfdo frqvwudlqwv rq lp0 sohphqwdwlrq1 Lq wklv sdshu zh xvh sdqho gdwd rq wkh vl{whhq pdlq Lqgldq vwdwhv iurp 4<8; wr 4<<5 wr frqvlghu zkhwkhu wkh odujh yroxph ri odqg uh0 irupv dv kdyh ehhq ohjlvodwhg kdyh kdg dq dssuhfldeoh lpsdfw rq jurzwk dqg sryhuw|1 Wkh hylghqfh suhvhqwhg vxjjhvwv wkdw odqg uhirupv gr dsshdu wr eh dvvrfldwhg zlwk sryhuw| uhgxfwlrq1 Wkh dxwkruv duh judwhixo wr Dkelmlw Edqhumhh/ Sudqde Edugkdq/ Folyh Ehoo/ Iudqfrlv Erxu0 jxljqrq/ Mhdq Guh}h/ Plfkdho Olswrq/ Urklql Sdqgh/ Pduwlq Udydoolrq dqg d qxpehu ri vhplqdu sduwlflsdqwv iru khosixo frpphqwv1 Wlpr Khqfnho dqg Fhflold Whvwd surylghg deoh uhvhdufk dvvlvwdqfh1 Zh dovr wkdqn VWLFHUG iru lqydoxdeoh qdqfldo vxssruw1 41 Lqwurgxfwlrq Ilqglqj hhfwlyh phdqv wr uholhyh sryhuw| lv d ghqlqj plvvlrq iru ghyhorsphqw hfrqrplfv1 Wr wklv hqg/ d zlgh udqjh ri srolf| dowhuqdwlyhv kdyh ehhq lpsoh0 phqwhg1 Krzhyhu/ wkh ehqhwv ri pdq| vxfk hruwv kdyh ehhq txhvwlrqhg1 Vrph dujxh wkdw srolwlfdo frqvwudlqwv rq lpsohphqwdwlrq ghq| wkh srru wkh ehqhwv ri uhglvwulexwlyh hruwv1 Rwkhuv vxjjhvw wkdw ehqhwv wr wkh srru duh xqghuplqhg e| glvlqfhqwlyhv wr jhqhudwh lqfrph1 Zruvh vwloo/ wkhvh glvlqfhqwlyhv fdq d"lfw wkh qrq0srru zkr wu| wr txdoli| iru dvvlvwdqfh1 Wklv lq wxuq ohdgv srolf| dqdo|vwv wr txhvwlrq wkh zlvgrp ri lpsohphqwlqj uhglvwulexwlyh srolflhv dw doo/ irfxvlqj lqvwhdg rq srolflhv wkdw surprwh hfrqrplf jurzwk1 Frpedwwlqj vxfk shvvlplvp uhtxluhv hpslulfdo hylghqfh wkdw vrph uhglvwulexwlyh srolflhv kdyh dfklhyhg wkhlu vwdwhg jrdov1 Wklv sdshu vwxglhv odqg uhirup dv d uhglvwulexwlyh srolf|1 Wkurxjkrxw wkh srvw0frorqldo shulrg/ lpsuryhphqw lq wkh dvvhw edvh ri wkh srru kdv ehhq ylhzhg dv d fhqwudo vwudwhj| wr uholhyh hqghplf sryhuw| +Fkhqhu| hw do1/ 4<:3,1 Lq d srru djuduldq hfrqrp|/ w|slfdo ri wkrvh lq pdq| ohvv ghyhorshg frxqwulhv/ wklv lpsolhv lpsurylqj wkh whupv rq zklfk wkh srru kdyh dffhvv wr odqg1 Vljqlfdqw srolwlfdo fkdqjhv/ vxfk dv ghfrorql}dwlrq/ kdyh vrphwlphv drughg wkh rssruwxqlw| wr xqghuwdnh idu0uhdfklqj odqg uhirupv wkdw wudqvihu surshuw| uljkwv wr wkh srru1 Krzhyhu/ vxfk lqvwdqfhv duh uduh dqg pruh lqfuhphqwdo phdvxuhv duh frpprq1 Wklv lv wkh fdvh lq Lqgld zkhuh odqg uhirupv kdyh ehhq rq wkh srolf| djhqgd vlqfh lqghshqghqfh1 Wkhvh uhirupv kdyh lqyroyhg rqo| olplwhg hruwv dw odqg uhglvwulexwlrq/ prvwo| wkurxjk ohjlvodwhg fhlolqjv rq odqg kroglqj1 Ohjlvodwlrq dlphg dw uhjxodwlqj whqdqflhv/ iru h{dpsoh e| lpsurylqj whqxuldo vhfxulw|/ dqg uhgxflqj wkh srzhu ri devhqwhh odqgorugv dqg lqwhuphgldulhv duh pruh frpprq1 Zkloh wkh odwwhu qhhg qrw fkdqjh wkh glvwulexwlrq ri odqg kroglqjv/ wkh| pd| lpsuryh whqdqwv* fodlpv wr wkh uhwxuqv iurp wkhlu odqg1 Wklv pd| dovr ehqhw wkh odqgohvv e| udlvlqj djulfxowxudo zdjhv1 Lqgld lv dq lpsruwdqw fdvh vwxg| ri odqg uhirup1 Lw lv erwk krph wr d vljqlfdqw iudfwlrq ri wkh srru lq wkh ghyhorslqj zruog dqg lq wkh srvw0Lqghshqghqfh shulrg zdv vxemhfwhg wr wkh odujhvw erg| ri odqg uhirup ohjlvodwlrq hyhu wr kdyh ehhq sdvvhg lq vr vkruw d shulrg lq dq| frxqwu| +Wkruqhu/ 4<:9,1 Wkh h!fdf| ri wklv ohjlvodwlrq kdv/ krzhyhu/ ehhq pxfk ghedwhg1 Wkh frqyhqwlrqdo zlvgrp iroorzlqj wkh lq xhqwldo frpphqwdu| ri Edugkdq +4<:3, lv wkdw/ zkloh odqg uhirup ohjlvodwlrq derxqgv/ wkh uhdo lpsdfw rq wkh frqglwlrqv ri wkh srru lv pxwhg e| xqhqwkxvldvwlf lpsohphqwdwlrq ri sursrvhg fkdqjhv1 Krzhyhu/ eurdg edvhg txdqwlwdwlyh whvwlqj 5 ri wklv qrwlrq grhv qrw dsshdu wr kdyh ehhq dwwhpswhg suhylrxvo|1 Wklv sdshu wdnhv dgydqwdjh ri wkh vwdwh ohyho sdqho gdwd dydlodeoh iru wkh vl{whhq pdlq Lqgldq vwdwhv iurp 4<8; wr 4<<5 wr dvvhvv wklv1 Wkh vwdwh lv wkh qdwxudo xqlw ri dqdo|vlv iru odqg uhirup jlyhq wkdw vwdwh jryhuqphqwv kdyh mxulvglfwlrq ryhu odqg uhirup ohjlvodwlrq1 Wkh uhodwlyho| orqj wlph shulrg fryhuhg e| wkh gdwd dovr doorzv uhvshfwdeoh hruwv wr ghdo zlwk vrph hfrqrphwulf frqfhuqv1 Rxu sulqflsdo qglqj lv wkdw odqg uhirupv gr dsshdu wr kdyh ohdg wr uhgxfwlrqv lq sryhuw| lq Lqgld1 Wklv qglqj lv urexvw wr d qxpehu ri phwkrgv ri hvwlpdwlrq/ dqg wkh lqfoxvlrq2h{foxvlrq ri pdq| glhuhqw frqwurov1 Zh dovr xvh rxu gdwd wr lqyhvwljdwh wkh uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq odqg uhirup dqg jurzwk1 Wkh uhfhqw jurzwk olwhudwxuh kdv ghedwhg zkhwkhu hruwv e| jryhuqphqw wr uhglvwulexwh qhfhvvdulo| uhvxow lq orzhu jurzwk1 Wklv dujxphqw lv irupdol}hg lq Dohvlqd dqg Urguln +4<<7, dqg Shuvvrq dqg Wdehoolql +4<<8, zkr qg hylghqfh ri d qhjdwlyh uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq uhglvwulexwlrq dqg jurzwk lpsolhg e| wkh wkhru| lq d srolwlfdo hfrqrp| frqwh{w1 Wklv dujxphqw fdq/ krzhyhu/ eh txhvwlrqhg rq wkhruhwlfdo jurxqgv lq d zruog ri lqfrpsohwh pdunhwv dv uhglvwulexwlrq fdq dowhu wkh whupv ri djhqf| sureohpv lq fuhglw pdunhwv dqg irvwhu dffxpxodwlrq ghflvlrqv vhh iru h{dpsoh/ Kr dqg O|rq +4<<8, dqg Ehqderx +4<<9,1 Wklv vxjjhvwv wkdw wkhuh fdq hyhq eh d srvlwlyh uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq uhglvwulexwlyh hruwv dqg hfrqrplf jurzwk1 Prvw h{lvwlqj hpslulfdo hylghqfh frphv iurp furvv0frxqwu| gdwd1 Zkloh lqirupdwlyh/ wkhuh duh lqvxuprxqwdeoh sureohpv ri frpsdudelolw| ri gdwd dfurvv frxqwulhv dqg dvvhvvlqj gluhfwlrqv ri fdxvdwlrq1 Wkh idfw wkdw rxu gdwd frph iurp rqh frxqwu| zlwk vlplodu gdwd froohfwlrq vwudwhjlhv lq hdfk vwdwh/ dqg wkh uhodwlyho| orqj wlph shulrg/ doorz xv wr pdnh surjuhvv rq wklv1 Hpslulfdo vwxglhv ri wkh lpsdfw ri odqg uhirup duh uduh vlqfh uholdeoh hvwlpdwlrq uhtxluhv gdwd iurp wkh suh0 dqg srvw0 uhirup shulrgv1 Lq Lqgld/ wkhuh duh qxphurxv fdvh vwxglhv ri odqg uhirup +uhylhzhg ehorz,/ exw ihz dwwhpswv wr orrn dw wkh ryhudoo slfwxuh1 Glvfxvvlrq ri wkh wkhruhwlfdo lpsdfw ri odqg uhirup kdyh ehhq grplqdwhg e| wkh iuhtxhqwo| irxqg lqyhuvh idup vl}h0surgxfwlylw| uhodwlrqvkls/ zkhqfh vpdoo iduphuv duh vxssrvhg wr dfklhyh kljkhu |lhogv +vhh Elqvzdqjhu hw do 4<<8,1 Wklv vxjjhvwv wkdw qglqj phdqv ri hyhqlqj wkh glvwulexwlrq ri odqg kroglqj vkrxog ohdg wr surgxfwlylw| jdlqv lq dgglwlrq wr uhglvwulexwlyh ehqhwv1 Krzhyhu/ odqg uhirupv lq Lqgld duh uduho| ri d irup wkdw frxog gluhfwo| h{sorlw wklv srvvlelolw|1 Pruhryhu/ fduhixo wkhruhwlfdo dqdo|vlv/ dv lq Edqhumhh dqg Jkdwdn +4<<:, vkrzv wkdw wkh wkhruhwlfdo hhfwv rq surgxfwlylw| duh lqkhuhqwo| dpeljxrxv zkhq dvvhvvlqj wkh lpsdfw ri whqdqf| uhirupv wkdw doorz whqdqwv juhdwhu vhfxulw|1 Wkh uhpdlqghu ri wkh sdshu lv rujdql}hg dv iroorzv1 Wkh qh{w vhfwlrq glvfxvvhv 6 edfnjurxqg dqg gdwd lvvxhv1 Vhfwlrq 6 h{dplqhv wkh lpsdfw wkdw odqg uhirupv kdyh kdg rq sryhuw| dqg ghdov zlwk srwhqwldo sureohpv lq lqwhusuhwlqj wkh edvlf uhvxowv1 Vhfwlrq 7 dgguhvvhv lvvxh dv wr zkhwkhu odqg uhirupv fdq kdyh jhqhudo htxloleulxp hhfwv e| h{dplqj wkhlu lpsdfw rq djulfxowxudo zdjhv1 Vhfwlrq 8 wkhq wxuqv wr wkh lvvxh ri krz odqg uhirupv kdyh dhfwhg hfrqrplf jurzwk1 Lq Vhfwlrq 9 zh ghyhors d wkhruhwlfdo iudphzrun zklfk doorzv xv wr lqwhusuhw rxu uhvxowv lq wkh oljkw ri wkh olwhudwxuh rq odqg uhirup1 Ilqdoo|/ vhfwlrq vhyhq frqfoxghv1 51 Edfnjurxqg dqg Gdwd Xqghu wkh 4<7< Lqgldq frqvwlwxwlrq/ vwdwhv zhuh judqwhg wkh srzhuv wr hqdfw +dqg lpsohphqw, odqg uhirupv1 Wklv dxwrqrp| hqvxuhv wkdw wkhuh kdv ehhq vljqlfdqw yduldwlrq dfurvv vwdwhv dqg wlph lq whupv ri wkh qxpehu dqg w|shv ri odqg uhirupv wkdw kdyh ehhq hqdfwhg +vhh Wdeoh 4,1 Zh fodvvli| odqg uhirup dfwv lqwr irxu pdlq fdwhjrulhv dffruglqj wr wkhlu pdlq sxusrvh +vhh Phduqv/ 4<<;,1 Wkh uvw fdwhjru| lv dfwv uhodwhg wr whqdqf| uhirup1 Wkhvh lqfoxgh dwwhpswv wr uhjxodwh whqdqf| frqwudfwv erwk yld uhjlvwudwlrq dqg vwlsxodwlrq ri frqwudfwxdo whupv/ vxfk dv vkduhv lq vkduh whqdqf| frqwudfwv/ dv zhoo dv dwwhpswv wr derolvk whqdqf| dqg wudqvihu rzqhuvkls wr whqdqwv1 Wkh vhfrqg fdwhjru| ri odqg uhirup dfwv duh dwwhpswv wr derolvk lqwhuphgldulhv1 Wkhvh lqwhuphgldulhv zkr zrunhg xqghu ihxgdo orugv +]dpdqgdul,wr froohfw uhqw iru wkh Eulwlvk zhuh uhsxwhg wr doorz d odujhu vkduh ri wkh vxusoxv iurp wkh odqg wr eh h{wudfwhg iurp whqdqwv1 Prvw vwdwhv kdg sdvvhg ohjlvodwlrq wr derolvk lqwhuphgldulhv sulru wr 4<8;1 Krzhyhu/ yh +Jxmdudw/ Nhudod/ Rulvvd/ Udmdvwkdq/ Xwwdu Sudghvk, glg vr gxulqj rxu gdwd shulrg1 Wkh wklug fdwhjru| ri odqg uhirup dfwv frqfhuqhg hruwv wr lpsohphqw fhlolqjv rq odqg kroglqjv/ zlwk d ylhz wr uhglvwulexwlqj vxusoxv odqg wr wkh odqgohvv1 Ilqdoo|/ zh kdyh dfwv zklfk dwwhpswhg wr doorz frqvrolgdwlrq ri glvsdudwh odqg0kroglqjv14 Wkrxjk wkhvh uhirupv dqg lq sduwlfxodu wkh odwwhu zhuh mxvwlhg sduwo| lq whupv ri dfklhylqj h!flhqf| jdlqv lq djulfxowxuh lw lv fohdu iurp wkh dfwv wkhpvhoyhv dqg iurp wkh srolwlfdo pdqlihvwrv vxssruwlqj wkh dfwv wkdw wkh pdlq lpshwxv gulylqj wkh uvw wkuhh uhirupv zdv sryhuw| uhgxfwlrq1 Lw lv wkhuhiruh ri vrph lqwhuhvw/ iurp wkh shuvshfwlyh ri sxeolf srolf|/ wr dvvhvv zkhwkhu wkhvh uhirupv zhuh hhfwlyh lq dfklhylqj wkhlu vwdwhg dlpv1 H{lvwlqj dvvhvvphqwv ri wkh hhfwlyhqhvv ri wkhvh glhuhqw uhirupv duh kljko| pl{hg1 Wkrxjk surprwhg e| wkh fhqwuh lq ydulrxv Ilyh \hdu Sodqv/ wkh idfw wkdw 4 Lq wkhru| dq|zd| wkhvh uhirupv vkrxog eh glvwulexwlrqdoo| qhxwudo1 7 odqg uhirupv zhuh d vwdwh vxemhfw xqghu wkh 4<7< Frqvwlwxwlrq phdqw wkdw hqdfw0 phqw dqg lpsohphqwdwlrq zdv ghshqghqw rq wkh srolwlfdo zloo ri vwdwh jryhuqphqwv +Edqg|rsdgk|d|/ 4<;9> Udgkdnulvkqdq/ 4<<3> Dssx/ 4<<9> Phduqv/ 4<<;,1 Wkh shufhlyhg rssuhvvlyh fkdudfwhu ri wkh ]dpdqgdul +dqg wkhlu lqwhuphgldulhv, dqg wkhlu forvh dooldqfh zlwk wkh Eulwlvk jdoydql}hg eurdg srolwlfdo vxssruw iru wkh der0 olwlrq lqwhuphgldulhv dqg ohg wr zlghvsuhdg lpsohphqwdwlrq ri wkhvh uhirupv prvw ri zklfk zhuh frpsohwh e| wkh hduo| 4<93v +Dssx/ 4<<9> Phduqv/ 4<<;,15 Fhqwuh0 vwdwh doljqphqw rq wkh lvvxh ri whqdqf| uhirupv zdv pxfk ohvv surqrxqfhg1 6 Zlwk pdq| vwdwh ohjlvodwxuhv frqwuroohg e| wkh odqgorug fodvv/ uhirupv zklfk kduphg wklv fodvv whqghg wr eh eorfnhg wkrxjk zkhuh whqdqwv kdg vxevwdqwldo srolwlfdo uhsuhvhqwdwlrq qrwdeoh vxffhvvhv lq lpsohphqwdwlrq