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Brazil by Shirazi 2006
- 1. Country Risk Analysis Brazil Jan 2006 By: Sadegh Shirazi Global Finance Chair ® All Rights reserved 2005
- 3. Content !Overview analysis !Political !Economy analysis !BOP analysis !Risk analysis !Strengths & Weaknesses
- 4. OVERVIEW ! Location - Eastern South America, bordering the Atlantic Ocean ! Area – 8,511,965 sq km boundaries!quot;!total: 14,691 km ! Land border countries: Argentina 1,224 km, Bolivia 3,400 km, Colombia 1,643 km, French Guiana 673 km, Guyana 1,119 km, Paraguay 1,290 km, Peru 1,560 km, Suriname 597 km, Uruguay 985 km, Venezuela 2,200 km ! Natural resources - bauxite, gold, iron ore, manganese, nickel,! phosphates, platinum, tin, uranium, petroleum, hydropower, timberquot; ! Land use - arable land: 6.96% permanent crops: 0.9% other: 92.15% (2001)
- 5. OVERVIEW(cntd) !Irrigated land - 26,560 sq km (1998 est.) !Natural hazards - recurring droughts in northeast; floods and occasional frost in south quot; !Population - 186,112,794 (July,2005 est.) structure!- !Age 0-14 years: 26.1% (male 24,789,495/female 23,842,715) 15-64 years: 67.9% (male 62,669,392/female 63,719,631) 65 years and over: 6% (male 4,549,552/female 6,542,009) (2005 est.)
- 6. OVERVIEW(cntd) growth rate - 1.06% (2005 est.) !Population !Ethnic groups - white 53.7%, mulatto (mixed white and black) 38.5%, black 6.2%, other (includes Japanese, Arab, Amerindian) 0.9%, unspecified 0.7% (2000 census). !Religions #Roman Catholic (nominal) 73.6%, Protestant 15.4%, Spriritualist 1.3%, Bantu/voodoo 0.3%, other 1.8%, unspecified 0.2%, none 7.4% (2000 census). – Portuguese (official), Spanish, English, !Languages French. – 86.4% total population !Literacy
- 7. History of Brazil ! Following three centuries under the rule of Portugal, Brazil became an independent nation in 1822. By far the largest and most populous country in South America, Brazil overcame more than half a century of military intervention in the governance of the country when in 1985 the military regime peacefully ceded power to civilian rulers. Brazil continues to pursue industrial and agricultural growth and development of its interior. Exploiting vast natural resources and a large labor pool, it is today South America's leading economic power and a regional leader. Highly unequal income distribution remains a pressing problem.
- 9. Government and Political Figures ! Conventional Name: Federative Republic of Brazil ! Government type: federative republic ! Capital: Brasilia ! Constitution: 5 October 1988 ! Legal system: based on Roman codes; has not accepted compulsory ICJ jurisdiction.
- 10. Government and Political Figures(Cntd) ! President# Luiz Inacio LULA DA SILVA (since 1 January 2003), ! Vice President# Jose ALENCAR (since 1 January 2003), note - the president is both the chief of state and head of government. cabinet: appointed by the presidentquot; ! elections: president and vice president elected on the same ticket by popular vote for four-year terms; election last held 6 October 2002 (next to be held 1 October 2006, with a runoff on 29 October 2006 if necessary); runoff election held 27 October 2002
- 11. Government and Political Figures(Cntd) ! Legislative branch - bicameral National Congress or Congresso Nacional consists of the Federal Senate or Senado Federal (81 seats; three members from each state and federal district elected according to the principle of majority to serve eight-year terms; one-third elected after a four-year period, two-thirds elected after the next four-year period) and the Chamber of Deputies or Camara dos Deputados (513 seats; members are elected by proportional representation to serve four-year terms) ! Judicial branch: Supreme Federal Tribunal (11 ministers are appointed for life by the president and confirmed by the Senate); Higher Tribunal of Justice; Regional Federal Tribunals (judges are appointed for life); note - though appointed quot;for life,quot; judges, like all federal employees, have a mandatory retirement age of 70
- 12. The Election Result (25th May, 2003) Next to be held in 2007 Chamber of Deputies Federal Senate (seats by party ) (seats by party ) 71, 14% 21, 4% 22, 4% 4% 4% 91, 19% 5% 1%1% 26, 5% 1% 6% 26, 5% 14% 24% 15, 3% 49, 10% 84, 16% 17% 11, 2% 23% 12, 2% 6, 1% 74, 14% 5, 1% PMBD PFL PT PSDB PDT PSB PMBD PFL PT PSDB PDT PL PTB PPS PSD PP PSB PL PTB PPS PP other PCdoB PRONA PV note - many congressmen have changed party affiliation since the most recent election
- 13. Political Analysis Brazil, Latin America's largest economy, is set to hold ! presidential and legislative elections in October 2006. Until June, most analysts expected Luiz Inacio quot;Lulaquot; da Silva to easily win re-election. Lula has been president since 2003 and has won widespread praise for his market-friendly policies despite his leftist past. ! However, the corruption scandal that hit the ruling Workers Party (PT) weakened Lula and his government and it's unclear whether or not he plans to run again and if so whether he will win. The scandal has even generating calls for Lula to be impeached. ! Nevertheless, Lula remains surprisingly popular despite the scandal.
