ISciences, L.L.C.’s Post

According to NASA's sea level change science team, if a robust El Niño develops this year, cities along the western coast of the Americas may face an increased risk of flooding. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasts that El Niño is anticipated to persist until at least April 2024. The global temperature impacts of El Niño are expected to manifest this year, attributed to a rise in the occurrence of high-tide flooding, which has the potential to inundate roads and low-lying structures with seawater. The team's analysis suggests that there could be up to five instances of 'one in 10-year' flood events—events with a one in 10 chance of occurring in any given year—during this winter in cities such as Seattle and San Diego. As we brace for the potential impacts of El Niño, vigilance and preparedness become paramount in safeguarding coastal communities from the heightened risk of flooding. #floodrisk #elniño #weatherforecast #weatherpatterns #flooding #floodprevention

Summer of 2023 was Earth’s hottest since global records began in 1880, according to scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) in New York. The months of June, July, and August combined were 0.41 degrees Fahrenheit (0.23 degrees Celsius) warmer than any other summer in NASA’s record, and 2.1 degrees F (1.2 C) warmer than the average summer between 1951 and 1980. August alone was 2.2 F (1.2 C) warmer than the average. June through August is considered meteorological summer in the Northern Hemisphere. This new record comes as exceptional heat swept across much of the world, exacerbating deadly wildfires in Canada and Hawaii, and searing heat waves in South America, Japan, Europe, and the U.S., while likely contributing to severe rainfall in Italy, Greece, and Central Europe. https://lnkd.in/dyumh7aM

Parts of Southern Africa have been experiencing a severe drought since late 2023, fueled in large part by the ongoing El Niño Southern Oscillation. Falling harvests have led to disaster declarations in #Malawi, #Zambia, and #Zimbabwe and affected countries across the region. In particular, #maize yields have fallen sharply, threatening food security for millions of households depending on this key staple for a significant share of total calories consumed on a daily basis. This new blog by Joe Glauber and Weston Anderson explores factors that may mitigate the drought’s food security impacts going forward: https://ow.ly/ejlq50RcA2k CGIAR IFPRI Africa University of Maryland NASA Goddard Space Flight Center #ClimateChange #FoodSecurity #ElNiño

SERVIR in action! Read below on how SERVIR programs strengthen water security around the world.

Further studies of the meteorite are in peril, though.

While we are already assessing below-average #snow conditions in the Italian Alps this December (see here: https://lnkd.in/daSgRgeU), we should always bear in mind two key facts. First: this is the third yr in a row with a late start of the snow season, & a below average snowpack. Although conditions for 2023/24 may change later this year, we have been already experiencing a multi-year snow #drought in the Italian Alps since at least late 2021. Second: last season, the snow drought characterized several other #mountain regions in the Med region, including the Pyrenees and Turkey. We are seeing large-scale mountain droughts that have implications for short-term to long-term water supply. In this EUMETSAT case study, we present some initial assessments of last year snow-covered area conditions across the Mediterranean mountains. This monitoring will continue! CIMA Research Foundation European Space Agency - ESA NASA - National Aeronautics and Space Administration Copernicus ECMWF SNPA - Sistema Nazionale per la Protezione dell'Ambiente ARPA Valle d'Aosta Simone Gabellani Ali Nadir Arslan

(Thanks to Marshall Shepherd for alerting me of this article) Recently, American Meteorological Society and Science News did a nice commentary about the Brown Ocean Effect and tropical cyclones. No- Brown Ocean is not Indian Ocean(!) as someone asked me-- it is the impact of soil moisture conditions as a tropical system makes landfall. This study is reported in a paper recently published in Zhi Li, Alka Tiwari, Xinxin Sui, James Garrison, Frank Marks, and Dev Niyogi. "Studying Brown Ocean Re‐Intensification of Hurricane Florence Using #CYGNSS and #SMAP Soil Moisture Data and a Numerical Weather Model." Geophysical Research Letters 50, no. 19 (2023): e2023GL105102- and I presented it at the American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting. [Fun fact! -- I have been trying to get away from powerpoint presentations and this was one such - though not entirely by design I must admit! The no power point conversation, really allowed for a story telling experience which I enjoyed and I think the audience also resonated with. So I might do more - perhaps with minimal slides if not no slides- in the future]. This study incidentally, was part of a NSF grant (Chungu Lu Nic Anderson), and NASA CyGNSS project (Will McCarty Chris Ruf Mahta Moghaddam Sujay Kumar Hassan Dashtian). The study provides observational evidence of the important role of soil temperature and the soil moisture controls on the tropical cyclone/hurricane rainfall. Ph.D. student Sasanka Talukdar continues to study this issue further and will update as we get new results. Indeed Marshall Shepherd and Joseph Santanello and the NASA team continues to make important progress on this topic as well and we should hear more on this topic in coming years. As the article quotes, if we look for the brown ocean effect- we will find it! https://lnkd.in/g_3GVgPG

Antarctic ice shelves are held back by pinning points where they touch the seafloor. These act as anchors and help buttress the land-based glaciers, slowing their movement. A new study shows these anchors are dwindling at an accelerating rate. The study published by scientists at the University of Edinburgh tracked the behaviour of pinning points over a 50-year period using the bulges they create on the surface as a yardstick. As the ice shelf thins, it floats higher, reducing the interference with seafloor obstacles, which lessons the size of the bulges they create. The changes were then measured with satellite images dating back to 1973.   From 1973 to 1989 only 15% showed thinning, but by the 2000 to 2022 period this had increased to 37%. A continuation of this trend would further reduce the buttressing potential of ice shelves, enhancing ice discharge and accelerating the contribution of Antarctica to sea-level rise. Much of the thinning is seen in West Antarctica (including Thwaites and Pine Island) and the Antarctic Peninsula but areas of East Antarctica are also affected. The study can also confirm the locations where warmer water is undermining the sub-ice-sheet, melting it from below. It’s a neat study and a good approach to using existing data to gain new knowledge. News: https://lnkd.in/eRyPm6bx Full paper: https://lnkd.in/eMYCXFby #climatechange #antarctica #sealevelrise #glaciers

"The Concordia Research Station in Antarctica recorded a provisional low temperature of -117.76ºF (-83.2ºC) on July 25, marking the world’s lowest temperature in six years. The figure, still subject to official validation, was shared by Italy’s Antarctic Meteo-Climatological Observatory, along with data from the nearby Dome C II Automatic Weather Station, which also registered sub 112ºF (-80ºC) temperatures on July 24 and 25." From SnowBrain at the WUWT article https://lnkd.in/dC4PuE7h So, I decided to go and pull the Data for Dome C II AWS myself from the AMRDC Depository at the University of Wisconsin at Madison to see what happened in July of 2023, for that is my Moto: "I believe in Data" 😉 The Result is in the next Post. Read the entire WUWT here: https://lnkd.in/dZDBhKQk The last Section in the WUWT piece about an Australian Antarctic Station Mawson where temperatures have been pretty even and COLD since 1954 to the Present by Jennifer Marohasy who writes the following: "Temperatures down there oscillate within a relatively narrow band, showing no statistically significant long-term warming trend. This is the case whether considering the actual historical measurements, or the temperatures subsequently adjusted by the Bureau before incorporation into other databases. It is also the case if we just consider the June maximum temperature since records began until last month – at Mawson." https://lnkd.in/dCR3vSYp My Next Post will be that July 2023 from Dome CII near Concordia Station, stay tuned much more to follow!