zhuh uhfrughg1 Ghvslwh wkh frqvlghudeoh sxeolflw| dwwdfkhg wr wkhlu hqdfwphqw/ srolwlfdo idloxuh wr lpsohphqw zdv prvw frpsohwh lq wkh fdvh ri odqg fhlolqj ohjlvodwlrq1 Khuh dpelydohqfh lq wkh irupxodwlrq ri srolf| dqg qxphurxv orrskrohv doorzhg wkh exon ri odqgrzqhuv wr dyrlg h{sursuldwlrq e| glvwulexwlqj vxusoxv odqg wr uhodwlrqv/ iulhqgv dqg ghshq0 ghqwv +Dssx/ 4<<9> Phduqv/ 4<<;,1 Dv d uhvxow ri wkhvh sureohpv/ lpsohphqwdwlrq ri erwk whqdqf| uhirup dqg odqg fhlolqj ohjlvodwlrq whqghg wr odj zhoo ehklqg wkh wdujhwv vhw lq wkh Ilyh \hdu Sodqv +Edqg|rsdgk|d|/ 4<;9> Udgkdnulvkqdq/ 4<<3,7 1 Odqg frqvrolgdwlrq ohjlvodwlrq zdv hqdfwhg ohvv wkdq wkh rwkhu uhirupv dqg/ rzlqj sduwo| wr wkh vsduvhqhvv ri odqg uhfrugv/ lpsohphqwdwlrq kdv ehhq frqvlghuhg wr eh erwk vsrudglf dqg sdwfk| rqo| dhfwlqj d ihz vwdwhv lq dq| vljqlfdqw zd| + Udgkdnulvkqdq/ 4<<3> Dssx/ 4<<9> Phduqv/ 4<<;,1 Yloodjh ohyho vwxglhv dovr rhu d yhu| pl{hg dvvhvvphqw ri wkh sryhuw| lpsdfw ri glhuhqw odqg uhirupv +vhh Md|dudpdq dqg Odqmrxz/ 4<<:,1 Vlplodu uhirupv vhhphg wr kdyh surgxfhg glhuhqw hhfwv lq glhuhqw duhdv ohdylqj ryhudoo lp0 sdfw lqghwhuplqdwh1 Wkhuh lv vrph frqvhqvxv wkdw wkh derolwlrq ri lqwhuphgldulhv dfklhyhg d olplwhg dqg yduldeoh vxffhvv erwk lq uhglvwulexwlqj odqg wrzdugv wkh srru dqg lqfuhdvlqj wkh vhfxulw| ri vpdookroghuv +vhh h1j1 Zdgoh| dqg Ghuu/ 4<<3,1 5 Wkhuh zdv qrqhwkhohvv vrph pdmru ghvljq dzv prvw qrwdeo| wkh idloxuh wr olplw wkh vl}h ri krph idupv ri ]dplqgduv ru wr surwhfw vkruw0whup whqdqwv1 6 Dv Zduulqhu +4<9<, frpphqwhg Frqjuhvv surylghg erwk wkh prwlydwlrq iru odqg uhirup dqg wkh rssrvlwlrq wr lw/ dv d vrfldolvw khdg zlwk d frqvhuydwlyh erg|1 7 Wkh Iliwk Sodq jlyhv d iudqn dvvhvvphqw ri wkh vlwxdwlrq zklfk lv gluhfwo| lq olqh zlwk wkdw ri Edugkdq +4<:3,= D eurdg dvvhvvhphqw ri wkh surjudpph ri odqg uhirup dgrswhg vlqfh Lqghshqghqfh lv wkdw wkh odzv iru wkh derolwlrq ri lqwhuphgldu| whqxuhv kdyh ehhq lpsohphqwhg idluo| h!flhqwo| zklovw lq wkh hogv ri whqdqf| uhirupv dqg flholqjv rq kroglqjv/ ohjlvodwlrq kdv idoohq vkruw ri wkh ghvluhg remhfwlyhv/ dqg lpsohphqwdwlrq ri wkh hqdfwhg odzv kdv eh lqdghtxdwh +Iliwk Ilyh \hdu Sodq/ 4<:70:</ 5= 76,1 8 Iru whqdqf| uhirup/ krzhyhu/ zkhuhdv vxffhvvhv kdyh ehhq uhfrughg/ lq sduwlfxodu/ zkhuh whqdqwv duh zhoo rujdql}hg wkhuh kdv dovr ehhq d udqjh ri grfxphqwhg fdvhv ri lpplqhqw ohjlvodwlrq surpswlqj odqgorugv wr hqjdjh lq pdvv hylfwlrqv ri whqdqwv dqg ri wkh gh mxuh edqqlqj ri odqgorug0whqdqw uhodwlrqvklsv sxvklqj whqdqf| xqghu0 jurxqg dqg wkhuhiruh/ sdudgr{lfdoo|/ uhgxflqj whqxuldo vhfxulw| +vhh h1j1 Jrxjk/ 4<;:,1 Odqg fhlolqj ohjlvodwlrq/ lq d ydulhw| yloodjh vwxglhv/ lv dovr shufhlyhg wr kdyh kdg qhxwudo ru qhjdwlyh hhfwv rq sryhuw| e| lqgxflqj odqgrzqhuv iurp mrlqw idplolhv wr hylfw wkhlu whqdqwv dqg wr vhsdudwh wkhlu kroglqjv lqwr vpdoohu sursul0 hwdu| xqlwv dprqj idplo| phpehuv dv d phdqv ri dyrlglqj h{sursuldwlrq +vhh h1j1 Fkdwwrsdgk|d|/ 4<<7,1 Odqg frqvrolgdwlrq lv dovr rq wkh zkroh mxgjhg qrw wr kdyh ehhq surjuhvvlyh lq lwv uhglvwulexwlyh lpsdfw jlyhq wkdw ulfkhu iduphuv whqg wr xvh wkhlu srzhu wr rewdlq lpsuryhg kroglqjv +vhh h1j1 Guh}h/ Odqmrxz dqg Vkdupd/ 4<<:,1 Wdeoh 5 jlyhv d frpsohwh slfwxuh ri odqg uhirup lq rxu gdwd shulrg1 Lw dovr jlyhv rxu fodvvlfdwlrq ri hdfk uhirup1 Zh pdnh xvh ri wkhvh gdwd lq rxu txdqwlwdwlyh dqdo|vlv e| uhfruglqj wkh |hdu dqg vwdwh lq zklfk d sduwlfxodu uhirup lv sdvvhg1 Wkh yduldeoh wkxv fdswxuhv wkh lpsdfw ri ohjlvodwhg dv rssrvhg wr lpsohphqwhg odqg uhirupv1 Vlqfh odqg uhirupv duh olnho| wr kdyh hhfwv ryhu wlph dqg qrw qhfhvvdulo| lq wkhlu |hdu ri sdvvdjh/ zh phdvxuh wkh h{whqw ri uhirup vlqfh wkh ehjlqqlqj ri rxu gdwd shulrg e| d fxpxodwlyh yduldeoh wkdw djjuhjdwhv wkh qxpehu ri ohjlvodwlyh uhirupv wr gdwh1 Zkloh fuxgh/ zh eholhyh wkdw lw surylghv d vhqvleoh uvw sdvv dw dqdo|}lqj wkh txdqwlwdwlyh hhfwv ri odqg uhirup1 Wkh phdq ri wkdw yduldeoh djjuhjdwhg dfurvv wkh irxu fdwhjrulhv ri odqg uhirup lv jlyhq lq Wdeoh 4 froxpq 81 Wklv vkrzv wkdw wkhuh lv d frqvlghudeoh yduldwlrq lq ryhudoo odqg uhirup dfwlylw| dfurvv vwdwhv zlwk vwdwhv vxfk dv Xwwdu Sudghvk/ Nhudod dqg Wdplo Qdgx kdylqj d orw ri dfwlylw| zkloh Sxqmde dqg Udmdvwkdq kdyh yhu| olwwoh1 Rxu sryhuw| rxwfrph gdwd frph iurp d qhz dqg frqvlvwhqw vhw ri jxuhv iru wkh uxudo dqg xuedq duhdv ri Lqgld*v vl{whhq pdmru vwdwhv vsdqqlqj wkh shulrg 4<8;0 4<<5 frpslohg e| R}ohu/ Gdww dqg Udydoolrq +4<<9,18 Wkh phdvxuhv duh edvhg rq frqvxpswlrq glvwulexwlrqv iurp 54 urxqgv ri wkh Qdwlrqdo Vdpsoh Vxuyh| +QVV, vsdqqlqj wklv shulrg1 Wkh sryhuw| olqh lv edvhg rq d qxwulwlrqdo qrup ri 5733 fdorulhv shu gd| dqg lv ghqhg dv wkh ohyho ri dyhudjh shu fdslwd wrwdo h{shqglwxuh dw zklfk wklv qrup lv w|slfdoo| dwwdlqhg1 Wzr sryhuw| phdvxuhv duh frqvlghuhg wkh khdg frxqw lqgh{ EM dqg wkh sryhuw| jds E C phdvxuh1 Jlyhq wkdw QVV vxuyh|v duh qrw dqqxdo/ zhljkwhg lqwhusrodwlrq kdv ehhq xvhg wr rewdlq ydoxhv 8 Zh duh judwhixo wr Pduwlq Udydoolrq iru surylglqj xv zlwk wklv gdwd1 9 ehwzhhq vxuyh|v19 Rxu vwxg| vkrxog eh vhhq lq wkh frqwh{w ri d vljqlfdqw ryhudoo uhgxfwlrq lq sryhuw| wkurxjkrxw rxu gdwd shulrg wkh doo0Lqgld uxudo khdg frxqw phdvxuh kdv idoohq iurp durxqg 88( wr 73( dqg wkh uxudo sryhuw| jds iurp 4<( wr durxqg 43(1 Wkdw vdlg/ wkhuh lv frqvlghudeoh furvv0vhfwlrqdo yduldwlrq lq shuirupdqfh dfurvv vwdwhv1: Djulfxowxudo zdjh gdwd zhuh dovr froohfwhg wr hqdeoh xv wr h{dplqh zkhwkhu odqg uhirupv kdg jhqhudo htxloleulxp dhfwv dqg zhuh wkxv fdsdeoh uhdfklqj jurxsv ri wkh srru +h1j1 odqgohvv, zkr glg qrw gluhfwo| ehqhw iurp wkh uhirupv1 Uhdo ydoxhv ri shu fdslwd djulfxowxudo/ qrq0djulfxowxudo dqg frpelqhg vwdwh grphvwlf surgxfw zhuh xvhg wr h{dplqh wkh ghwhuplqdqwv ri jurzwk1 Djulfxowxudo vwdwh grphvwlf surgxfw zdv gh dwhg xvlqj wkh Frqvxphu Sulfh Lqgh{ iru Djulfxo0 wxudo Oderuhuv zkloh wkh Frqvxphu Sulfh Lqgh{ iru Lqgxvwuldo Zrunhuv zdv xvhg wr gh dwh wkh qrq0djulfxowxudo vwdwh grphvwlf surgxfw1 Zh dovr frqvwuxfwhg d yduldeoh wr phdvxuh djulfxowxudo |lhogv1 Wklv zdv ghqhg dv uhdo djulfxowxudo vwdwh grphvwlf surgxfw glylghg e| wkh qhw vrzq duhd1 Wklv fuxgho| fdswxuhv whfkqrorj0 lfdo fkdqjhv lq djulfxowxuh1 Sxeolf qdqfh gdwd dw wkh vwdwh ohyho zhuh dovr froohfwhg fklh | dv d phdqv wr frqwuro iru rwkhu jryhuqphqw lqwhuyhqwlrqv ehvlghv odqg uhirup1 Rq wkh h{0 shqglwxuh vlgh/ wkh pdlq fodvvlfdwlrq dydlodeoh iru rxu gdwd shulrg lv lqwr ghyho0 rsphqw dqg qrq0ghyhorsphqw h{shqglwxuh1 Zkloh ghyhorsphqw h{shqglwxuh grhv lqfoxgh h{shqglwxuh rq hfrqrplf dqg vrfldo vhuylfhv/ wkhuh lv qr sduwlfxodu frq0 qhfwlrq ehwzhhq wklv fdwhjru| dqg jryhuqphqw*v hruwv wr ghyhors wkh srsxodwlrq ru lqiudvwuxfwxuh lq wkhlu vwdwhv1; Ghyhorsphqw h{shqglwxuhv duh wkhuhiruh ixuwkhu glvdjjuhjdwhg lqwr khdowk dqg hgxfdwlrq h{shqglwxuhv zklfk zh pljkw h{shfw wr kdyh dssuhfldeoh lpsdfwv rq sryhuw|1< Zh sxw wkhvh lq uhdo whupv dqg phdvxuh wkhp lq shu fdslwd whupv1 Zh dovr froohfwhg wrwdo vwdwh wd{hv dv d vkduh ri vwdwh JGS dv d fuxgh phdvxuh ri wkh vl}h ri vwdwh jryhuqphqwv dqg vwdwh uhglvwulexwlyh 9 Ehorz/ zh fkhfn wkdw rxu uhvxowv duh urexvw wr lqfoxglqj rqo| wkrvh |hduv zkhuh wkhuh zdv dq QVV vxuyh| urxqg1 : Vhh Gdww dqg Udydoolrq +4<<;, iru ixuwkhu glvfxvvlrq1 ; Hfrqrplf vhuylfhv lqfoxgh djulfxowxuh dqg doolhg dfwlylwlhv/ uxudo ghyhorsphqw/ vshfldo duhd surjudpv/ luuljdwlrq dqg rrg frqwuro/ hqhuj|/ lqgxvwu| dqg plqhudov/ wudqvsruw dqg frppx0 qlfdwlrqv/ vflhqfh/ whfkqrorj| dqg hqylurqphqw1 Vrfldo vhuylfhv lqfoxgh hgxfdwlrq/ phglfdo dqg sxeolf khdowk/ idplo| zhoiduh/ zdwhu vxsso| dqg vdqlwdwlrq/ krxvlqj/ xuedq ghyhorsphqw/ oderxu dqg oderxu zhoiduh/ vrfldo vhfxulw| dqg zhoiduh/ qxwulwlrq dqg uholhi rq dffrxqw ri qdwxudo fdod0 pdwlhv1 < D udqjh ri rwkhu lqwhuyhqwlrqv lq rwkhu duhqdv zhuh dovr frqvlghuhg1 : wd{hv shu fdslwd43 wr fdswxuh wkh hruw ri vwdwh jryhuqphqwv wr uhglvwulexwh iurp ulfk wr srru1 Srsxodwlrq hvwlpdwhv iurp wkh yh fhqvxvhv iru 4<84/ 4<94/ 4<:4/ 4<;4 dqg 4<<4 zhuh xvhg dv dgglwlrqdo frqwurov1 Ehwzhhq dq| wzr fhqvxvhv wkhvh zhuh dvvxphg wr jurz dw d frqvwdqw +frpsrxqg, udwh ri jurzwk/ ghulyhg iurp wkh uhvshfwlyh srsxodwlrq wrwdov1 61 Odqg Uhirup dqg Sryhuw| Uhgxfwlrq 6141 Edvlf Uhvxowv Wkh hpslulfdo dssurdfk lv wr uxq sdqho gdwd uhjuhvvlrqv ri wkh irup= %r| ' kr n q | n +r| n ,r|3e n 0r| +614, zkhuh %r| lv vrph phdvxuh ri sryhuw| lq vwdwh r dw wlph |/ kr lv d vwdwh {hg hhfw/ q | lv d |hdu gxpp| yduldeoh/ +r| lv d yhfwru ri yduldeohv wkdw zh wuhdw dv h{rjhqrxv +ghwdlohg ehorz,/ ,r|3e lv wkh vwrfn ri sdvw odqg uhirupv irxu shulrgv suhylrxvo| dqg 0r| lv dq huuru whup zklfk zh prgho dv DU+4, surfhvv zkhuh wkh ghjuhh ri dxwr0fruuhodwlrq lv vwdwh0vshflf/ l1h1/ 0r| ' 4r 0r|3 n r| 1 Hvwlpdwlrq yld jhqhudol}hg ohdvw vtxduhv zloo dovr doorz iru d khwhurvnhgdvwlflw| lq huuru vwuxfwxuh zlwk hdfk vwdwh kdylqj lwv rzq huuru yduldqfh1 Htxdwlrq +614, lv d uhgxfhg irup prgho ri wkh lpsdfw ri odqg uhirup1 Wkxv dq| hhfw ri odqg uhirup rq sryhuw| lv slfnhg xs e| wkdw yduldeoh dorqj zlwk rwkhu hhfwv wkdw fkdqjh wkh fodlpv wkdw whqdqwv kdyh wr odqg1 Wkh odqg uhirup yduldeoh zloo dovr slfn xs dq| jhqhudo htxloleulxp hhfwv ri odqg uhirup wkurxjk fkdqjhv lq zdjhv dqg sulfhv1 Ehorz/ zh glvfxvv zkdw nlqg ri wkhruhwlfdo prgho lv frqvlvwhqw zlwk rxu hpslulfdo qglqjv1 Wkh dssurdfk lv dovr uhgxfhg irup ehfdxvh odqg uhirup ohjlvodwlrq lv xvhg dv uhjuhvvru1 Zh duh xqdeoh wr phdvxuh zkhwkhu odqg uhirupv duh dfwxdoo| lpsoh0 phqwhg1 Zh fdqqrw glvwlqjxlvk/ wkhuhiruh/ ehwzhhq lqhhfwlyh dqg xqlpsohphqwhg odqg uhirupv1 Hyhq/ wkrxjk zh kdyh qr phdvxuh ri wklv/ wkhuh lv dqhfgrwdo hyl0 ghqfh wkdw vrph odqg uhirupv zhuh qrw ixoo| lpsohphqwhg1 Khqfh/ wkh frh!flhqw rq odqg uhirup lq +614, lv olnho| wr surylgh d orzhu erxqg rq wkh wuxh hhfw ri dq lpsohphqwhg odqg uhirup1 Zh kdyh odjjhg wkh odqg uhirup yduldeoh irxu shulrgv iru wzr pdlq uhdvrqv1 Iluvw/ lw vhhpv uhdvrqdeoh