Gonzalo Higuain Is Scoring, But His Brother May Be Inter Miami’s MVP

On the surface, Gonzalo Higuain’s flying start to his sophomore MLS season may feel like the most obvious reason for Inter Miami’s improved performance in Year 2 in the league.

Dive a little deeper, though, and it’s becoming possible to argue that the former Argentina national team and European club star is not even the the most important Higuain on his own team.

Gonzalo’s older brother Federico is well-known in MLS circles from his eight-year tenure with the Columbus Crew before joining his brother in Miami (after a brief stint in D.C.)

Yet no one except maybe the Higuains themselves would’ve expected Federico to make this kind of impact on manager Phil Neville’s squad at 36, an age that makes being an every week starter nearly impossible. And none of this is a slight on Gonzalo, whose four goals in five matches have him tied for third in the MLS Golden Boot race.

The statistics are pretty telling, though. Save for an an opening-weekend nightmare against the LA Galaxy, Miami has been decidedly better with Federico on the pitch in terms of the actual goals they score and concede, and marginally better in terms of the advanced stat of expected goals.

Here’s a breakdown, excluding Miami’s 0-0 draw with Nashville SC, which both brothers missed because of the death of their mother:

Miami With Federico Higuain, In Games He Appeared

• Minutes: 204
• GF: 5
• GA: 3
• xGF: 3.6
• xGA: 2.5
• xGD: 1.1

Miami Without Federico Higuain, In Games He Appeared

• Minutes: 246
• GF: 4
• GA: 5
• xGF: 4.2
• xGA: 3.4
• xGD: 0.8

NOTE: GF=goals scored, GA=goals conceded, xGF=expected goals scored, xGA=expected goals conceded, xGD=expected goal difference (Stats via MLSsoccer.com)

It’s fair to question the small sample size and point out how the difference Miami’s performance in expected goals with and without Federico is much less stark. There are also emerging metrics that go beyond analyzing the quality of chances created. One of those is goals added, unveiled last year by American Soccer Analysis, which actually suggests Miami’s most important players are an above-average back four, winger Robbie Robinson and holding midfielder Gregore.

That said, while expected goals are a popular and useful metric, they do have limitations. One of those is not accounting for the quality of a finisher on the end of a chance. Another is factoring how familiarity between players — which contributes to spacing and movement on the field — plays a role in outcomes.

There aren’t many finishers more polished than Gonzalo, and it’s hard to imagine any players being more familiar than brothers who grew up together. And both Federico’s assists have been to his brother. Those plays alone put the elder brother easily into the lead in assists-per-90-minutes at 0.88. Federico’s lone goal actually puts him third on Miami at 0.44 goals-per 90 minutes, behind his brother and Robinson.

If this is an indictment on anyone, it’s on Rodolfo Pizarro, who continues to struggle to make the impact that was expected when Miami splashed for him early in 2020. The Mexico international remains without a goal or assist in 2021, and found himself on the bench for the first time in 2021 in Miami’s win Sunday.

Federico Higuain’s age means he isn’t a long-term viable solution as a starting No. 10. But he’s helping Neville buy some time to hope Pizarro’s form comes around. And even if it does, there’s still plenty of room in MLS — and leagues all over the world — for players who make the most of 15- to 35-minute appearances. Take Philadelphia Union super sub Ilsinho, who even drew MVP consideration for his exceptional performances off the bench in 2019.

Can Federico Higuain achieve that kind of acclaim in the shadow of his superstar brother? Not likely. The way they’re playing together, it’s unlikely either will care.