Updated 6 months ago
APAC aviation to fully recover
By Ting Wei Toh, Editor at LinkedIn NewsUpdated 6 months ago
Passenger air traffic in the Asia-Pacific is set to recover to pre-pandemic levels by the first half of 2024, says the International Civil Aviation Organisation. The region has been lagging behind owing to some countries not reopening their markets as quickly as others, says ICAO's secretary general Juan Carlos Salazar.
- Thailand said its business travel segment will only fully recover to pre-pandemic levels in 2025 or 2026 owing to global economic uncertainty.
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China is now one of the airport’s top five markets for the 3Q2023.
Thank you South China Morning Post SCMP for publishing today my analysis on top international airports in Asia Pacific. As I told the SCMP “it is encouraging to see the same top 5 airports back in the rankings in August”. In a post last weekend, I provided the latest recovery data for the top 5 and pointed out Incheon International Airport Corporation overtook Changi Air Hub in Aug-2023 for the top spot. I provided SCMP the 8M2023 figures for the top 10. Check out the graphic SCMP did based on this data. https://lnkd.in/g5ceWQ2i The top 10 for 8M2023 includes (in order) Changi, Incheon, Bangkok Suvarnabhumi, Hong Kong, Taipei Taoyuan, KLIA, Tokyo Narita, Manila, Delhi and Tokyo Haneda. KLIA and Haneda reported August figures last week making it possible to assess all top 10 airports. For Aug-2023, the top 10 has HGK above BKK and includes Shanghai Pudong instead of Delhi. Pudong was in the top 10 in 2019 along with Osaka Kansai and Beijing Capital, which has dropped way down due to the opening of Beijing Daxing. Here are the 8M2023 followed by Aug-2023 international passenger traffic recovery rates for the top 15 (order is based on the top 15 from 8M2019): HGK: 48%/67% ICN: 73%/85% SIN: 84%/87% BKK: 72%/76% TPE: 67%/79% KUL: 69%/76% PVG: 35%/57% NRT: 64%/71% PEK: 22%/36% KIX: 57%/74% MNL: 80%/88% DEL: 97%/101% HND: 84%/102% DMK: 54%/59% SYD: 83%/90% Top 15 combined: 65%/76% Bangkok (BKK+DMK): 67%/71% Tokyo (NRT+HND): 71%/81% Bangkok and Tokyo were larger than Hong Kong or Taipei in 8M2023 but smaller than Seoul or Singapore at a city level. There’s been a shift in traffic from NRT to HND, which explains why HND is now fully recovered while NRT is still only 71% recovered. DMK has recovered slower than BKK as BKK has attracted more LCC traffic. During the pandemic Thai AirAsia X moved from DMK to BKK and Thai AirAsia also established a small base at BKK while Thailand’s fastest expanding carrier, Thai VietJet, is based at BKK. The North Asian airports have the biggest difference between August and YTD recovery rates given North Asia’s later reopening. North Asian airports will continue to climb in the rankings over the last few months of the year, but SIN will likely still be the top airport for the full year. As I told the SCMP, next year is hard to predict but HKIA could regain the top spot in 2H2024. I added “the final stretch of recovering to pre-pandemic levels would be the most challenging noting that Singapore and Bangkok had opened up earlier and seen traffic plateau in recent months”. The overall international passenger traffic recovery rate for the top 15 APAC airports combined was 76% in Aug-2023 and 65% for 8M2023. Association of Asia Pacific Airlines last week reported August data indicating a 67% recovery rate in international passenger traffic for 8M2023 and 77% for Aug-2023. AAPA data is based on 40 APAC carriers combined while the airport data also includes airlines from outside the region.
ICAO chief expects aviation in Asia-Pacific region to fully recover by first half of 2024 https://lnkd.in/g6EXxaZX