wr vxssrvh wkdw hyhq hhfwlyh ohjlvodwlrq zloo wdnh wlph wr eh lpsohphqwhg dqg wr kdyh dq lpsdfw1 Vhfrqg/ lw 43 Wkhvh lqfoxgh odqg wd{/ djulfxowxudo lqfrph wd{ dqg surshuw| wd{ doo ri zklfk duh xqghu wkh frqwuro ri vwdwh jryhuqphqwv1 ; pd| khos wr dood| frqfhuqv wkdw vkrfnv wr sryhuw| zloo eh fruuhodwhg zlwk odqg uhirup hruwv/ dq lvvxh wr zklfk zh uhwxuq ehorz1 Il{hg hhfwv dw wkh vwdwh ohyho frqwuro iru xvxdo duud| ri furvv vwdwh glhuhqfhv lq klvwru| dqg hfrqrplf vwuxfwxuh wkdw kdyh ehhq frqvwdqw ryhu rxu vdpsoh shulrg/ zkloh wkh |hdu hhfwv fryhu iru pdfur0vkrfnv dqg srolflhv hqdfwhg e| wkh fhqwudo jryhuqphqw wkdw dhfw sryhuw| dqg jurzwk1 Wdeoh 6 jlyhv wkh edvlf slfwxuh iurp rxu gdwd1 Lq froxpq +4, zh frqwuro iru rwkhu idfwruv dhfwlqj sryhuw| rqo| e| xvlqj vwdwh dqg |hdu hhfwv1 Odqg uhirup lv uhsuhvhqwhg rqo| e| wkh fxpxodwlyh odqg uhirup yduldeoh zkhuh doo w|shv ri odqg uhirupv duh djjuhjdwhg1 Wkh qhjdwlyh dqg vljqlfdqw dvvrfldwlrq ehwzhhq odqg uhirup dqg wkh uxudo sryhuw| jds phdvxuh lv fohdu iurp wklv1 Froxpq +5, frqupv wkdw wklv uhvxow lv qrw vhqvlwlyh wr xvlqj wkh lqwhusrodwhg |hduv zkhq wkhuh zhuh qr QVV urxqgv1 Lq froxpq +6, odqg uhirupv duh glvdjjuhjdwhg lqwr wkhlu frpsrqhqw w|shv/ dovr odjjhg irxu shulrgv1 Wklv vxjjhvwv wkdw whqdqf| uhirupv dqg wkh derolwlrq ri lqwhuphgldulhv duh gulylqj wkh djjuhjdwh hhfwv/ zkloh odqg fhlolqj ohjlvodwlrq dqg frqvrolgdwlrq ri odqgkroglqjv kdyh d qhjoljleoh lpsdfw rq uxudo sryhuw|1 Ehorz/ zh zloo vxjjhvw d wkhruhwlfdo lqwhusuhwdwlrq ri wkh uhvxowv wkdw lv frqvlvwhqw zlwk wklv qglqj1 Wkh idfw wkdw odqg fhlolqj ohjlvodwlrq lv xqlpsruwdqw frqupv dqhfgrwdo dffrxqwv ri wkh idloxuh wr lpsohphqw wkhvh uhirup phdvxuhv lq dq| vhulrxv zd| +Edugkdq/ 4<:3> Dssx/ 4<<9> Phduqv/ 4<<;,1 Froxpq +7, fkhfnv wkh vhqvlwlylw| ri wkh qglqjv wr xvlqj dq dowhuqdwlyh phdvxuh ri sryhuw| wkh khdg frxqw udwlr1 D vlplodu qhjdwlyh lpsdfw ri whqdqf| uhirup dqg wkh derolwlrq ri lqwhuphgldulhv rq sryhuw| lv irxqg khuh144 Li odqg uhirup lv uhdoo| uhvsrqvleoh iru wkhvh uhvxowv +udwkhu wkdq vrph rplwwhg yduldeoh wkdw lv fruuhodwhg zlwk odqg uhirup,/ wkhq zh zrxog qrw h{shfw wr vhh vxfk hhfwv rq xuedq sryhuw|1 Wkhuh lv qr jrrg uhdvrq wr wklqn surgxfwlrq dqg glvwulexwlrq ghflvlrqv lq wkh xuedq vhfwru zrxog eh dhfwhg +dsduw iurp vrph frpsoh{ jhqhudo htxloleulxp uhdvrqv,1 Wklv lv frquphg lq froxpq +8, ri Wdeoh 6 zklfk qgv qr vljqlfdqw qhjdwlyh dvvrfldwlrq ehwzhhq odqg uhirup dqg xuedq sryhuw| dv phdvxuhg e| wkh vdph QVV gdwd1 Wklv dggv fuhghqfh wr wkh lghd wkdw rxu odqg uhirup yduldeoh lv slfnlqj xs vrphwklqj shfxoldu wr wkh uxudo vhfwru1 Froxpqv +9, wr +;, wulhv d glhuhqw dssurdfk1 Xvlqj rxu qglqj lq froxpq +8, wkdw xuedq sryhuw| grhv qrw uhvsrqg wr odqg uhirup/ zh xvh wkh glhuhqfh ehwzhhq uxudo dqg xuedq sryhuw| dv d uhjuhvvru1 Wklv khosv wr frqwuro iru dq| rplwwhg yduldeohv wkdw kdyh frpprq hhfwv rq sryhuw| lq erwk sodfhv1 Lq froxpq 44 Xvlqj khdgfrxqw lq sodfh ri wkh sryhuw| jds grhv qrw vljqlfdqwo| hhfw dq| ri rxu uhvxowv rq odqg uhirup dqg sryhuw|1 < +9, zh frqup wkdw djjuhjdwh fxpxodwlyh odqg uhirupv odjjhg irxu shulrgv kdyh sod|hg d vljqlfdqw uroh lq uhgxflqj wkh jds ehwzhhq wkh uxudo sryhuw| jds dqg wkh xuedq sryhuw| jds1 Uhvxowv eurnhq rxw e| w|sh ri odqg uhirup duh frqvlvwhqw zlwk wkrvh iru uxudo sryhuw|= whqdqf| uhirupv dqg wkh derolwlrq ri lqwhuphgldulhv kdyh kdg d vljqlfdqw lpsdfw lq forvlqj uxudo0xuedq sryhuw| jds zklovw wkh lpsdfw ri wkh rwkhu wkh wzr w|shv ri odqg uhirup duh lqvljqlfdqw +froxpq :,1 Xvlqj wkh jds ehwzhhq uxudo dqg xuedq khdg frxqwv grhv qrw dhfw wkh uhvxowv lq dq| vljqlfdqw zd| +froxpq ;,1 Wdnhq wrjhwkhu wkhvh uhvxowv ghprqvwudwh d frqvlvwhqw slfwxuh1 Odqg uhirup lq jhqhudo dsshduv wr eh dvvrfldwhg zlwk uhgxfwlrqv lq uxudo sryhuw|/ zlwk wkhvh hhfwv prvw vwurqjo| dvvrfldwhg zlwk odqg uhirupv wkdw vhhn wr derolvk lqwhuphgldulhv dqg uhirup wkh frqglwlrqv ri whqdqflhv1 6151 Urexvwqhvv Zkloh wkhvh uhvxowv duh fohdq/ wkh| ohdyh wzr vljqlfdqw frqfhuqv xqphw1 Iluvw/ wkh| pdnh qr hruw wr doorz iru rwkhu srolflhv wr dhfw sryhuw|1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ zh pljkw eh frqfhuqhg wkdw odqg uhirup lv vlpso| sur{|lqj iru rwkhu srolflhv wkdw duh fruuhodwhg zlwk sryhuw| uhgxfwlrq1 Vhfrqg/ odqg uhirup frxog eh hqgrjhqrxv dqg uhvsrqglqj wr wkh vdph irufhv wkdw gulyh sryhuw|1 Zh qrz dgguhvv erwk ri wkhvh frqfhuqv1 615141 Rwkhu Srolflhv Wdeoh 7 uhsruwv uhvxowv wkdw lqfoxgh dq duud| ri dgglwlrqdo frqwurov1 Doo uhjuhvvlrqv qrz lqfoxgh wkh srsxodwlrq jurzwk udwh dqg djulfxowxudo |lhog odjjhg irxu shulrgv1 Wkh odwwhu pd| sur{| iru rwkhu srolflhv wkdw frxog kdyh hqkdqfhg djulfxowxudo surgxfwlylw| dqg duh fruuhodwhg zlwk odqg uhirup1 Lw pd| dovr slfn xs h{rjhqrxv whfkqrorjlfdo fkdqjh1 Rxu srolf| phdvxuhv duh lq wzr fdwhjrulhv= uh hfwlqj wkh h{shqglwxuh dqg wd{ srolflhv ri vwdwh jryhuqphqwv1 Rxu h{shqglwxuh yduldeohv duh khdowk h{shqglwxuhv shu fdslwd/ hgxfdwlrq h{shqglwxuhv shu fdslwd dqg rwkhu h{shqglwxuhv shu fdslwd145 Wkh iruphu wzr pljkw eh wkrxjkw wr eh lpsruwdqw ghwhuplqdqwv ri sryhuw| uhgxfwlrq hruwv146 Rq wkh wd{ vlgh/ zh kdyh wzr udwkhu fuxgh phdvxuhv zklfk jlyh d slfwxuh ri wkh jhqhudo srolf| vwdqfh ri wkh jryhuqphqw lq r!fh1 Vwdwh wd{hv h{suhvvhg dv d vkduh ri vwdwh grphvwlf surgxfw fuxgho| vhuyh 45 Wkdw lv wrwdo h{shqglwxuh h{foxglqj khdowk dqg hgxfdwlrq1 Lq hduolhu uhjuhvvlrqv zh lqfoxghg d pxfk odujhu duud| ri frqwurov iru jryhuqphqw h{shqglwxuh lqfoxglqj wkrvh rq irrg vhfxulw|/ idplqh/ uxudo lqiudvwuxfwxuh dqg rwkhu vrfldo vhuylfhv1 46 43 wr phdvxuh wkh vl}h ri wkh vwdwh jryhuqphqw1 Zh fdq dovr phdvxuh krz pxfk wkh jryhuqphqw lv lqwhqw rq ghvljqlqj d wd{ v|vwhp wkdw lv jhduhg wrzdugv wd{lqj wkh ehwwhu r1 Zh fuhdwh d phdvxuh ri wkh surjuhvvlyhqhvv ri wkh wd{ v|vwhp xqghu vwdwh frqwuro1 Wklv lv wkh vxp ri odqg wd{hv/ djulfxowxudo lqfrph wd{hv dqg surshuw| wd{hv h{suhvvhg shu fdslwd147 Doo srolf| yduldeohv duh odjjhg irxu shulrgv wr jlyh wkh vdph wlplqj vwuxfwxuh dv wkh odqg uhirup yduldeohv dqg wr plqlpl}h frqfhuqv derxw wkh srvvleoh hqgrjhqhlw| ri wkhvh srolf| yduldeohv1 Lq froxpqv +4,0+9, ri Wdeoh 7 zh uhsolfdwh wkh uhjuhvvlrqv ri odqg uhirup rq sryhuw| lqfoxglqj wkhvh rwkhu srolflhv1 Luuhvshfwlyh ri vshflfdwlrq vwdwh uhglv0 wulexwlyh wd{hv/ vwdwh wd{ vkduh/ dqg |lhog h{huw vljqlfdqw qhjdwlyh lpsdfwv rq uxudo sryhuw| zkhuhdv hgxfdwlrq/ khdowk dqg uhvlgxdo h{shqglwxuh shu fdslwd dqg srsxodwlrq jurzwk duh jhqhudoo| lqvljqlfdqw dw frqyhqwlrqdo ohyhov148 Lq froxpq +4, zh lqfoxgh wkh ixoo vhw ri srolf| frqwuro yduldeohv lq wkh edvlf uhjuhvvlrq ri fxpxodwlyh odqg uhirup rq wkh uxudo sryhuw| jds phdvxuh1 Ghvslwh frqwuroolqj iru wkhvh pdq| glphqvlrqv ri vwdwh dfwlylw|/ fxpxodwlyh odqg uhirup frqwlqxhv wr h{huw d qhjdwlyh dqg vljqlfdqw lpsdfw rq uxudo sryhuw|149 Lq froxpq +5, zh uxq wkh vdph uhjuhvvlrq zkloh glvdjjuhjdwlqj wkh odqg uhirup yduldeoh1 Zh frqwlqxh wr qg wkdw whqdqf| uhirupv dqg wkh derolwlrq ri lqwhuphgldulhv h{huw d qhjdwlyh dqg vljqlfdqw lpsdfw rq wkh uxudo sryhuw| jds phdvxuh zkhuhdv odqg fhlolqj dqg odqg frqvrolgdwlrq ohjlvodwlrq h{huw qr vljqlfdqw lq xhqfh1 Uhsodflqj wkh sryhuw| jds phdvxuh zlwk wkh khdg frxqw phdvxuh dv lv grqh lq froxpq +6, surgxfhv d vlplodu vhw ri uhvxowv1 Zkhq zh h{dplqh wkh xuedq sryhuw| uhjuhvvlrq +froxpq 7, zh qg wkdw/ lq frpprq zlwk wkh uxudo sryhuw| uhjuhvvlrqv/ khdowk dqg hgxfdwlrq h{shqglwxuh kdyh qr vljqlfdqw lpsdfw dqg wd{ vkduh dqg |lhog kdyh vljqlfdqw lpsdfwv1 Wkh odwwhu vxjjhvwv wkdw wkhuh pljkw eh vrph olqn ehwzhhq uxudo whfkqr0 orjlfdo lpsuryhphqw dqg xuedq sryhuw| zklfk lv zruwk| ri ixuwkhu lqyhvwljdwlrq14: Vwdwh uhglvwulexwlyh wd{hv duh lqvljqlfdqw lq wklv uhjuhvvlrq vxjjhvwlqj wkdw wkhlu 47 Djdlq/ pxfk qhu glvdjjuhjdwlrqv ri wd{hv zhuh lqfoxghg lq hduolhu uhjuhvvlrqv1 Wkh h{shqglwxuh uhvxowv duh lqwhuhvwlqj jlyhq wkh sulrulw| dwwdfkhg/ lq fxuuhqw ghedwhv/ wr h{sdqvlrq ri h{shqglwxuhv rq hgxfdwlrq dqg khdowk dv d nh| phdqv ri uhgxflqj sryhuw| +vhh Guh}h dqg Vhq/ 4<<8,1 Krzhyhu/ lw lv srvvleoh wkdw zh zrxog qhhghu qhu phdvxuhv ri wkh zd|v lq zklfk sduwlfxodu surjudpv duh sulrulwl}hg wr pdnh surjuhvv rq wklv1 49 Zh h{shulphqwhg zlwk uhjuhvvlrqv lqfoxglqj d odujhu vhw ri sxeolf qdqfh yduldeohv shuwdlqlqj wr vshflf duhdv uhohydqw wr wkh ghwhuplqdwlrq ri sryhuw|1 Lq doo fdvhv wkh qhjdwlyh dqg vljqlfdqw lpsdfw ri odqg uhirup rq uxudo sryhuw| uhpdlqhg lqwdfw1 4: Zh dovr qg wkdw |lhog dqg qrq0djulfxowxudo lqfrph shu fdslwd duh srvlwlyho| uhodwhg1 Wklv lv uhplqlvfhqw ri wkh olwhudwxuh wkdw kdv vxjjhvwhg wkdw djulfxowxudo jurzwk lv d vwlpxoxv wr qrq0djulfxowxudo jurzwk1 48 44 lpsdfw lv uhvwulfwhg wr wkh uxudo vhfwru1 Lqfoxvlrq ri wkhvh h{wud yduldeohv kdv qr hhfw rq wkh lqvljqlfdqw lpsdfw ri fxpxodwlyh odqg uhirup rq xuedq sryhuw|1 Djdlq h{sorlwlqj wklv glhuhqwldo lpsdfw ri odqg uhirup zh uxq lq froxpqv +8, dqg +9, uhjuhvvlrqv ri wkh glhuhqfh ehwzhhq uxudo dqg xuedq sryhuw| rq fxpxodwlyh odqg uhirup dqg wkh ixoo vhw ri frqwuro yduldeohv1 Qrwh wkdw frpsduhg wr froxpq +4, ri wklv wdeoh/ rqo| wkh odqg uhirup yduldeoh dqg vwdwh uhglvwulexwlyh wd{hv uhpdlq vljqlfdqw vxjjhvwlqj wkdw wkh| kdyh d uroh lq forvlqj wkh uxudo0xuedq sryhuw| jds1 Rwkhu hhfwv dsshdu wr eh frpprq wr erwk uxudo dqg xuedq vhfwruv dqg duh wkhuhiruh lqvljqlfdqw lq wklv uhjuhvvlrq1 Frqwudvwlqj froxpqv +8, dqg +9, frqupv wkdw uhvxowv duh urexvw wr wkh w|sh ri sryhuw| phdvxuh ehlqj xvhg1 Wdnhq wrjhwkhu wkh uhvxowv suhvhqwhg lq Wdeoh 7 rhuv ixuwkhu frqupdwlrq ri rxu lqlwldo qglqj ri d vljqlfdqw qhjdwlyh dvvrfldwlrq ehwzhhq odjjhg odqg uhirup dqg uxudo sryhuw|1 615151 Hqgrjhqhlw| Htxdwlrq +614, kdv qr vwuxfwxudo lqwhusuhwdwlrq dqg dv d vshflfdwlrq lw udlvhv d qxpehu ri frqfhuqv1 Fhqwudo dprqj wkhvh lv wkh srwhqwldo hqgrjhqhlw| ri wkh odqg uhirup yduldeoh1 Li odqg uhirup lv sxusrvhixoo| dlphg dw sryhuw| uhgxfwlrq/ wkhq zh zrxog h{shfw wr srolf| hruw irfxv zkhuh