- 14. Political Analysis A Datafolha/Folha de Sao Paulo poll in October found that Lula ! would win more votes than his leading contender, Sao Paulo mayor and former health minister Jose Serra. The poll showed that Lula would get 30 percent of the vote, while Serra would get 27 percent, while other candidates got 10 percent or less. However, if there were a runoff with only Lula and Serra, Lula would get 41 percent, less than Serra at 45 percent, the same poll shows. If Lula decides to not run for re-election, a likely candidate from his ! own party would be finance minister Antonio Palocci, who is also popular among local and foreign investors. Either way, a pro-business candidate should win the election, ! whether it be Lula, Serra or Palocci. Combined with the impressive economic growth and fiscal stability in Brazil so far, investors are likely to maintain or boost their stake in Brazil even leading up to the elections - unlike the situation last time, when the fear of a Lula victory nearly paralized local and foreign investments in Brazi.
- 15. Economy Analysis
- 16. Economic overview Possessing large and well-developed agricultural, mining, ! manufacturing, and service sectors, Brazil's economy outweighs that of all other South American countries and is expanding its presence in world markets. From 2001-03 real wages fell and Brazil's economy grew, on ! average, only 2.2% per year, as the country absorbed a series of domestic and international economic shocks. That Brazil absorbed these shocks without financial collapse is a tribute to the resiliency of the Brazilian economy and the economic program put in place by former President CARDOSO and strengthened by President LULA DA SILVA. In 2004, Brazil enjoyed more robust growth that yielded increases in employment and real wages. The three pillars of the economic program are a floating exchange rate, an inflation-targeting regime, and tight fiscal policy, all reinforced by a series of IMF programs. The currency depreciated sharply in 2001 and 2002, which ! contributed to a dramatic current account adjustment
- 17. Economic overview(ctnd) In 2003 and 2004, Brazil ran record trade surpluses and ! recorded its first current account surpluses since 1992. Productivity gains - particularly in agriculture - also contributed to the surge in exports, and Brazil in 2004 surpassed the previous year's record export level and again posted a current account surplus. While economic management has been good, there remain important economic vulnerabilities. The most significant are debt-related: the government's largely domestic debt increased steadily from 1994 to 2003 - straining government finances - before falling as a percentage of GDP in 2004, while Brazil's foreign debt (a mix of private and public debt) is large in relation to Brazil's small (but growing) export base. Another challenge is maintaining economic growth over a period of time to generate employment and make the government debt burden more manageable.
- 18. Macroeconomic adjustment in 2005 budget surplus reached a record ! Primary 4,84% in 2005, above the country’s and the IMF’s targets, equivalent to US$39 billion. However, taking into account US$64 billion of interest payments, the overall budget is in deficit to 3,29% of GDP, compared with 2,67% in 2004.
- 19. Macro-economy analysis Currency unit – Brazilian Real (US$ 1=BRL 2.331) ! SDR exchange rate for Brazilian Real (16 Jan, 2006 ): ! SDR/Unit = 0.30 Unit/SDR = 3.296230 Major Trading Partners: ! Imports: US 18.3%, Argentina 8.9%, Germany 8.1%, China 5.9%, Nigeria 5.6%, Japan 4.6% (2004) Exports: US 20.8%, Argentina 7.5%, Netherlands 6.1%, China 5.6%, Germany 4.1%, Mexico 4% (2004) GDP - Purchasing Power Parity $1.492 trillion (2004 est.) !
