ASEAN Neutrality Is Very Actual

Formally, ASEAN maintains neutrality. At the 42nd High-Level Conference in Labuan Bajo on May 9-11, 2023, ASEAN emphasized that it would not choose between China or the US. This neutrality is highly relevant and impactful, as ASEAN is closely tied to China, the global growth epicenter.

Also read: Map of the Challenges of Indonesia's Chairmanship in ASEAN 2023

However, ASEAN does not exist in a linear international relationship. As former US President Barack Obama told CNN on June 22, international relations are never clear. ASEAN has been "sore" with China's dominance in the South China Sea.

Once again, the geopolitical power is anarchic. If it needs to be tough, it will act tough. China and the US are no different, they have shown themselves as enforcing powers. The neutrality of ASEAN will be tested in the future.

Opaque neutrality

The line regarding ASEAN's neutrality currently is also ambiguous. It is unclear whether neutrality includes not taking sides with the US or China. The members of ASEAN have already taken sides before the bipolar power between the US and China occurred.

The Philippines and Thailand have become allies of the US. Singapore has become a US naval base. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) edition of August 10, 2022 wrote that Cambodia, Myanmar, and Laos are believed to support China. Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Brunei Darussalam have territorial disputes with China, which could change their neutrality in the future. In recent developments, Myanmar has already been "grasped" by China.

The ambiguity of ASEAN's neutrality is vulnerable. Regarding the US plan to deploy missile defense in Asia, it is possible that ASEAN will be dragged into it. This US missile defense system will be stationed in East Asia, said Select Committee Chairman Mike Gallagher (Republican), who is concerned about China's threat.

Also read: Stowing coals in the South China Sea

"The urgent task now is to produce and deploy a number of high-tech missile and ammunition to East Asia," said Gallagher (Politico, June 9, 2023). The required defensive weapons are Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSMs), Long Range Anti-Ship Missiles (LRASMs), anti-ship missiles (Harpoon), cruise missiles (Tomahawk), and other ammunitions."

If realized, then ASEAN will be among the missile display points. On the other hand, China already has missiles in its own sovereign territory.

The gunpowder keg

The US will also contribute to turning Asia into a powder keg, a term coined by Van Jackson on October 22, 2021 in an article titled "America Is Turning Asia Into a Powder Keg" on the Foreign Affairs website in response to China's growing strength. Jackson is a researcher at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada and a lecturer in international relations at Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand.

If these US missiles are intended to intimidate China, then East Asia is not enough. China, with its vast military power and extensive placement, stretches from East Asia to directly bordering ASEAN. Through AUKUS (US, UK, Australia), the US will deploy four Virginia-class attack submarines and one Astute-class submarine from the UK to Australia in 2027.

This would not be sufficient either. Thus there is the potential for placing US missiles outside of that. Japan has been pushed by the US to develop hypersonic weapons. This is also the establishment of a new US military base in Papua New Guinea, the placement of a radar in Palau (from the article “Who's to Blame for Asia's Arms Race? Debating the Source of Growing U.S.-Chinese Tensions By Thomas Shugart; Van Jackson, 1 December 2021, Foreign Affairs) .

All of this is reminiscent of the once hard-fought plan by US General Douglas MacArthur, who intends to control Taiwan. The goal is for the US to easily conquer China at close range. This intention was protested by the UN and canceled by US President Harry S Truman, including by sacking MacArthur.

Also read: China "Expels" US Warships from the South China Sea

However, MacArthur's way of thinking remains unchanged. The US wants to contain China by using scare tactics as a premise. The allocation of weapon placement should be broader.

Enter southeast Asia

Finally, Southeast Asia was also touched. Not in the ASEAN context, but individually the Philippines agreed again with the US regarding military cooperation. Malacanang Palace, 3 April 2023 announced four locations for bilateral military cooperation.

Those four locations are Camilo Osias base in Sta Ana, Cagayan, Lal-lo Airport in Lal-lo, Cagayan, Melchor Dela Cruz Camp in Gamu, Isabela Island and Balabac in Palawan. All of these locations are close to China's territory.

This collaboration aims to increase the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA). These locations will serve as the basis for disaster management in the Philippines, as well as humanitarian and emergency response actions.

Also read: US Military Access in the Philippines Expands, Northern Indonesia Becomes More Volatile

The spokesman of the Philippine Department of National Defense (DND), Arsenio Andolong, stated that the locations are not American military bases. The DND referred to these locations only as military logistics storage warehouses.

President Marcos Jr also stated that the base is not aimed at confronting China. However, as reported by Reuters on May 4th, the US and Philippines have developed a new guideline for bilateral cooperation under the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty. This update was requested by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

New guidelines have been issued by the Pentagon, stating a joint defense commitment if there is an attack on two countries in the South China Sea. The aim of this commitment is undoubtedly directed towards China.

Other ASEAN countries are not ruling out the possibility of joining the US military. The South Morning Post newspaper on February 11, 2023, cited a survey by the Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore of 1,308 policymakers in Southeast Asia. The results showed that the popularity of Washington rose to 61 percent from 57 percent in 2022. "Most ASEAN members secretly welcome the presence of the US military to counter China," said Carl Thayer, a retired professor of political science at the University of New South Wales, Australia, specializing in Southeast Asia.

Ideology is relative

Perhaps China will think twice if Asia becomes a showcase for US missiles. However, China can also test the limits of US defense commitments and weaken alliances. Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Mao Ning stated on April 4th that the fact is clear that the US is increasing military deployment in the region with a zero-sum mentality and pursuing self-ambition.

"The countries in the region must think about what is right for the region," said Mao. He asked the region to think about mutually beneficial actions that would bring peace and stability while also serving their own interests.

Also read: Indonesia Calls for Strengthening Nuclear Disarmament Architecture

With its maritime defense line which is no longer limited to the first island chain (first island chain), it has even reached the fifth island chain, it can be said that China will easily deter foreign military presence. China's fangs are very powerful, if the goal is war.

Amid all these factors, the neutrality of ASEAN remains crucial. It will never be clear or definitive, relative neutrality remains absolute. Furthermore, the US is a jealous power. Its strategy of fighting against two powers, namely China and Russia, will make it difficult for it to defend its allies. Ukraine is a clear example of this.

Rather than turning ASEAN into another Taiwan, Japan, or South Korea which now becomes a hostage to China-US power, ASEAN remains valid in maintaining a neutral tone. Jackson assesses that the US approach in Asia is too militaristic. This is very risky and overly emphasizes US supremacy in the midst of a changing era.

Negotiation and diplomacy are important steps in the midst of balanced power, said Zhang Yun, a professor from National Niigata University (Japan) in his article entitled "Militarizing East Asia" on the China US Focus website, January 19, 2023.

Former US Secretary of State and former National Security Advisor, Condolezza Rice, told CBS on June 22 that President Joe Biden's impulsive accusation of calling President Xi Jinping a dictator, amid the proliferation of weapons, could potentially cause harm. Former President Obama also responded to Biden by saying that ideology is not simple. Equating communism with dictatorship is worth examining.

"When I served as the President of the United States, I dealt with figures from our allies. If you ask me whether they really lead democratically, or whether their political parties also carry out ideal democracy, I have to say, no!" said Obama.

Finance Minister Janet Yellen emphasizes that despite President Biden's statement to President Xi, it is still important for the US to negotiate with China. These factors should be taken into consideration. ASEAN has strong potential to become a driver of diplomatic negotiations rather than hastily becoming a host for US weaponry. (AFP/Reuters)