sryhuw| lv kljkhvw1 Zh zrxog h{shfw wklv wr eldv wkh frh!flhqw rq wkh odqg uhirup yduldeoh grzqzdug/ rwkhu wklqjv ehlqj htxdo1 Zkloh/ odjjlqj odqg uhirup dv zh kdyh lq +614, jrhv vrph zd| wrzdugv plqlpl}lqj frqfhuqv derxw wklv/ wkhuh lv vrph uhvlgxdo frqfhuq wkdw orqj olyhg vkrfnv wr sryhuw| wkdw dhfw dqwl0sryhuw| ohjlvodwlrq frxog eldv wkh uhvxowv1 Wr { wklv sureohp uhtxluhv dq lqvwuxphqw iru odqg uhirup1 Wr wklv hqg/ zh h{sorlw wkh idfw wkdw odqg uhirup lv lqwhqvho| srolwlfdo/ zlwk glhuhqw jurxslqjv lq vwdwh ohjlvodwxuhv +wkh Ylgkdq Vdekd, ehlqj pruh olnho| wr hqdfw odqg uhirup ohjlvodwlrq1 Krzhyhu/ wklv fdq eh sureohpdwlf li/ dv vhhpv olnho|/ vkrfnv wr sryhuw| dhfw zkr lv hohfwhg1 Wr plwljdwh wklv sureohp/ zh sursrvh xvlqj orqj odjv ri wkh srolwlfdo yduldeohv dv lqvwuxphqwv iru odqg uhirup1 Vshflfdoo|/ srolwlfdo yduldeohv iurp irxu shulrgv sulru wr wkh odqg uhirup +hljkw shulrgv ehiruh wkh sryhuw| re0 vhuydwlrq, duh xvhg dv dq lqvwuxphqw iru odqg uhirup1 Wklv lv ohjlwlpdwh surylghg wkdw frqwhpsrudqhrxv vkrfnv wr sryhuw| duh xqfruuhodwhg zlwk vkrfnv wkdw ohdg wr sduwlfxodu jurxsv ehlqj hohfwhg hljkw |hduv suhylrxvo|1 Vxfk dq dvvxpswlrq vhhpv ghihqvleoh jlyhq erwk wkh iuhtxhqf| ri hohfwlrqv dqg srolf| vkliwv lq Lqgld dqg ehfdxvh lw lv gl!fxow wr wklqn ri orqj odvwlqj vkrfnv dhfwlqj erwk fxuuhqw sryhuw| dqg srolwlfdo vwuxfwxuh hljkw |hduv djr1 45 Wklv vwudwhj| lpsolhv d uvw vwdjh htxdwlrq iru odqg uhirup= ,r| ' >,r|3e n @r n K| n S+r| n _5r|3e n # r| +615, zkhuh ,r| lv wkh odqg uhirup yduldeoh wkdw zh glvfxvvhg deryh/ @r lv d vwdwh {hg hhfw/ K| lv d |hdu gxpp| yduldeoh/ +r| lv d yhfwru ri yduldeohv zklfk zh wuhdw dv h{rjhqrxv/ wkh yduldeohv 5r|3e duh srolwlfdo yduldeohv uh hfwlqj wkh vhdw vkduhv ri glhuhqw srolwlfdo jurxsv/ hdfk odjjhg e| irxu |hduv1 Wkhvh duh frqvwuxfwhg iurp uhfrugv ri wkh qxpehu ri vhdwv zrq e| glhuhqw qdwlrqdo sduwlhv dw hdfk ri wkh vwdwh hohfwlrqv xqghu yh eurdg jurxslqjv1 +Wkh sduwlhv frqwdlqhg lq wkh uhohydqw jurxs duh jlyhq lq sduhqwkhvhv diwhu wkh qdph ri wkh jurxslqj1, Wkhvh duh= +l, Frqjuhvv Sduw| +Lqgldq Qdwlrqdo Frqjuhvv . Lqgldq Frqjuhvv Vrfldolvw . Lqgldq Qdwlrqdo Frqjuhvv Xuv . Lqgldq Qdwlrqdo Frqjuhvv Rujdql}dwlrq,/ +lll, d kdug ohiw jurxslqj +Frppxqlvw Sduw| ri Lqgld . Frppxqlvw Sduw| ri Lqgld Pdu{lvw,/ +ly, d vriw ohiw jurxslqj +Vrfldolvw Sduw| . Sudmd Vrfldolvw Sduw|,/ +y, Klqgx sduwlhv +Ekduwl|d Mdqdwd Sduw| . Ekduwl|d Mdqd Vdqjk,/ +yl, Mdqdwd sduwlhv +Mdqdwd Sduw|/ Mdqdwd Gdo Sduw| . Orn Gdo Sduw|,14; Zh h{suhvv wkhvh dv d vkduh ri wrwdo vhdwv lq wkh ohjlvodwxuh1 Frqjuhvv kdv whqghg wr grplqdwh wkh dvvhpeolhv ryhu wkh shulrg wkrxjk kdug ohiw sduwlhv kdyh dovr uhfrughg pdmrulwlhv lq Nhudod dqg Zhvw Ehqjdo dqg Mdqdwd sduwlhv lq Elkdu/ Kdu|dqd/ Nduqdwdnd/ Pdg|d Sudghvk/ Udmdvwdq dqg Xwwdu Sudghvk1 Ryhu wlph wkhuh kdv ehhq d ghfolqh lq wkh lpsruwdqfh ri Frqjuhvv dqg d ulvh lq wkh lpsruwdqfh ri uholjlrxv dqg uhjlrqdo sduwlhv1 Wdeoh 8 suhvhqwv hvwlpdwhv ri htxdwlrq +615, iru wkh glhuhqw nlqgv ri odqg uhirupv1 Wkh ryhudoo slfwxuh lv rqh lq zklfk srolwlfdo yduldeohv pdwwhu iru odqg uhirup ohjlvodwlrq1 Wkh srolwlfdo yduldeohv duh mrlqwo| vljqlfdqw ghwhuplqdqwv ri fxpxodwlyh odqg uhirupv ryhu wkh shulrg1 Lq froxpq +4, zh vhh wkdw/ uhodwlyh wr wkh rplwwhg rwkhu fdwhjru|/ zklfk lv frpsrvhg ri d dpdojdp ri uhjlrqdo/ lqghshqghqw sduwlhv dqg wkh Mdqdwd sduwlhv/ Frqjuhvv dqg vriw ohiw ghfuhdvh wkh suredelolw| ri hqdfwlqj ri odqg uhirup ohjlvodwlrq zkloh kdug ohiw h{huwv d srvlwlyh lq xhqfh dqg Klqgx sduwlhv duh lqvljqlfdqw1 Orrnlqj dfurvv froxpqv +5, wr +8, zh vhh wkh qhjdwlyh lq xhqfh ri Frqjuhvv lv vsuhdg dfurvv doo w|shv ri odqg uhirup exw lw sduwlfxoduo| surqrxqfhg iru whqdqf| uhirupv dqg derolwlrq ri lqwhuphgldulhv1 Wkh qhjdwlyh lq xhqfh ri vriw ohiw sduwlhv lv dovr vsuhdg dfurvv wkh erdug zlwk 4; Wkh odwwhu fdwhjru| lv qrw lqfoxghg vhsdudwho| lq rxu uhjuhvvlrqv/ exw lv lqfoxghg lq wkh rwkhu fdwhjru|1 Wklv zdv lq sduw gxh wr frqfhuqv vwhpplqj iurp rxu ryhulghqwlfdwlrq whvwv zklfk sdvvhg rqo| pdujlqdoo| zkhq wkh Mdqdwd sduwlhv zhuh lqfoxghg lq wkh lqvwuxphqw vhw1 Wklv vxjjhvwv wkdw wkh srolwlfdo prrg vzlqjv wkdw kdyh ohdg wr juhdwhu surplqhqfh ri wkh Mdqdwd sduwlhv lq fhuwdlq vwdwhv dsshdu wr eh fruuhodwhg zlwk wuhqgv lq sryhuw|1 46 wkh h{fhswlrq ri odqg frqvrolgdwlrq1 Wkh ryhudoo srvlwlyh lq xhqfh ri kdug ohiw sduwlhv/ krzhyhu/ vhhpv wr ruljlqdwh sulqflsdoo| wkurxjk d vwurqj srvlwlyh hhfw rq wkh sdvvdjh ri odqg flholqj ohjlvodwlrq1 Wklv lv lqwhuhvwlqj jlyhq rxu idloxuh wr qg hylghqfh wkdw vxfk uhirupv uhgxfh sryhuw|1 Klqgx sduw| uhsuhvhqwdwlrq dsshduv wr h{huw qr lq xhqfh rq wkh sdvvdjh ri whqdqf| uhirupv ru wkh derolwlrq ri lqwhuphgldulhv/ krzhyhu/ wkh| h{huw d vljqlfdqw srvlwlyh lq xhqfh rq odqg fhlolqj dqg d vljqlfdqw qhjdwlyh lq xhqfh rq odqg frqvrolgdwlrq hhfw zklfk khosv wr h{sodlq wkhlu ryhudoo lqvljqlfdqw hhfw lq froxpq +4,1 Wdeoh 9 jlyhv uhvxowv wkdw lqvwuxphqw odqg uhirup xvlqj wkhvh hljkw shulrg odjjhg srolwlfdo yduldeohv1 Lq froxpq +4, zh qg wkdw lqvwuxphqwhg fxpxodwlyh odqg uhirup frqwlqxhv wr kdyh d qhjdwlyh dqg vljqlfdqw lpsdfw rq wkh uxudo sryhuw| jds1 Wkh vdph uhvxow lv irxqg iru wkh uxudo khdgfrxqw lq froxpq +5,1 Lq froxpq +6, dqg +7,/ xvlqj wkh sryhuw| jds dqg khdgfrxqw uhvshfwlyho|/ zh euhdn rxw odqg uhirupv e| w|sh dqg qg wkdw erwk whqdqf| uhirupv dqg derolwlrq ri lqwhuphgldulhv uhpdlq qhjdwlyh dqg vljqlfdqw zklovw rwkhu w|shv ri odqg uhirup duh lqvljqlfdqw14< Froxpqv +7, dqg +8, frqup wkdw odqg uhirup vwloo kdv d vljqlfdqw lpsdfw lq forvlqj wkh jdsv ehwzhhq wkh uxudo dqg xuedq sryhuw|1 Wkh ryhudoo sdwwhuq lv wkxv frqvlvwhqw zlwk wkh sdwwhuqv ri uhvxowv vkrzq lq Wdeohv 6 dqg 71 Zh dovr uhsruw whvwv ri rxu ryhulghqwli|lqj uhvwulfwlrqv iru wkh lqvwuxphqwdo yduldeohv uhjuhvvlrqv1 Wkh srolwlfdo yduldeohv sdvv vwdqgdug vwdwlvwlfdo whvwv ri ryhu lghqwlfdwlrq dqg wkhuhiruh dw ohdvw rq hfrqrphwulf jurxqgv zrxog dsshdu wr eh vxlwdeoh lqvwuxphqwv iru odqg uhirupv153 Wdeoh 9 lv ehvw wkrxjkw ri dv d urexvwqhvv fkhfn rq rxu qglqjv udwkhu wkdq d fduhixoo| wkrxjkw rxw vwuxfwxudo prgho1 Wkh ryhudoo lpsuhvvlrq lv wkdw rxu uhvxowv vwdqg xs wr wklv surfhgxuh zlwk odqg uhirupv lq jhqhudo dqg whqdqf| uhirupv dqg wkh derolwlrq ri lqwhuphgldulhv lq sduwlfxodu frqwlqxlqj wr eh dvvrfldwhg zlwk sryhuw| uhgxfwlrq1 6161 Odqg Uhirup dqg Djulfxowxudo Zdjhv Lw zrxog eh vxusulvlqj li odqg uhirupv wkdw dhfwhg sryhuw| glg qrw lpsdfw rq rwkhu dvshfwv ri wkh uxudo hfrqrp|1 Lq wklv vxe0vhfwlrq/ zh frqvlghu wkh srvvlelolw| wkdw vxfk uhirupv kdyh dq hhfw rq djulfxowxudo zdjhv1 Djulfxowxudo zdjhv duh d urexvw lqglfdwru ri wkh zhoiduh ri odqgohvv oderxuhuv zklfk frpsulvh d vljqlfdqw iudfwlrq 4< Zlwk wkh h{fhswlrq ri odqg flholqjv lq froxpq +6,1 whvw zh hpsor| zklfk lv dovr nqrzq dv wkh Vdujdq whvw diwhu Vdujdq +4<8;, whvwv zkhwkhu wkh lqvwuxphqwv duh fruuhodwhg zlwk uhvlgxdov iurp wkh vhfrqg vwdjh uhjuhvvlrq +vhh Gdylgvrq dqg PfNlqqrq/ 4<<6,1 53 Wkh 47 ri wkh srru lq uxudo Lqgld +vhh Zruog Edqn/ 4<<:,1 Li odqg uhirup sxvkhv xs djulfxowxudo zdjhv wklv uhsuhvhqwv dq dgglwlrqdo phfkdqlvp wkurxjk zklfk wkhvh uhirupv fdq uhgxfh uxudo sryhuw|1 Wkh uhvxowv xvlqj wkh djulfxowxudo zdjh dv d ohiw kdqg vlgh yduldeoh duh lq Wdeoh :1 Froxpq +4, frqwdlqv uhvxowv iru wkh djjuhjdwh odqg uhirup yduldeoh1 Wklv ghprqwudwhv d srvlwlyh dqg vljqlfdqw lpsdfw ri odqg uhirup rq zdjhv1 Lq froxpq +5,/ wklv hhfw lv glvdjjuhjdwhg dfurvv w|shv ri odqg uhirup dqg vkrzv wkdw wklv hhfw lv sulpdulo| dwwulexwdeoh wr ohjlvodwlrq wr derolvk lqwhuphgldulhv1 Jlyhq wkdw wkh zdjh gdwd duh iurp d frpsohwho| lqghshqghqw gdwd vrxufh54 wkhvh uhvxowv khos wr frqup wkdw odqg uhirupv duh kdylqj uhdo hhfwv rq wkh ixqfwlrqlqj ri wkh uxudo hfrqrp|1 Wkh| dovr looxvwudwh dq lqgluhfw urxwh wkurxjk zklfk odqg uhirup pd| srvlwlyho| dhfw wkh zhoiduh ri odqgohvv oderxuhuv zkr gr qrw gluhfwo| ehqhw iurp wkh uhirupv1 Lq vhfwlrq 9 ehorz/ zh glvfxvv zk| vxfk hhfwv pljkw eh suhvhqw lq wkhru|1 6171 Odqg Uhirup dqg Jurzwk Hyhq li odqg uhirup grhv khos wkh srru/ lw frxog gr vr dw d frvw wr hfrqrplf shuirupdqfh1 Zh wxuq qrz/ wkhuhiruh/ wr h{sorulqj zkhwkhu odqg uhirup kdv d srvlwlyh ru qhjdwlyh dhfw rq djulfxowxudo rxwsxw shu fdslwd1 Lq wklv fdvh/ zh xvh orj djulfxowxudo vwdwh grphvwlf surgxfw shu fdslwd dv wkh ohiw kdqg vlgh yduldeoh lq +615, zlwk wkh uljkw0kdqg vlgh dxjphqwhg e| odjjhg orj vwdwh grphvwlf surgxfw shu fdslwd wr prgho g|qdplfv lq d yhu| vlpsoh zd| dqg wr doorz iru frqyhujhqfh ryhu wlph1 Zh wkhuhiruh kdyh d uhjuhvvlrq ri wkh irup= %r| ' b%r|3 n kr n q | n +r| n ,r|3e n 0r| +616, Wklv lv edvlfdoo| wkh vdph irup ri uhjuhvvlrq wkdw kdv ehfrph srsxodu lq wkh furvv0 frxqwu| jurzwk olwhudwxuh vxppdul}hg lq Eduur +4<<:,/ dowkrxjk rxu sdqho gdwd doorz xv wr xvh {hg hhfwv dqg |hdu hhfwv1 Zh zloo dovr frqwlqxh wr doorz iru d vwdwh vshflf DU+4, huuru vshflfdwlrq zlwk vrph ghjuhh ri khwhurvnhgdvwlflw|1 Wdeoh ; suhvhqwv wkh pdlq uhvxowv iru wkh uhjuhvvlrq ri vwdwh lqfrph shu fdslwd rq fxpxodwlyh odqg uhirup1 Lq froxpq +4, zh suhvhqw uhvxowv iru d Cu7 prgho ri wrwdo vwdwh lqfrph shu fdslwd rq odqg uhirup frqwdlqlqj rqo| vwdwh {hg hhfwv dqg 54 Wkh zdjh gdwd duh iurp R}ohu/ Gdww dqg Udydoolrq +4<<9,1 Wkh sulpdu| ruljlqdo vrxufh iru wklv gdwd lv wkh Plqlvwu| ri Djulfxowxuh dqqxdo sxeolfdwlrq Djulfxowxudo Zdjhv lq Lqgld1 Qrplqdo zdjh gdwd iurp wklv vhulhv kdv ehhq gh dwhg xvlqj wkh Frqvxphu Sulfh Lqgh{ iru Djulfxowxudo Oderuhuv wr rewdlq uhdo djulfxowxudo zdjhv1 48 |hdu hhfwv dv frqwurov1 Zh qg wkdw wkh glvdjjuhjdwhg odqg uhirup yduldeoh odjjhg irxu shulrgv kdv qr vljqlfdqw lpsdfw rq lqfrph shu fdslwd1 Lq froxpq +5, zh orrn rqo| dw djulfxowxudo lqfrph shu fdslwd1 Wklv pdnhv vhqvh jlyhq wkdw odqg uhirup lv suhgrplqdqwo| frqfhuqhg zlwk dhfwlqj surgxfwlrq uhodwlrqv lq djulfxowxuh1 Wklv vxjjhvwv wkdw whqdqf| uhirup kdv d qhjdwlyh hhfw rq djulfxowxudo rxwsxw zlwk odqg