- 20. GDP - composition by sector 100 90 80 70 60 50 %GDP 40 30 20 10 0 Agriculture Industry Services
- 21. Inflation 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 Inflation (%) 15.0 14.7 10.0 6.1 5.2 4.7 10.4 9.4 5.0 0.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005(f) 2006(f) -5.0 !quot;#$%&'()*+,)-
- 22. Real Exchange Rate (Real per US$) 3.5 3.0771 2.9251 2.9208 3 2.3577 2.331 2.5 1.8301 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2006
- 23. Real GDP (percentage changes) ' & % ,-./+012+(3445./+6 7)+89.4:-* $ # quot; ! * * !quot; !$ !# !% () +() !& #! #! #! #! !' #! #! Source: COFACE
- 24. GDP – Per Capita 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 G P per capita in U D S$ Source: IMF,Latin business chronicle
- 25. Foreign Trade in U.S. Dollars Value : U. S. $ billion quot;%! quot;#! quot;!! <=>7?@A BC>7?@A ;! D?.E-+F./.4G- $H1+87/5C4+% '! %! #! ! #!!quot; #!!# #!!$ #!!% #!!& #!!' Source: Coface
- 26. BOP Analysis • Liquidity ratio • Solvency ratio
- 27. Liquidity Ratio Current Account / GDP (%) $ # quot; ! 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005(f) 2006(f) Hquot; H# H$ H% H& Source: COFACE
- 28. Liquidity Ratio Debt Service Ratio quot;!! J! ;! I! '! &! %! $! #! quot;! ! #!!quot; #!!# #!!$ #!!% #!!& #!!' Source:COFACE
- 29. Solvency Ratio Debt / GDP Ratio '! &! %! $! #! quot;! ! .//0 .//. .//1 .//2 .//3456 .//7456 Source:COFACE
- 31. Composition of Debt-Sept 2005 62% IFI's Official bilateral creditors Com ercial banks m Other private 12% creditors 15% 11% Source: IIF
- 32. Risk Analysis
- 33. COUNTRY RATING Rating : B rating watchlisted with positive implications since December 2004 « An unsteady political and economic environment is likely to affect further an already poor payment record ». Source: Coface
- 34. Index of payments arrears 1997-2005 (Coface)
- 35. Country Credit Rating Rank Six month One-year Country Rate March Sept 2005 change change 2005 137 115 Argentina 26.4 6.3 4.2 83 85 Uruguay 37.8 0.4 4.3 67 66 Brazil 48.2 1.5 5.6 32 30 Chile 71.6 1.6 4.1 Source: Institutional Investor
- 36. Corruption Perceptions Index 2005 Country Rank 2005 CPI score Argentina 97 2.8 Brazil 62 3.7 &' $quot;% Uruguay Chile 21 7.3 Source: Transparency International
- 37. Human Development Index (HDI) Country Rank Argentina 34 Brazil 72 Chile 43 Uruguay 46
- 38. Risk assessment After three catch-up years, an economic slowdown should develop in 2006 due ! notably to sagging domestic consumption and insufficient investment. The public sector financial situation has remained precarious despite the ! generation of comfortable primary surpluses and the favourable treatment obtained by Argentina following the restructuring of its bond debt in June 2005. Although that operation also allowed Argentina to sharply reduce its foreign debt, it still has very high debt ratios and substantial financing needs. Although foreign exchange reserves nonetheless rose due to substantial trade ! surpluses and capital repatriation, that trend should wane. Meanwhile, the banking sector is still shaky despite modest improvement. The run-up to presidential elections in 2007 will hardly be conducive to progress ! on structural reforms, particularly concerning the business environment, financial system, and price adjustments for privatised public services. In that context, business-to-business credit has been gradually resuming and the ! financial health of export-oriented companies has been better than that of companies focusing on the domestic market. Subsidiaries of foreign companies have been more cautious, however, due notably to uncertainties concerning the legal and judicial framework.ms.
- 39. Overall Risk Assessment Weaknesses Strengths - The public debt burden is very heavy - Brazil boasts abundant natural with maturities too short. resources with a relatively diversified - The external debt level is unsustainable economy. over the long haul. - Fiscal and monetary policy has been - External financing needs are too great in prudent and pragmatic. comparison to currency earnings due to - Domestic market potential and low the debt amortisation burden. labour costs have continued to attract - The low level of savings — which foreign investors. government financing needs essentially - The current level of real permits gobble up — has been impeding private company investment. Brazilian companies to be competitive. - The new president has little room for - The country enjoys international maneuvers, squeezed by his electors' financial community backing. aspirations for change, the need to reach compromises with coalition partners, and by economic restraints.
- 40. Overall Risk Assessment Social & Political stability Economic growth prospects Domestic financial stability External competitiveness
- 41. Overall Risk Assessment Balance of payments sustainability Debt servicing capacity Overall MT perspectives
- 42. Sources Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) ! Cofacerating ! Country Watch ! World Bank ! The Institute of International Finance (IIF) ! International Monetary Fund (IMF) ! Latin Business Chronicle ! UNDP ! Rating & Investment Information ! Standard & Poor’s ! Transparency International ! Kurtzman Group ! Institutional Investors !