frqvrolgdwlrq kdylqj wkh rssrvlwh hhfw1 Qr hhfw lv revhuyhg iru wkh rwkhu nlqgv ri odqg uhirup1 Froxpq +6, vkrzv wkdw erwk wkh whqdqf| uhirup dqg odqg frqvrolgdwlrq hhfwv duh urexvw wr lqfoxglqj rxu rwkhu srolf| yduldeohv odjjhg irxu |hduv1 Lq froxpq +7,/ zh vkrz wkdw wkhvh hhfwv uhpdlqv zkhq djulfxowxudo |lhogv udwkhu wkdq lqfrph shu fdslwd lv wkh ohiw kdqg vlgh yduldeoh1 Lq froxpq +8, zh vkrz wkdw wkh hhfw ri whqdqf| uhirup +exw qrw odqg frqvrolgdwlrq, lv urexvw wr lqfoxglqj rwkhu srolf| yduldeohv1 6181 Vxppdu| Wdnhq wrjhwkhu wkhvh uhvxowv jlyh vrph vxjjhvwlrq ri dq htxlw|0h!flhqf| wudgh0 r iru whqdqf| uhirupv vlqfh erwk sryhuw| dqg rxwsxw shu fdslwd duh orzhu diwhu vxfk uhirupv duh hqdfwhg1 Qr vxfk wudgh0r hphujhv iru derolwlrq ri lqwhuphgl0 dulhv1 Fhlolqjv rq odqg kroglqjv gr qrw vhhp wr kdyh dq hhfw rq hlwkhu rxwsxw phdvxuhv ru sryhuw|/ zkloh odqg frqvrolgdwlrq surprwhv rxwsxw lqfuhdvhv lq djul0 fxowxuh zlwkrxw dhfwlqj sryhuw|1 Wkh idloxuh ri odqg fhlolqj ohjlvodwlrq wr vkrz dq| vljqlfdqw lpsdfw rq sryhuw| uhgxfwlrq ru rxwsxw ohyhov lv frqvlvwhqw zlwk Edugkdq +4<:3,*v fodlp wkdw vxfk uhirupv kdyh uduho| ehhq lpsohphqwhg zlwk dq| ghjuhh ri vhulrxvqhvv1 Lpsdfwv rq sryhuw| wkhuhiruh dsshdu wr eh frplqj pdlqo| wkurxjk uhirupv wkdw dhfw surgxfwlrq uhodwlrqv exw gr qrw gluhfwo| dowhu wkh glvwulexwlrq ri odqg1 Wklv lqwhusuhwdwlrq lv xqghuolqhg e| orrnlqj dw wkh olplwhg hylghqfh dydlodeoh rq wkh uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq odqg uhirupv dqg odqg glvwulexwlrq ryhu rxu gdwd shulrg1 Gdwd rq odqg glvwulexwlrq kdv rqo| ehhq jdwkhuhg e| QVV vshfldo vxuyh|v dw irxu srlqwv> 4<86087/ 4<94095/ 4<:40:5 dqg 4<;5 +vhh Vkdupd/ 4<<7,1 Zh fodvvli| vwdwhv dv kljk ru orz odqg uhirup ghshqglqj rq zkhwkhu wkh| kdg pruh ru ohvv wkdq d wrwdo ri wkuhh odqg uhirupv +ri dq| w|sh, gxulqj wkh 4<8;0<5 shulrg155 Zh wkhq lqyhvwljdwh zkhwkhu kljk odqg uhirup vwdwhv fodvvlhg lq wklv zd| h{shulhqfhg wkh odujhvw gurs lq wkh Jlql iru odqg rshudwhg dqg sursruwlrq ri odqgohvv krxvhkrogv 55 Xqghu wklv v|vwhp Dqgud Sudghvk/ Dvvdp/ Kdu|dqd/ Mdppx dqg Ndvkplu/ Pdg|d Sudghvk/ Pdkdudvkwud/ Sxqmde dqg Udmdvwkdq duh orz odqg uhirup vwdwhv zklovw Elkdu/ Jxmdudw/ Ndu0 qdwdnd/ Nhudod/ Rulvvd/ Wdplo Qdgx/ Xwwdu Sudghvk dqg Zhvw Ehqjdo duh kljk odqg uhirup vwdwhv1 49 ryhu wkh shulrg156 Wkh ryhudoo lpsuhvvlrq wkdw zh kdyh iurp wklv fuxgh h{huflvh/ lv ri shuvlvwhqw lqhtxdolwlhv lq odqg rshudwhg zlwklq erwk jurxsv ri vwdwhv +vhh dovr Vkdupd/ 4<<7,1 Wkxv wkh lghd wkdw wkh pdmru lpsdfw ri odqg uhirup rq sryhuw| pxvw frph pdlqo| wkurxjk phfkdqlvpv wkdw glg qrw lqyroyh odqg uhglvwulexwlrq jdlqv ixuwkhu vxssruw1 Wkxv lq pdnlqj vhqvh ri wkh uhvxowv/ lw lv lpshudwlyh wr wklqn derxw odqg uhirupv wkdw kdyh fkdqjhg surgxfwlrq uhodwlrqv lq djulfxowxuh udwkhu wkdq dowhulqj wkh sdwwhuq ri odqg kroglqjv1 71 Pdnlqj Vhqvh ri wkh Uhvxowv Rxu hpslulfdo dqdo|vlv vxjjhvwv wkdw sryhuw| uhgxfwlrq lv dvvrfldwhg zlwk odqg uhirup dqg wklv lv sulpdulo| dwwulexwdeoh wr ohjlvodwlrq wkdw kdv derolvkhg lqwhu0 phgldulhv dqg uhiruphg wkh whupv ri whqdqflhv1 Wkh uroh ri odqg uhglvwulexwlrq shu vh vhhpv wr kdyh ehhq ri olplwhg lpsruwdqfh lq wkh Lqgldq frqwh{w1 Wkh hpslulfdo dqdo|vlv dovr xqfryhuv vrph hylghqfh ri jhqhudo htxloleulxp hhfwv rq zdjhv1 Rxu wkhruhwlfdo prgho irfxvhv rq wzr wklqjv= d prgho ri djulfxowxudo frqwudfwlqj dqg d prgho ri oderu vxsso| e| whqdqwv1 Wkh iruphu irfxvhv rq krz uhqwv wr whqdqwv vkliw lq uhvsrqvh wr odqg uhirupv dqg wkh odwwhu jlyhv ulvh wr hhfwv rq djulfxowxudo zdjhv1 Wkhuh duh wkuhh jurxsv= odqgorugv zkr uhqw rxw odqg dv zhoo dv iduplqj vrph ri wkh odqg wkhpvhoyhv/ whqdqwv zkr uhqw odqg/ dqg odqgohvv oderuhuv1 Wkh srru duh pdgh xs suhgrplqdqwo| ri wkh odwwhu wzr jurxsv1 Whqdqwv dqg odqgohvv oderuhuv vxsso| oderu wr wkh oderu pdunhw zkhuh lw lv ghpdqghg e| odqgorugv zkr fkrrvh wr eh rzqhu0fxowlydwruv1 Whqdqwv dqg odqgohvv oderuhuv fduh derxw frqvxpswlrq/ f/ dqg oderu vxsso| 1 Wkhlu suhihuhqfhv duh ES E/ zkhuh E lv lqfuhdvlqj dqg frqfdyh dqg E lv lqfuhdvlqj dqg frqyh{1 Vxssrvh wkdw wkh djulfxowxudo zdjh lv /1 Wkhq/ dq lqglylgxdo zlwk qrq0oderu lqfrph %/ kdv rswlpdo oderu vxsso| ri W E%c / '@h}4@ i E% n / Ej Lw lv vwudljkwiruzdug wr fkhfn wkdw oderu vxsso| lv ghfuhdvlqj lq %1 Qrz ghqh E%c / ' E% n /W E%c / EW E%c / dv wkh lqgluhfw xwlolw| ri d whqdqw zlwk qrq0oderu lqfrph %1 Khqfh/ zh h{shfw odqgohvv oderuhuv wr vxsso| W Efc // zkloh 56 Iru kljk odqg uhirup vwdwhv wkh odqg jlql idoov iurp 319;9 lq 4<86287 wr 3199< lq 4<;5 +d idoo ri 3134:, zkhuhdv wkh gurs lq orz odqg uhirup vwdwhv lv iurp 31986 wr 31976 +d gurs ri 31343,1 Iru kljk odqg uhirup vwdwhv wkh dyhudjh gurs lq wkh sursruwlrq odqgohvv lv iurp 471<:( ur 45136( +d idoo ri 51<7(, zkhuhdv iru orz odqg uhirup vwdwhv wkh gurs lv iurp 45173( wr 431<4( +d idoo ri 417<(,1 4: iru whqdqwv % lv htxdo wr wkh ydoxh ri wkhlu whqdqf|1 Dv wkh ydoxh ri whqdqf| lqfuhdvhv dv uhvxow ri odqg uhirup zh zrxog wkhuhiruh h{shfw whqdqwv wr uhgxfh oderxu vxsso| wr wkh pdunhw1 Zh qrz frqvlghu wkh djulfxowxudo frqwudfwlqj sureohp ri d whqdqw dqg odqgorug1 Vxssrvh wkdw wkh rxwsxw rq d jlyhq slhfh ri odqg xqghu whqdqf| lv jlyhq e| - Ee zkhuh e ghqrwhv hruw dssolhg wr wkh odqg e| wkh whqdqw1 Zh vxssrvh wkdw wkh frvw ri wklv hruw lv vhsdudeoh iurp oderu vxsso| dqg lv phdvxuhg lq xqlwv ri glvxwlolw|1 Hruw lv dovr frpplwwhg ehiruh wkh oderu vxsso| ghflvlrq lv pdgh1 Zh dvvxph wkdw - E lv vprrwk/ lqfuhdvlqj dqg frqfdyh1 Zh vxssrvh wkdw whqdqwv qhhg wr eh prqlwruhg lq rughu wr sxw lq hruw rq wkh odqg1 Vshflfdoo|/ zh lpdjlqh wkdw d frqwudfw vshflhv dq hruw ohyho ri e1 Krzhyhu/ wkh whqdqw pd| fkrrvh wr vklun/ sxwwlqj lq }hur hruw/ lq zklfk fdvh wkh odqgorug fdwfkhv klp zlwk suredelolw| R dqg kh lv uhg/ ehfrplqj d odqgohvv oderuhu dqg uhfhlylqj d sd|r ri Ef1 Wkh whqdqw fdq qrz rqo| eh lqgxfhg wr vxsso| hruw li wkh wkuhdw ri hylfwlrq lv vx!flhqwo| vwurqj dqg vrph uhqwv duh hduqhg iurp ehlqj d whqdqw1 Vxssrvh wkhq/ wkdw wkh whqdqw uhfhlyhv d sd|phqw ri wr idup wkh odqg/ zklfk kh uhfhlyhv rqo| li kh lv qrw fdxjkw vklunlqj1 Wkxv d whqdqw lv zloolqj wr sxw lq dq hruw ohyho e dw sd|phqw li dqg rqo| wkh lqfhqwlyh frqvwudlqw E R Ec / n R Efc / Ec / e lv vdwlvhg1 Vroylqj wklv dv dq htxdolw| jlyhv wkh sd|phqw vfkhgxoh Ee qhhghg wr lqgxfh hruw ohyho e dv Eec / ' 3 # $ e Efc / n R +714, Wkh frqwudfw pxvw qrz vshfli| d sd|phqw2hruw sdlu frqvlvwhqw zlwk wklv vfkhgxoh1 Wkh rswlpdo hruw wkdw wkh odqgorug fkrrvh wr lqgxfh lv jlyhq e| e ER ' @h} 4@ ' i-Ee Eec /j 1 e Lw lv hdv| wr yhuli| wkdw e ER lv lqfuhdvlqj1 Wkh whqdqw*v htxloleulxp sd|r lv R zklfk lv odujhu wkdq wkh sd|r iurp ehlqj d odqgohvv T ER ' Efc / n eERE R oderuhu1 Lw lv vwudljkwiruzdug wr fdofxodwh wkh lpsdfw ri fkdqjhv lq R rq rxwsxw dqg wkh whqdqw*v sd|r1 Dq lqfuhdvh lq R zloo lqfuhdvh qhw0rxwsxw vlqfh e ER lv lqfuhdvlqj1 Wkh hhfw rq wkh whqdqw*v sd|r +dqg khqfh sryhuw|, lv jlyhq e|= 3 # $ # $ R T ER ' e ER e ER 2 R R 4; +715, Wkh uvw whup lv srvlwlyh dq lqfuhdvh lq wkh hylfwlrq suredelolw| holflwv kljkhu hruw dqg khqfh udlvhv wkh whqdqw*v uhqw1 Wkh vhfrqg hhfw zrunv lq wkh rssrvlwh gluhfwlrq1 Iru d jlyhq hruw ohyho/ wkh whqdqw*v uhqw lv orzhu vlqfh kh pxvw eh sdlg ohvv qrz wr suhyhqw klp iurp vklunlqj1 Zh duh lqwhuhvwhg lq fdvhv zkhuh wkh whqdqw hqmr|v d pruh vhfxuh uljkw wr wkh odqg vr wkdw R idoov1 Lq wklv fdvh/ wkh whqdqw zloo ehqhw iurp d whqdqf| uhirup wkdw uhgxfhv wkh suredelolw| wkdw kh zloo eh hylfwhg li fdxjkw vklunlqj li wkh hodvwlflw| ri hruw zlwk uhvshfw wr wkh suredelolw| ri hylfwlrq Ee ER R*e ER lv ohvv wkdq * E R1 Li whqdqwv* uhqwv lqfuhdvh iurp uhfhlylqj kljkhu whqxuh vhfxulw|/ wkhq wklv zloo ohdg wkhp wr uhgxfh wkhlu oderu vxsso| wr wkh pdunhw dqg zh zrxog suhglfw wkdw vxfk d wljkwhqlqj ri wkh oderu pdunhw zrxog ohdg wr lqfuhdvhg djulfxowxudo zdjhv157 Wklv iudphzrun fdq eh dssolhg wr wkh fdvhv ri derolwlrq ri lqwhuphgldulhv dqg whqdqf| uhirup1 Wr lqfoxgh dq lqwhuphgldu| lq wkh dqdo|vlv/ zh vxssrvh wkdw wkhuh duh wkuhh sduwlhv wr wkh djulfxowxudo frqwudfw= d whqdqw/ odqgorug dqg dq lqwhuphgldu|1 Zh ehjlq e| pdnlqj wkh vwurqj dvvxpswlrq wkdw lqwhuphgldulhv kdyh d yhu| vwurqj edujdlqlqj srvlwlrq fdq pdnh wdnh0lw0ru0ohdyh0lw rhuv wr wkh odqgorug dqg whqdqw1 Wklv lv yhu| pxfk lq olqh zlwk wkh ylhz wkdw lqwhuphgldulhv fdswxuhg wkh vxusoxv iurp wkh odqg1 Lq wklv zruog/ wkh whqdqw zloo uhfhlyh d sd|r ri T ER/ dqg wkh odqgorug zloo uhfhlyh klv uhvhuydwlrq sd|r zklfk zh ghqrwh e| u Wkh lqwhuphgldu| uhfhlyhv wkh vxusoxv d- EeER e ERo T ER u 1 Diwhu wkh lqwhuphgldu| lv derolvkhg/ wklv vxusoxv lv qrz dydlodeoh iru glvwulex0 wlrq surylghg wkdw R uhpdlqv wkh vdph1 Rqo| li wkh whqdqw rewdlqv qr edujdlqlqj srzhu dw doo zlwk klv odqgorug/ zrxog zh h{shfw wr revhuyh qr hhfw rq wkh whqdqw*v sd|0r1 Rwkhuzlvh/ zh zrxog h{shfw wr vhh wkh whqdqw*v sd|r ulvh1 Dvvxplqj wkdw whqdqwv duh d vljqlfdqw jurxs ri srru lq Lqgld/ wklv lv frqvlvwhqw zlwk rxu qglqj wkdw sryhuw| lv uhgxfhg e| wkh derolwlrq ri lqwhuphgldulhv1 Zh zrxog qrw h{shfw wr vhh dq| fkdqjh lq hruw dqg khqfh rxwsxw xqohvv R zhuh glhuhqw zkhq odqgorugv dqg lqwhuphgldulhv qhjrwldwhg frqwudfwv1 Uhqw lqfuhdvhv iru whqdqwv dovr zrxog eh dvvrfldwhg zlwk kljkhu djulfxowxudo zdjhv/ e| wkh jhqhudo htxloleulxp phfkdqlvp zh kdyh lghqwlhg1 Zh qrz wxuq wr wkh lpsdfw ri whqdqf| uhirupv1 Vxfk uhirupv duh pxowlidulrxv zklfk pdnh lw gl!fxow wr rhu d ghqlwlyh wkhruhwlfdo dffrxqw1 Wklv zrxog uhtxluh pxfk pruh lqvwlwxwlrqdo frqwhqw dv lq wkh dqdo|vlv ri Zhvw Ehqjdo*v odqg uhirupv e| Edqhumhh dqg Jkdwdn +4<<:,1 Qrqhwkhohvv/ lw lv vwloo xvhixo wr wklqn wkurxjk d vlpsoh prgho lq rughu wr fkhfn wkdw rxu hpslulfdo qglqjv frqirup wr wkh suh0 57 Wkhvh fkdqjhv lq zdjhv zrxog dovr eh h{shfwhg wr uhlqirufh uhgxfwlrqv lq rxwsxw rq idupv wkdw kluh lq oderu1 4< glfwlrqv ri wkh wkhru| odlg rxw deryh1 Vxssrvh wkhuhiruh wkdw wkh odqgorug kdv doo wkh edujdlqlqj srzhu dqg fdq pdnh d wdnh0lw0ru0ohdyh0lw rhuv wr whqdqwv ehiruh dqg diwhu wkh whqdqf| uhirup1 Zh vkdoo prgho wkh hhfw ri d whqdqf| uhirupv dv pdnlqj lw pruh gl!fxow wr hylfw whqdqwv li wkh| vklun1 Lq whupv ri rxu prgho wklv lv htxlydohqw wr d idoo lq R1 Dv zh kdyh douhdg| dujxhg/ wklv kdv wzr hhfwv1 Iluvw/ zh h{shfw hruw/ dqg wkhuhiruh/ rxwsxw wr idoo1 Vhfrqg/ zh h{shfw d fkdqjh lq wkh sd|r wr wkh whqdqw dv klv uhqw frxog jr xs ru grzq1 Zh vkrzhg wkdw wklv lv srvlwlyh xqghu uhdvrqdeoh frqglwlrqv dqg wkxv zh zrxog h{shfw sryhuw| wr eh uhgxfhg zklfk lv h{dfwo| zkdw zh irxqg lq rxu gdwd1 Wklv lv dovr frqvlvwhqw zlwk zkhq zh zrxog h{shfw djulfxowxudo zdjhv wr ulvh vlqfh lqfuhdvhg uhqwv wr whqdqflhv whqgv wr uhgxfh wkhlu oderu vxsso|1 Wr vxppdul}h/ wkh hpslulfdo qglqjv duh frqvlvwhqw zlwk d vw|ol}hg prgho ri djulfxowxudo frqwudfwlqj dqg oderu vxsso| e| whqdqwv1 Zkloh pdq| frpsolfdwlqj ihdwxuhv frxog eh dgghg wr wkh wkhru|/ wkh jhqhudo wkuxvw ri wkh wudgh0r fdswxuhg khuh lv uhohydqw158 Lw lv zhoo nqrzq wkdw lq d ydulhw| ri frqwh{wv/ uhqwv duh xvhg wr prwlydwh whqdqwv1 Wkxv/ odqg uhirupv wkdw dhfw krz djhqf| sureohpv duh vroyhg zloo w|slfdoo| jhqhudwh erwk rxwsxw dqg glvwulexwlrqdo hhfwv1 Lw dovr vhhpv sodxvleoh wkdw wkhvh uhqwv zloo dhfw oderu vxsso| dqg wkdw wklv ohdgv wr fkdqjhv lq djulfxowxudo zdjhv1 81 Frqfoxglqj Uhpdunv Wkh pdlq frqwulexwlrq ri wklv sdshu lv wr whvw zkhwkhu odqg uhirup ohjlvodwlrq lv dvvrfldwhg zlwk sryhuw| uhgxfwlrqv xvlqj vwdwh ohyho gdwd iurp Lqgld1 Wkh kljk lqflghqfh ri sryhuw| dqg wkh odujh yroxph ri odqg uhirupv hqdfwhg wr frxqwhu wklv sureohp lq wkh srvw0Lqghshqghqfh shulrg pdnh wklv dq lvvxh ri frqvlghudeoh lqwhuhvw iurp d sxeolf srolf| shuvshfwlyh1 Zh vkrz wkdw wkhuh lv urexvw hylghqfh ri d olqn ehwzhhq sryhuw| uhgxfwlrq dqg wzr nlqgv ri odqg uhirup ohjlvodwlrq whqdqf| uhirup dqg derolwlrq ri lqwhuphgldulhv1 Dqrwkhu lpsruwdqw qglqj lv wkdw odqg uhirup fdq ehqhw wkh odqgohvv e| udlvlqj djulfxowxudo zdjhv1 Wkrxjk wkh hhfwv rq sryhuw| duh olnho| wr kdyh ehhq juhdwhu kdg odujh0vfdoh uhglvwulexwlrq ri odqg ehhq dfklhyhg/ rxu uhvxowv duh qrqhwkhohvv lqwhuhvwlqj dv wkh| vxjjhvw wkdw sduwldo/ vhfrqg ehvw uhirupv zklfk pdlqo| dhfw surgxfwlrq uhodwlrqv lq djulfxowxuh fdq sod| d vljqlfdqw uroh lq uhgxflqj uxudo sryhuw|1 58 Fohduo| d frpsohwh wkhruhwlfdo wuhdwphqw zrxog uhtxluh d pxfk pruh ghwdlohg dqdo|vlv1 Iroorzlqj Edqhumhh dqg Jkdwdn +4<<:,/ lw zrxog eh srvvleoh wr lqwurgxfh lqyhvwphqw lqwr wkh prgho1 Wkh| vkrz zkhq zh zrxog h{shfw whqxuh vhfxulw| wr lqfuhdvh lqyhvwphqw lqfhqwlyhv1 53 Dv zhoo dv ehlqj lpsruwdqw wr srolf| ghedwhv lq Lqgld/ vxfk qglqjv pd| khos wr glxvh wkh pruh jhqhudo shvvlplvp wkdw fdq xqghuplqh uhglvwulexwlyh hruw lq ghyhorslqj frxqwulhv1 Lq d uhfhqw vwxg| +Zruog Edqn +4<<:,,/ pxfk hpskdvlv zdv sodfhg rq wkh uroh ri hfrqrplf jurzwk lq h{sodlqlqj wkh ghfolqh ri sryhuw| lq Lqgld1 Zkloh rxu uhvxowv duh frqvlvwhqw zlwk wklv qglqj/ wkh| hpskdvlvh wkdw uhglvwulexwlyh hruw kdv dovr sod|hg lwv sduw1 Xvlqj wkh dyhudjh qxpehu ri odqg uhirupv lpsohphqwhg/ rxu uvw frh!flhqw lq Wdeoh 6 lpsolhv wkdw d uhgxfwlrq ri wkh doo0Lqgld sryhuw| jds ri 4( fdq eh h{sodlqhg e| odqg uhirup1 Wklv lv rqh whqwk ri wkh dfwxdo uhgxfwlrq lq sryhuw| ryhu wkh shulrg ri rxu gdwd1 Wklv uhpdlqv wuxh hyhq diwhu idfwrulqj lq wkh srvvlelolw| wkdw rxwsxw shu fdslwd lv uhgxfhg e| vrph nlqgv ri odqg uhirup +Wdeoh ;,1 Vlqfh wkh hhfwv ri uhglvwulexwlyh lqwhuyhqwlrq rq sryhuw| dqg jurzwk duh qrw nqrzq d sulrul/ d vljqlfdqw olwhudwxuh kdv whvwhg wkhvh olqnv xvlqj furvv0frxqwu| gdwd1 Ehqderx +4<<9, uhylhzv wklv olwhudwxuh dqg hpskdvlvhv wkh glyhuvh qglqjv1 Zkloh dgglqj wr rxu jhqhudo xqghuvwdqglqj/ wkh gl!fxowlhv ri qglqj uholdeoh furvv0frxqwu| phdvxuhv ri uhglvwulexwlrq lv d vljqlfdqw gudz edfn lq wklv uhvhdufk djhqgd1 Wkhuh vhhpv olwwoh grxew/ wkhuhiruh/ wkdw h{sorlwlqj srolf| yduldwlrq gxh wr wkh ihghudo vwuxfwxuh ri vrph ghyhorslqj frxqwulhv pd| eh dq lpsruwdqw dg0 glwlrqdo vrxufh ri hylghqfh rq srolf| lqflghqfh1 Lw zloo dovr khos wr jhw ehklqg eurdg euxvk srolf| fdwhjrulhv vxfk dv hgxfdwlrq ru khdowk h{shqglwxuhv wkdw pdvn lpsruwdqw srolf| yduldwlrqv1 Rxu vwxg| xqghuolqhv wkdw/ hyhq zlwklq d sduwlfxodu duhd ri jryhuqphqw lqwhuyhqwlrq +l1h1 odqg uhirup,/ wkh hpslulfdo hhfwv pd| ydu| ghshqglqj rq wkh h{dfw irup wkdw wkh lqwhuyhqwlrq wdnhv1 Wklv lv wuxh/ pruhryhu/ hyhq wkrxjk rxu srolf| phdvxuhv duh wkhpvhoyhv idluo| eurdg1 Ixwxuh hruwv wr txdqwli| wkh hpslulfdo uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq jurzwk/ sryhuw| dqg uhglvwulexwlrq zloo grxewohvv ehqhw hyhq pruh iurp d ghwdlohg vshflfdwlrq ri krz sduwlfxodu srolf| lqwhuyhqwlrqv duh vwuxfwxuhg dqg lpsohphqwhg dfurvv vsdfh dqg wlph1 54 Uhihuhqfhv ^4` Dohvlqd/ D dqg Urguln/ G1 +4<<7,/ cGlvwulexwlyh Srolwlfv dqg Hfrqrplf Jurzwk*/ Txduwhuo| Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplfv 43<= 79807<31 ^5` Dssx/ S1V1 +4<<9,/ Odqg Uhirupv lq Lqgld= D Vxuyh| ri Srolf| Ohjlvodwlrq dqg Lpsohphqwdwlrq +Qhz Ghokl= Ylndv, ^6` Edqg|rsdgk|d|/ G1 +4<;9,/ cOdqg Uhirupv lq Lqgld= Dq Dqdo|vlv* Hfrqrplf dqg Srolwlfdo Zhhno|/ Mxqh 5405;1 ^7` Edqhumhh/ Deklmlw dqg Pdlwuhhvk Jkdwdn/ +4<<9,/ cHpsrzhuphqw dqg H!0 flhqf|= Wkh Hfrqrplfv ri Whqdqf| Uhirup* w|shvfulsw PLW dqg Xqlyhuvlw| ri Fklfdjr1 ^8` Edqhumhh/ D1 dqg Qhzpdq/ D1 +4<<6,/ cRffxsdwlrqdo Fkrlfh dqg wkh Surfhvv ri Ghyhorsphqw*/ Mrxuqdo ri Srolwlfdo Hfrqrp| 434= 98<09;71 ^9` Edugkdq/ Sudqde/ +4<:3,/ cLqgld/* lq Fkhqhu| hw do +hgv, Uhglvwulexwlrq zlwk Jurzwk/ R{irug= R{irug Xqlyhuvlw| Suhvv1 ^:` Edugkdq/ Sudqde +4<<3,/ Wkh Hfrqrplf Wkhru| ri Djuduldq Lqvwlwxwlrqv/ R{irug= R{irug Xqlyhuvlw| Suhvv1 ^;` Ehqderx/ U1 +4<<9,/ cLqhtxdolw| dqg Jurzwk*/ QEHU Pdfurhfrqrplfv Dq0 qxdo1 ^<` Elqvzdqjhu/ K1/ Ghlqlqjhu/ N1 dqg Ihghu/ J1 +4<<8,/ cSrzhu/ Glvwruwlrqv/ Uh0 yrow dqg Uhirup lq Djulfxowxudo Odqg Uhodwlrqv* lq Ehkupdq/ M1 dqg Vulql0 ydvdq/ W1Q1 +hg, Kdqgerrn ri Ghyhorsphqw Hfrqrplfv +Dpvwhugdp= Hovh0 ylhu,1 ^43` Fkdwwrsdgk|d|/ V1Q1 +4<<5,/ cKlvwrulfdo Frqwh{w ri Srolwlfdo Fkdqjh lq Zhvw Ehqjdo= D Vwxg| ri Vhyhq Yloodjhv lq Edugkdpdq* Hfrqrplf dqg Srolwlfdo Zhhno|/ Pdufk 5;1 ^44` Fkhqhu|/ K1 hw do +4<:3,/ Uhglvwulexwlrq zlwk Jurzwk +R{irug= R{irug Xql0 yhuvlw| Suhvv,1 ^45` Gdww/ Jdxudy dqg Pduwlq Udydoolrq/ +4<<;,/ cZk| Kdyh Vrph Lqgldq Vwdwhv Grqh Ehwwhu wkdq Rwkhuv dw Uhgxflqj Sryhuw|B*/ Hfrqrplfd/ 98/ 4:06;1 55 ^46` Gdylgvrq/ U1 dqg PfNlqqrq/ M1 +4<<6,/ Hvwlpdwlrq dqg Lqihuhqfh lq Hfrqr0 phwulfv +R{irug= R{irug Xqlyhuvlw| Suhvv,1 ^47` Guh}h/ M1 dqg Vhq/ D1 +4<<8,/ Lqgld= Hfrqrplf Ghyhorsphqw dqg Vrfldo Rs0 sruwxqlw| +R{irug= Foduhqgrq Suhvv, ^48` Guh}h/ M1S1/ Odqmrxz/ S1 dqg Vkdupd/ Q1 +4<<:,/ cHfrqrplf Ghyhorsphqw 4<8:04<<6* lq Odqmrxz/ S1 dqg Vwhuq/ Q1K1/ D Nlqg ri Jurzwk= Sdoxqsxu 4<8:04<<6 +R{irug= R{irug Xqlyhuvlw| Suhvv,1 ^49` Jrxjk/ N1 +4<;:,/ cVrflr0Hfrqrplf Fkdqjh lq Vrxwkhdvw Lqgld= 4<83v wr 4<;3v* Mrxuqdo ri Frqwhpsrudu| Dvld/ 4:+6,1 ^4:` Kr1 Nduod/ dqg Dqguhz E1 O|rq/ +4<<8,/ cQrq0ohdn| exfnhwv= Rswlpdo Uh0 glvwulexwlyh Wd{dwlrq dqg Djhqf| Frvwv/* Mrxuqdo ri Sxeolf Hfrqrplfv/ 8;/ 6980<31 ^4;` Md|dudpdq/ U1 dqg Odqmrxz/ S1 +4<<:,/ cOlylqj Vwdqgdugv lq Uxudo Lqgld= D Shuvshfwlyh iurp Orqjwlwxglqdo Yloodjh Vwxglhv* plphr Fruqhoo Xqlyhuvlw| dqg Zruog Edqn1 ^4<` Phduqv/ U1 +4<<;,/ cDffhvv wr Odqg lq Uxudo Lqgld= Srolf| Lvvxhv dqg Rswlrqv* plphr Zruog Edqn1 ^53` R}ohu/ E1 Gdww/ J1 dqg Udydoolrq/ P1 +4<<9,/ cD Gdwd Edvh rq Sryhuw| dqg Jurzwk lq Lqgld* plphr Zruog Edqn ^54` Shuvvrq/ Wruvwhq dqg Jxlgr Wdehoolql/ +4<<7,/ cLv Lqhtxdolw| Kdupixo iru Jurzwk= Wkhru| dqg Hylghqfh/*Dphulfdq Hfrqrplf Uhylhz 7;/ 93309541 ^55` Udgkdnulvkqdq/ S1 +4<<3,/ cOdqg Uhirupv= Ukhwrulf dqg Uhdolw|* Hfrqrplf dqg Srolwlfdo Zhhno|/ Qryhpehu 571 ^56` Vdujdq/ M1 +4<8;,/ cWkh Hvwlpdwlrq ri Hfrqrplf Uhodwlrqvklsv Xvlqj Lqvwux0 phqwdo Yduldeohv* Hfrqrphwulfd 59/ 6<607481 ^57` Vkdupd/ K1U1 +4<<7,/ cGlvwulexwlrq ri Odqgkroglqjv lq Uxudo Lqgld/ 4<860 87 wr 4<;404<;5= Lpsolfdwlrqv iru Odqg Uhirupv*/ Hfrqrplf dqg Srolwlfdo Zhhno|/ Vhswhpehu 57 ^58` Wkruqhu/ G1 +4<:9,/ Djuduldq Survshfw lq Lqgld +Qhz Ghokl= Doolhg Sxeolvk0 huv,1 56 ^59` Zdgoh|/ V1V1 dqg Ghuu/ E1Z1 +4<<3,/ cNdulpsxu 4<5804<;7= Xqghuvwdqglqj Uxudo Lqgld wkurxjk Uhvwxglhv* lq Edugkdq/ S1 +hg, Frqyhuvdwlrqv ehwzhhq Hfrqrplvwv dqg Dqwkursrorjlvwv +Ghokl= R{irug Xqlyhuvlw| Suhvv,1 ^5:` Zduulqhu/ G1 +4<9<,/ Odqg Uhirup lq Sulqlflsoh dqg Sudfwlfh +R{irug= R{0 irug Xqlyhuvlw| Suhvv,1 ^5;` Zruog Edqn +4<<:,/cSryhuw| lq Lqgld= 83 \hduv diwhu Lqghshqghqfh*/ Zruog Edqn plphr1 57 Table 1: Summary of Main Variables (s.d. in parethesis) state state inc. p.c inc growth yield (sdpag/ nsa) head count pov gap agric wages cum. land reform pop grow prop hard left Andra Pradesh 1004 (260) 0.021 (0.071) 0.041 (0.005) 49.40 (10.68) 14.87 (5.11) 4.53 (1.10) 1.528 (0.506) 0.020 (0.002) 0.069 (0.047) Assam 903 (196) 0.026 (0.071) 0.152 (0.017) 46.73 (8.77) 10.69 (2.67) 5.35 (1.04) 2.000 (1.069) 0.025 (0.004) 0.046 (0.042) Bihar 633 (110) 0.007 (0.102) 0.037 (0.005) 63.25 (6.17) 20.88 (4.67) 4.07 (1.01) 4.305 (1.924) 0.020 (0.001) 0.068 (0.031) Gujarat 1176 (272) 0.019 (0.135) 0.044 (0.008) 52.36 (9.13) 15.81 (4.94) 4.39 (0.78) 3.056 (1.264) 0.023 (0.003) 0 Haryana 1444 (357) 0.035 (0.086) 0.098 (0.012) 30.00 (6.90) 7.11 (2.15) 0 0 0 .025 (0.001) 0 Jammu Kashmir 1021 (228) 0.013 (0.101) 0.621 (0.058) 32.54 (7.35) 7.20 (2.59) 0 1.333 (0.717) 0.026 (0.001) 0 Karnataka 1037 (216) 0.018 (0.066) 0.045 (0.004) 52.66 (7.82) 16.99 (3.86) 3.85 (0.66) 2.833 (1.384) 0.021 (0.002) 0.014 (0.007) Kerala 864 (182) 0.019 (0.063) 0.160 (0.017) 56.59 (13.88) 19.70 (7.98) 6.24 (1.56) 5.444 (3.376) 0.018 (0.004) 0.337 (0.135) Madhya Pradesh 843 (190) 0.013 (0.106) 0.022 (0.003) 56.14 (7.08) 18.03 (4.11) 3.81 (0.83) 2.806 (0.710) 0.024 (0.001) 0 Maharash tra 1288 (331) 0.019 (0.70) 0.018 (0.002) 57.30 (7.45) 19.71 (4.38) 3.55 (0.71) 1.861 (0.424) 0.023 (0.001) 0.078 (0.038) Orissa 873 (186) 0.015 (0.128) 0.070 (0.014) 56.55 (9.04) 17.42 (4.62) 4.07 (0.85) 5.056 (3.116) 0.019 (0.002) 0.036 (0.021) Punjab 1732 (334) 0.031 (0.060) 0.113 (0.014) 24.67 (8.48) 5.54 (2.90) 8.16 (1.09) 0.75 (0.44) 0 .020 (0.001) 0.093 (0.033) Rajasthan 785 (136) 0.014 (0.144) 0.027 (0.003) 51.37 (7.37) 16.96 (3.81) 5.12 (0.68) 0.944 (0.232) 0.026 (0.002) 0.011 (0.010) Tamil Nadu 1015 (272) 0.020 (0.101) 0.052 (0.008) 54.45 (7.84) 18.58 (4.40) 3.92 (0.52) 4.917 (2.545) 0.016 (0.003) 0.042 (0.027) Uttar Pradesh 874 (140) 0.011 (0.081) 0.025 (0.002) 47.86 (7.20) 12.84 (3.14) 4.71 (1.38) 3.750 (1.251) 0.021 (0.003) 0.023 (0.009) West Bengal 1173 (191) 0.011 (0.064) 0.074 (0.007) 46.88 (10.31) 14.92 (5.32) 6.12 (1.81) 6.139 (5.581) 0.023 (0.002) 0.455 (0.256) TOTAL 1078 (556) 0.017 (0.094) 0.098 (0.141) 49.16 (13.07) 15.10 (6.27) 4.799 (1.584) 2.910 (2.749) 0.022 (0.003) 0.078 (0.142) Table 2: Important Events in Land Reforms in Indian States since 1950 State Andhra Pradesh Year 1950 (am. 54) 1952 1954 1955 1956 Title (Telengana Area) Tenancy and Agricultural Lands Act Hyderabad Abolition of Cash Grants Act Inams Abolition Act (Absorbed) Enclaves (Hyderabad Jagirdars) Act Inam (Abolition and Conversion into Ryotwari) Act Tenancy Act 1956 (am. 74) Inams Abolition Act 1957 Assam 1951 1954 1956 (am. 76) 1960 1971 State Acquisition of Zamindari Act Lushai Hills District (Acquisition of Chiefs Rights) Act Fixation of Ceiling on Land Holdings Act Consolidation of Holdings Act (Temporarily Settled Areas) Tenancy Act Description (Inter alia) Tenants received protected tenancy status; tenants to have minimum term of lease; right of purchase of non-resumable lands; transfer of ownership to protected tenants in respect of non-resumable lands; as a result 13611 protected tenants declared owners. Abolition of all the 975 jagirs in Talangena. Class. 1 Abolition of inams (with few exceptions). Abolition of all the 975 jagirs in Talangena. 2 2 Acquisition of 11137 estates; abolition of 1.06 million minor inams. (CHECK!) 2 Tenancy continues upto 2/3 of ceiling area; law does not provide for conferment of ownership right on tenants except through right to purchase; confers continuous right of resumption on landowners. Abolition of inams (with few exceptions), struck down by the High Court in 1970. Abolition of intermediary rights involving 0.67 million hectares. Same as above. 1 Self-explanatory. 3 Introduction of compulsory consolidation. 4 Classifies tenants into occupancy and nonoccupancy tenants; former has security of tenure, may acquire landlord’s right of holding by paying 50 times the land revenue; subletting is disallowed. 1 2 2 2 2 Bihar 1950 Land Reforms Act 1957 Homestead Tenancy Act 1961 (am. 73) 1961 Land Reforms Act 1973 (am. 82) Act 12 (amendment to Land Reforms Act) Act 55 Land Ceiling Act 1976 1982 Tenancy (Amendment) Act Gujarat 1986 1948 (am. 55 & 60) Bombay Tenancy and Agricultural Lands Act 1960 Agricultural Lands Ceiling Act 1969 Devasthan Inam Abolition Act Amending Act 1973 Haryana Jammu & Kashmir 1953 Punjab Security of Land Tenures Act 1955 Pepsu Tenancy and Agricultural Land Act 1962 1976 Agrarian Reforms Act Abolition of zamindari; implementation of this act very slow. Confers rights of permanent tenancy in homestead lands on persons holding less than one acre of land. Prohibits subletting, preventing sub-lessee from acquiring right of occupancy. Imposition of ceiling on landholdings of 9.7129.14 hectares (1960-1972) and of 6.07-18.21 hectare (after 1972). Introduced provisions relating to the voluntary surrender of surplus land. (Inter alia) Provided for the substitution of legal heir; ceiling area shall be redetermined when classification of land changes; ordered that the landholder necessarily retain land transferred in contravention of the Act. Provides definition of personal cultivation; provides for acquisition of occupancy rights by underraiyats. 2 Tenants entitled to acquire right of ownership after expiry of one year upto ceiling area; confers ownership right on tenants in possession of dwelling site on payment of 20 times annual rent; law does not confer any rights on sub-tenants. Imposed ceiling on landholdings of 4.05-53.14 hectares (1960-1972) and of 4.05-21.85 hectares (after 1972). Abolishes all grades of intermediary tenures, but law was partially injuncted from implementation by order of Supreme Court. Provides opportunity to acquire ownership of holdings but largely overridden by numerous provisions. Provides complete security of tenure for tenants in continuous possession of land (<15 acres) for 12 years; grants tenants optional right of purchase of ownership of non-resumable land; no bar on future leasing. Same as above. 1 Introduction of compulsory consolidation. All rights, titles, and interests in land of any person not cultivating it personally in kharif 1971 are extinguished and transferred to the state; provides for conferment of ownership rights on tenants after allowing resident landlord to resume land for personal cultivation. 4 1 1 1 3 3 3 1 3 2 1 1 1 Karnataka 1954 1955 1961 (effect. 65) Kerala Mysore (Personal and Miscellaneous) Inam Abolition Act Mysore (Religious and Charitable) Inams Abolition Act Land Reforms Act 1974 Land Reforms (Amendment) Act 1960 Agrarian Relations Act Land Reforms Act 1963 1969 (effect. 70) am. 79 1974 Madhya Pradesh 1950 Land Reforms (Amendment) Act Agricultural Workers Act 1959 Abolition of Proprietary Rights (Estates, Mahals, Alienated Lands) Act United States of Gwalior, Indore and Malwa Zamindari Abolition Act Abolition of Jagir Act Vindhya Pradesh Abolition of Jagirs and Land Reforms Act Land Revenue Code 1959 1960 Ceiling on Agricultural Holdins Act 1951 1951 1952 Abolished all the large inamdari intermediaries; process of implementation very slow. 2 Same as above. 2 Provides for fixity of tenure subject to landlord’s right to resume 1/2 leased area; grants tenants optional right to purchase ownership on payment of 15-20 times the net rent; imposition of ceiling on landholdings. Imposition of ceiling on landholdings of 4.0521.85 hectares (after 1972); removal of all but one of the exemptions from tenancy legislation. Abolishes intermediaries, but law struck down by Supreme Court. Concedes tenant’s right to purchase the land from landowners. Conferment of full ownership rights on tenants; 2.5 million tenants could become landowners; right of resumption expires; although farreaching on paper, law "not conducive to social justice" because of concealed tenancy; imposition of ceiling on landholdings of 6.07-15.18 hectares (1960-1972) and of 4.866.07 hectares (after 1972); abolition of intermediary rights. Called for employment security, fixed hours, minimum wages, etc. Abolition of intermediary rights. 1, 3 Same as above. 2 Same as above. Same as above. 2 2 Leasing prohibited; entitles occupancy tenants to owner ship rights of non-resumable area on payment of 15 times the land revenue; implementation of reform inefficient, one reason being that sharecroppers and tenants are not recorded. Introduction of compulsory consolidation. Imposed ceiling on landholdings of 10.12 hectares (1960-1972) and of 4.05-21.85 hectares (after 1972). 1 1, 3 2 1 1, 2, 3 1 2 4 3 Maharashtra 1950 1958 1961 Orissa Punjab 1951 1972 Agricultural Land (Ceiling on Holdings) Act Estate Abolition Act Land Reforms Act 1960 (am. 73 & 76) Land Reforms Act 1972 1953 ??? Punjab Security of Land Tenures Act Pepsu Tenancy and Agricultural Land Act Land Reforms Act 1955 1972 Rajasthan Hyderabad Tenancy and Agricultural Lands Act Bombay Tenancy and Agricultural Land Act 1952 1953 1953 1955 1955 1959 Land Reforms and Resumption of Jagir Act Bombay Merged Territories and Area (Jagir Abolition) Act ??? Ajmer Abolition of Intermediaries and Land Reforms Act Tenancy Act Zamindari and Biswedari Abolition Act Provides for suo motto transfer of ownership to tenants of non-resumable lands (applies to Marathawada region). Provides for transfer of ownership to tenants with non-resumable lands (with effect from 1-4-96). Imposition of ceiling on landholdings. 1 Aimed at abolishing all intermediary interests. Entitled tenants to acquire ryoti rights over entire land held by them. Provides for fixity of tenure of non-resumable area; prohibits subletting; implementation poor; financial help for purchase of ownership right lacking; most leases in form of sharecropping but sharecroppers not recorded as tenants; imposition of ceiling on landholdings of 8.09-32.37 hectares (1960-1972) and of 4.0518.21 hectares (after 1972). Introduction of compulsory consolidation. See under Haryana. 2 2 See under Haryana. 1 Permissible limit (ceiling) is 7 hectares; 5 acres of land are secured, the rest may be resumed; optional right of purchase of ownership; sharecropping not considered tenancy; tenants often coerced to "voluntarily surrender" land; land leases not registered under provision of tenancy laws. Abolishes all intermediary rights. 1 Same as above. 2 Introduction of compulsory consolidation. Abolishes intermediary interests in other areas. 4 2 Confers security of tenure to tenants and subtenants; ownership rights can be transferred; provisions of voluntary surrender made legislation "mere farce." Abolishes intermediary interests in other areas. 1 1 3 1, 3 4 1 2 2 Tamil Nadu 1948 1952 1955 (am. 65) 1956 1961 (am. 71) 1961 1969 Estates (Abolition and Conversion into Ryotwari) Act XXVI Thanjavur Tenants and Pannaiyal Protection Act Madras Cultivating Tenants Protection Act Cultivating Tenants (Payment of Fair Rent) Act Public Tenants Act Land Reforms (Fixation of Ceiling on Land) Act Agricultural LandRecords of Tenancy Right Act Occupants of Kudiyiruppu Act 1971 1976 Uttar Pradesh 1950 (am. 52, 54, 56, 58, 77) 1953 1960 (effect. 61) Rural Artisans (Conferment of Ownership of Kudiyiruppu) Act Zamindari Abolition and Land Reforms Act Consolidation of Holdings Act Imposition of Ceilings on Landholdings Act A series of laws enacted (through long intervals) for the abolition of various types of intermediaries. 2 1 Prohibits any cultivating tenant from being evicted but allows for resumption upto 1/2 of lands leased out to tenant. Abolishes usury and rack-renting. 1 1 Provides that no public trust can evict its cultivating tenants. Imposition of ceiling on landholdings of 12.14-48.56 hectares (1960-1972) and of 4.8624.28 hectares (after 1972). Provides for preparation and maintenance of complete record of tenancy rights. Provides for acquisition and conferment of ownership rightson agriculturists, agricultural laborers and rural artisans. Same as above. 1 3 1 1 1 All tenants are given complete security of tenure without any right of resumption for the landowner; leases, in general, are banned; law provided for transferring and vesting of of all zamindari estates; zamindari was abolished over 60.2 million acres (out of total state area of 72.6 million acres). Introduction of compulsory consolidation. 1, 2 Imposition of ceiling on landholdings of 16.1932.37 hectares (1960-1972) and of 7.30-18.25 hectares (after 1972). 3 4 West Bengal 1950 Bargadars Act 1953 Estates Acquisition Act Land Reforms Act 1955 (am 70, 71 & 77) 1972 1975 1977 1981 1986 1990 Acquisition and Settlement of Homestead Land (Amendment) Act Acquisition of Homestead Land for Agricultural Laborers, Artisans and Fishermen Act Land Reforms (Amendment) Act Land Reforms (Amendment) Act Land Reforms (Amendment) Act Stipulated that the bargadar and the landowner could choose any proportion acceptable to them. Landholders limited to a ceiling; provided for abolition of all intermediary tenures Provides that landowner can resume land for personal cultivation such that tenant is left with at least 1 hectare; sharecropping not considered tenancy (in West Bengal most tenants are sharecroppers); provides for land consolidation if two or more landowners agree. Tenants of homestead lands are given full rights. Over 2.5 lakh persons were given homestead land (about eight cents each) up to Jan 1991. "Raises presumption in favor of sharecroppers" (Yugandhar & Iyer, p. 48) Designed to plug the loopholes in the earlier Acts relating to the ceiling of landholdings. Sought to bring all classes of land under the ceiling provisions by withdrawing previous exemptions; provided for regulatory measures to check indiscriminate conversion of land from one use to another; law not yet fully implemented. Same as above. Land Reforms (Amendment) Act Classification Codes: 1. Tenancy Reforms 2. Abolition of Intermediaries 3. Ceilings on Landholdings 4. Consolidation of Land Holdings 1 1, 2 1, 4 1 1 1 3 3 Table 3: Land Reform and Poverty in India: Basic Results (z statistics in parenthesis)1 rural pov gap rural pov gap rural pov gap rural head count urban pov gap PGR -PGU PGR -PGU HCR -HCU (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) model GLS AR(1) GLS AR(1) GLS AR(1) GLS AR(1) GLS AR(1) GLS AR(1) GLS AR(1) GLS AR(1) lagged (t-4) cumulative land reform -0.281 (2.18) -0.443 (3.21) 0.085 (1.05) -0.534 (5.24) lagged (t-4) tenancy reforms -0.604 (2.52) -1.378 (3.13) -0.736 (3.27) -1.916 (4.37) lagged (t-4) abolition inter -2.165 (4.08) -4.354 (4.11) -1.327 (2.59) -3.364 (3.73) lagged (t-4) land cielings 0.089 (0.11) 0.734 (0.86) 0.230 (0.61) 0.888 (1.14) lagged (t-4) consolidation land 0.456 (0.82) -0.208 (0.19) -0.210 (0.42) -1.737 (1.62) state effects YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES year effects YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES no. obs. 506 300 506 506 507 507 507 507 1 All regressions are reported with robust standard errors. Table 4: Land Reform and Poverty in India: Controlling for Omitted Policy Effects (z statistics in parenthesis)2 lagged (t-4) cumulative land reform rural pov gap rural poverty gap rural head count urban poverty gap PGR -PGU HCR -HCU (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) GLS AR(1) GLS AR(1) GLS AR(1) GLS AR(1) GLS AR(1) GLS AR(1) 0.0004 (0.005) -0.413 (3.89) -1.136 (4.77) -0.295 (3.22) lagged (t-4) tenancy reforms -0.507 (2.10) -0.937 (2.00) lagged (t-4) abolition inter -1.574 (2.50) -2.715 (2.16) lagged (t-4) land cielings -0.180 (0.70) 0.076 (0.09) lagged (t-4) consolidation land -0.194 (0.37) -0.804 (0.79) population growth rate -71.49 (0.90) -80.81 (1.29) -92.32 (0.53) -86.725 (1.42) 35.203 (0.41) 159.47 (0.96) lagged (t-4) p.c. edu exp 0.041 (1.27) 0.049 (1.51) 0.035 (0.48) 0.039 (1.58) 0.044 (1.15) -0.020 (0.24) lagged (t-4) p.c. health exp 0.055 (1.09) 0.059 (1.14) 0.021 (0.18) 0.019 (0.55) 0.064 (1.09) 0.159 (1.15) lagged (t-4) p.c. other exp 0.015 (1.79) 0.013 (1.63) 0.020 (1.08) 0.015 (3.10) -0.004 (0.47) -0.030 (1.43) lagged (t-4) p.c. redis state tax -0.103 (2.17) -0.115 (2.43) -0.385 (3.45) -0.004 (0.11) -0.148 (2.81) -0.439 (3.23) lagged (t-4) state taxes as % SDP -63.27 (4.16) -59.085 (3.89) -76.403 (2.26) -29.24 (2.55) -7.85 (0.48) 15.055 (0.40) lagged (t-4) yield -19.728 (2.88) -18.704 (2.75) -34.17 (2.06) -9.35 (2.58) -5.427 (0.79) -4.673 (0.26) state effects YES YES YES YES YES YES year effects YES YES YES YES YES YES no. obs. 416 416 416 416 416 416 2 All regressions are reported with robust standard errors. Table 5: Land Policy Determination (t statistics in parenthesis)3 3 cum land reforms tenancy reforms abol inter land cielings consol land (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) model OLS OLS OLS OLS OLS lagged (t-4) cumulative land reform 0.406 (12.23) lagged (t-4) tenancy reforms 0.693 (16.26) -0.002 (0.16) -0.009 (0.38) 0.021 (1.13) lagged (t-4) abolition inter 0.041 (0.53) 0.664 (14.21) 0.109 (1.51) -0.029 (1.06) lagged (t-4) land cielings -0.131 (2.11) -0.172 (0.65) 0.631 (15.60) -0.045 (1.44) lagged (t-4) consolidation land 0.694 (5.06) -0.038 (1.14) 0.174 (2.93) 0.772 (7.85) lagged (t-4) Congress -0.460 (2.81) -0.472 (4.78) -0.098 (2.37) -0.066 (1.85) -0.075 (1.85) lagged (t-4) hard left 2.837 (2.95) 0.476 (0.72) 0.149 (0.97) 1.437 (5.46) -0.302 (0.73) lagged (t-4) soft left -3.921 (3.09) -2.363 (3.25) -1.101 (2.60) -1.990 (3.63) -0.426 (1.06) lagged (t-4) hindu parties 0.270 (0.33) -0.089 (0.19) -0.045 (0.15) 0.556 (2.01) -0.410 (2.08) state effects YES YES YES YES YES year effects YES YES YES YES YES Number of observations 474 474 474 474 474 All regressions are reported with robust standard errors. Table 6: Land Reform and Poverty in India: Instrumentation (t statistics in parenthesis)4 rural pov gap rural head count rural pov gap rural head count PGR -PGU HCR -HCU (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) model IV5 IV IV IV IV IV lagged (t-4) cumulative land reform -0.732 (6.02) -1.360 (5.68) -0.437 (3.60) -1.260 (4.45) lagged (t-4) tenancy reforms -0.998 (3.16) -2.405 (3.67) lagged (t-4) abolition inter -2.271 (2.58) -5.701 (3.65) lagged (t-4) land cielings -1.372 (2.34) 0.432 (0.39) lagged (t-4) consolidation land 1.624 (1.72) 1.969 (1.00) Sargan overid test (p-value) (p=0.99) (p=0.97) (p=0.95) (p=0.99) (p=0.92) (p=0.98) state effects YES YES YES YES YES YES year effects YES YES YES YES YES YES no. obs. 410 410 410 410 410 410 4 All regressions are reported with robust standard errors. Instruments for the endogenous policy variable (cumulative land reform lagged four periods) includes share of seats in state assembly occupied by Congress,hard left, soft left and Hindu parties lagged eight periods and land reform variables lagged eight periods (see Table 5 for first stage). 5 Table 7: Land Reform and Agricultural Wages (z statistics in parenthesis)6 6 real agricultural wages real agricultural wages (1) (2) model GLS AR(1) GLS AR(1) lagged (t-4) cumulative land reform 0.081 (2.71) lagged (t-4) tenancy reforms 0.049 (0.88) lagged (t-4) abolition inter 0.339 (2.61) lagged (t-4) land cielings 0.069 (0.09) lagged (t-4) consolidation land 0.018 (0.13) state effects YES YES year effects YES YES no. obs. 441 441 All regressions are reported with robust standard errors. Table 8: Land Reform and Growth in India (z statistics in parenthesis)7 lagged (t-1)log state inc p.c. log state inc pc log state ag inc pc log state ag inc pc yield (ag SDP /NSA) yield (ag SDP /NSA) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) GLS AR(1) GLS AR(1) GLS AR(1) GLS AR(1) GLS AR(1) 0.195 (4.17) 0.173 (3.43) 0.497 (12.53) lagged (t-1)log ag state inc p.c. lagged (t-4) tenancy reforms -0.002 (0.43) -0.037 (4.54) -0.032 (2.98) -0.001 (2.49) -0.001 (2.11) lagged (t-4) abolition inter -0.005 (0.54) 0.005 (0.27) -0.017 (0.80) -0.0002 (0.17) -0.0006 (0.35) lagged (t-4) land cielings -0.002 (0.22) 0.019 (1.26) 0.012 (0.64) 0.0007 (0.65) 0.0004 (0.34) lagged (t-4) consolidation land -0.013 (1.29) 0.065 (3.31) 0.056 (2.14) 0.003 (2.07) 0.003 (1.69) population gr. rate -2.329 (0.68) 0.214 (0.96) lagged (t-4) p.c. edu exp 0.003 (1.46) 0.0003 (2.06) lagged (t-4) p.c. health exp -0.004 (1.92) -0.0001 (0.61) lagged (t-4) p.c. other exp -0.0004 (1.16) -0.00004 (1.11) lagged (t-4) p.c. red st. tax -0.004 (1.55) -0.0003 (1.27) lagged (t-4) state taxes as % SDP 0.593 (0.74) 0.052 (0.79) lagged (t-4) yield 0.170 (0.66) 0.028 (0.42) state effects YES YES YES YES YES year effects YES YES YES YES YES no. obs. 484 484 433 488 433 7 All regressions are reported with robust standard errors.

RELATED PAPERS

RELATED TOPICS

Log In

Land Reform, Poverty Reduction, and Growth: Evidence from India*

Land Reform, Poverty Reduction, and Growth: Evidence from India*

Related Papers

RELATED PAPERS

RELATED TOPICS